Art of the Deal meets science of deeds   – Firstpost

The best sobriquet Donald J Trump would prefer for himself is the “Don of Deals”. Life’s all about cracking deals for the 45th and the 47th POTUS, who has “been making deals all my life”.

In his 1987 ‘business Bible’, Trump: The Art of the Deal, he bragged about his skills in clinching deals. Though American journalist Tony Schwartz claimed to be Trump’s ghost-writer, the book hit the New York Times (NYT) bestseller list at the No. 1 spot and stayed there for 48 weeks.

In 2016, Trump made a ‘deal’ with voters by promising to “drain the swamp in Washington, D.C.” In his swashbuckling style, he rolled like a juggernaut through American politics with his anti-establishment and grievance-drenched campaign against Democrats and the Republican old guard.

Eight years later, in 2024, Trump made another ‘deal’ with voters who had been “wronged and betrayed” and promised “retribution”. “I’m being indicted for you,” he said conflating their grievances with his four indictments. He swept US politics like a tsunami by breaking Grover Cleveland’s two non-consecutive terms record and bagging 312 electoral votes.

Has Trump met the conditions of the 2024 deal as he completes 100 days of his second term on April 30?

An American president’s first 100 days aren’t an official barometer of his success but rather an unofficial metric system of assessing achievements that started with the 32nd POTUS, Franklin D Roosevelt (FDR).

In Roosevelt’s first 100 days, Congress passed 15 major laws during Phase 1 of the New Deal, which steered the US through the Great Depression and World War II. FDR’s leadership and guidance culminated in the passage of the Emergency Banking Relief Act, Emergency Conservation Work Act, National Industrial Recovery Act, Banking Act, Federal Emergency Relief Act and other important legislation.

Roosevelt unknowingly set the 100-day benchmark for future presidents with his milestones.

On the other hand, Trump’s governance mantra is divide, disrupt, dislodge and rebuild. The presidency’s metamorphosis and its overreach in the second term are flabbergasting.

The president’s critics have termed this period destabilising, a power grab blitzkrieg, an assault on democracy, civil liberties and the Constitution and an alienation of traditional American allies.

‘Deal’ with voters on immigration, economy

On day one, Trump signed a raft of 26 executive orders. His 139 executive orders beat FDR’s record of 99 in his first 100 days though he has signed only 5 Bills into law.

On the domestic front, Trump has kept several of his campaign promises. According to a 
Washington Post tracker, of the 31 key campaign promises, 8 haven’t happened and 5 face roadblocks.

However, he has failed to fulfil the two biggest promises in his deal with voters: tackling immigration and the economy (especially inflation).

Regarding his anti-immigration promise, Trump declared a national emergency at the US-Mexico border, resumed the 2017 border construction, designated cartels and international gangs as “global terrorists” and promised to “eliminate the presence of all foreign gangs and criminal networks” in America.

However, despite a sixfold increase in tackling immigration, especially arrests and detentions, compared to his first term, Trump will probably fail to deliver on his promise of deporting one million illegal immigrants annually.

Though the administration has taken 175 immigration-specific executive actions, a preliminary estimate by the Center for Immigration Studies—an independent, non-partisan and non-profit research organisation—shows there are 
15.4 million illegal immigrants, according to the January 2025 Current Population Survey.

Regarding high grocery prices, Trump promised during the campaign that “
inflation will vanish completely. “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down starting on Day One,” he said—an economic impossibility he sold to voters. Voters, stung by high inflation during Joe Biden’s term, re-elected him hoping he would deliver.

Last November, inflation tanked from its peak of 9 per cent in 2022 to 2.7 per cent. In January, when Trump took office, the consumer price index (CPI) was up 3 per cent, an increase from 2.9 per cent in December compared to a year ago. CPI ended up a seasonally adjusted 0.2 per cent for February, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.8 per cent.

March inflation decreased by only 0.1 per cent, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4 per cent—though consumer prices fell for the first time in nearly five years.

Trump’s gargantuan tariffs have jolted consumers.

Consumer sentiment in April 
sank by 8 per cent, the fourth-lowest level since 1952, from 57.0 to 52.2, according to the University of Michigan’s latest survey. The year-on-year decline was 32.4 per cent from 77.2 per cent in April 2024.

The index of consumer expectations has plummeted 32 per cent since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession, with drop-offs in personal finances and business conditions.

“Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead,” survey director Joanne Hsu said in a press release.

Subsequently, the National Association of Business Economists revised its 2025-end expected inflation from only 2.3 per cent to 3.4 per cent.

Trump’s approval rating in the first 100 days is the lowest for a new US president, according to several recent polls.

A Post-ABC News-Ipsos 
poll shows that only 39 per cent of adults approve of Trump, a CNN/SSRS 
poll 41 per cent and an NBC News Stay Tuned 
poll 45 per cent.

An Associated Press-Norc Center for Public Affairs Research 
poll shows Trump’s approval rating at 39 per cent while a NYT/Sienna College 
poll shows 42 per cent.

Trump also had the lowest approval rating in the first 100 days 
of his first term, according to the Gallup Poll, at 41 per cent. None of his predecessors since Dwight D Eisenhower had a 100-day approval rating below 55.

Many Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration and the economy.

The Post/ABC poll shows 53 per cent disapprove of his handling of immigration.

According to the CNN/SSRS poll, 45 per cent approve of Trump’s action on immigration, down 6 points from March, and 53 per cent are confident of his ability to deal with it, down from 60 per cent in December.

Per the NBC News Stay Tuned poll, 49 per cent approve of the way Trump is handling border security and immigration.

On the economy, the Post/ABC polls found that 73 per cent feel the economy is in bad shape and 53 per cent feel it’s worse. Seventy-two per cent say his economic policies will very or somewhat likely cause a recession in the short term. Sixty-two per cent see prices rising and 71 per cent see his tariffs as a negative factor in inflation.

The CNN poll shows that 71 per cent of Americans feel that economic conditions are poor while 59 per cent feel that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions. Only 34 per cent are enthusiastic or optimistic about the economy, 29 per cent pessimistic and 37 per cent afraid. Only 52 per cent feel confident in his ability to deal with the economy.

Trump’s approval ratings on inflation are 35 per cent and on handling the economy at a career low of 39 per cent—28 per cent feel inflation is the biggest economic problem facing their family, 15 per cent cost of living in general and 16 per cent food prices.

The NBC poll finds Trump’s approval rating on handling inflation and the cost of living is around only 40 per cent.

However, Team Trump broadly supports the president’s radical policies and the astonishing pace with which they have been implemented, especially on immigration, tariffs and slashing of the federal bureaucracy.

The White House is firm on moving ahead with Trump’s jolting and disruptive decisions despite court hurdles.

Mega tariff ‘deal’ with the world

“The golden age of America has only just begun—it will be like nothing that has ever been seen before,” Trump said in his second inaugural speech referring to the post-WWII economic boom.

In his biggest deal with the world that he promised would usher in the golden age, Trump slapped sweeping reciprocal tariffs on Liberation Day (April 2). “This will be indeed the golden age of America. It’s coming back. We will come back very strongly,” he said.

In declaring a national emergency to increase America’s competitive edge and strengthen its economic security, Trump slapped a baseline tariff of 10 per cent on 184 nations, which included 57 countries that were hit with explosive “reciprocal tariffs”.

The current effective tariff rate on imports worth around $3 trillion is 27 per cent—the highest in more than 100 years—as against 2.5 per cent on January 1.

The tariffs were necessary to close massive trade deficits with other nations ($1.2 trillion in 2024), restore the US manufacturing base, stop other countries from taking advantage, ensure fair trade and protect American workers, Trump thundered.

“It’s the golden rule for our golden age. Access to the American market is a privilege, not a right,” the White House said.

While Trump claims to be an ace businessman, how could he not anticipate the stock market bloodbath?

On April 2, futures linked to the S&P 500 lost 3.9 per cent, Nasdaq-100 4.7 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.7 per cent. In two days, the S&P lost 10 per cent, the Nasdaq Composite 11 per cent and the Dow 9.48 per cent—the largest two-day loss of more than $6.6 trillion.

When the bond market crashed with the 10-year yield surging to 4.5 per cent and the 30-year yield rising to 4.92 per cent, Trump, in his usual cavalier approach, paused the reciprocal tariffs except for China, which faced a 145 per cent tariff, for 90 days.

Markets rallied. The S&P 500 jumped by 9.5 per cent (the biggest single-day increase since 2008), the Nasdaq Composite 12.2 per cent and the Dow 7.9 per cent.

Did Trump apply his deal-making tactics in the tariff war?

“I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after,” he writes in the book. He aimed high in imposing massive reciprocal tariffs and kept on pushing China by increasing the duties.

Trump further writes that he doesn’t “trust fancy marketing surveys. I do my own surveys and draw my own conclusions”. Again, he went ahead with his mindboggling tariffs though economists and prominent CEOs, including his closest pal and DOGE boss Elon Musk, sounded the alarm.

Trump never gets “too attached to one deal or one approach” and keeps “a lot of balls in the air because most deals fall out no matter how promising they seem at first”. That’s how he’s dealing with China, which imposed retaliatory tariffs in three tranches—34 per cent, 84 per cent and 125 per cent—and vowed to “fight to the end” with the US.

Now, Trump says tariffs on China will “come down substantially” soon. “We’re going to have a fair deal with China,” he told reporters on April 23 though Beijing denied any such negotiations as “groundless”.

In the book, Trump writes: “We won by wearing everyone else down” referring to a deal about a property on NYC’s West 34th Street by wearing down competitors. Last week, Chinese social media was abuzz with the news that China was evaluating exemptions for 131 US products.

Trump also believes that the “worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead”. It explains the 90-day pause, and now Trump claims that 75  nations are “kissing my ass”.

However, China, the EU and Canada are not negotiating with the US.

Stock markets have lost trillions of dollars.

Trump’s drastic economic overhaul has US trading partners, CEOs, small businesses and consumers staring at an uncertain future. Investor confidence in US assets, including the dollar, has been jolted.

In its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF has steeply reduced the 2025 US economic growth to only 1.8 per cent from 2.8 per cent in 2024.

Moreover, the tariffs have triggered fears of a global recession. A _
Reuters_
 poll of more than 300 economists covering 50 economies shows 92 per cent of them terming the tariff impact ‘negative’ with 60 per cent saying that the chances of a global recession are high or very high.

A majority of Americans also term the tariffs bad policy. The CNN/SSRS poll shows that 55 per cent feel Trump’s tariff war is bad policy with 53 per cent saying the same thing about the tariffs slapped specifically on Chinese goods.

Besides, 72 per cent of Americans say the tariffs will hurt the economy in the short term and 53 per cent feel the same in the long term. Sixty per cent feel the US global standing would be hurt and 59 per cent their finances.

Setback to promised foreign ‘deals’

Trump’s biggest setback in the first 100 days has been his failure to deliver as a “candidate of peace”.

In several election rallies in 2023 and 2024, Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine War in 24 hours—an impossible task.

“I am the only candidate who can make this promise: I will prevent World War Three,” he told the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland in March 2023.

“Before I arrive in the Oval Office, I will have the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine ended. I will get the problem solved and I will get it solved in rapid order and it will take me no longer than one day,” he said to claps and cheers.

“A search of the 
Roll Call Factba.se database, which catalogues Trump’s public remarks, shows that he made the absurd claim, at least, 53 times.

Trump might have dealt with and beaten strong rivals as an NYC business tycoon, but no world leader can match the formidable Vladimir Putin in smartness, shrewdness and powerplay.

Putin has dealt with five American presidents, eight British prime ministers (PMs), three Chinese leaders and six NATO secretary generals.

Despite two lengthy phone calls with Putin and several trips to Moscow by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s billionaire real estate friend and his leading man for West Asia, Russia-Ukraine talks and Iran nuclear dialogue, Putin hasn’t even agreed to a 30-day ceasefire.

Putin is fighting a grinding war of attrition in which he has already tired out his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, and frustrated Trump, who is finally caving in. He’s ready to recognise Russian-occupied Crimea and Putin, in return, has made a small concession by declaring a 72-hour truce.

Realising the absurdity of his claim to end the war, told Time magazine last week that he had said it 
in jest.

Trump, who claims he’s the best friend Israel can have, also promised during the campaign trail to end the Gaza war by using his deal-making experience.

“THE HORRIBLE ATTACK ON ISRAEL, MUCH LIKE THE ATTACK ON UKRAINE, WOULD NEVER HAVE HAPPENED IF I WERE PRESIDENT – ZERO CHANCE!” Trump posted on 
Truth Social  a day after the Hamas terror attacks on October 7, 2023.

A day before his inauguration, Trump hogged the limelight after Witkoff convinced Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar, which persuaded Hamas, to agree to a three-phase ceasefire. However, both Trump and Netanyahu never intended to go beyond Phase 1 of the ceasefire despite Hamas’s willingness.

Israel resumed the Gaza military operation with Trump’s tacit approval on March 18. In the latest Israeli airstrikes on Gaza on Monday, 40 people were killed, taking the death toll since October 2023 to more than 52,000.

Trump also approved a new emergency arms package worth around $3 billion to Israel in February, including thousands of 2,000-pound bombs for $2.04 billion.

Trump’s most revolting U-turn on Gaza was his plan to turn the coastal enclave into “Riviera of the Middle East” by relocating Palestinians to neighbouring countries like Jordan and Egypt, amounting to ethnic cleansing.

Moreover, Trump has expanded the US involvement in West Asia by ordering massive airstrikes under Operation Rough Rider against the Houthis in Yemen on March 15. The Houthis, who were attacking cargo vessels and warships in the Red Sea in solidarity with Hamas since 2023, had stopped the attacks after the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. If Trump had insisted on allowing Phase 2, the Houthis wouldn’t have resumed the attacks.

The blistering and merciless American bombing campaign, involving 800 strikes so far, has killed more than 250 people with the latest airstrike killing 68 African migrants at a detention centre in Saada.

The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.