India urgently needs Russia’s Su-57 to maintain air dominance – Firstpost

In February 2004, US Air Force (USAF) pilots realised the formidability, ingenuity and tactical brilliance of their Indian Air Force (IAF) counterparts and admitted to having been decisively beaten.

It was the first Cope India, an annual exercise between the USAF and the IAF, at the Gwalior Air Force Station.

The F-15, a fourth-generation air superiority fighter with no combat losses and maximum recorded kills by the Israeli Air Force, was pitted against the IAF’s fourth-generation Mirage 2000, Su-30MK and the MiG-29.

The IAF achieved a 9:1 kill ratio in mock engagements.

“The outcome of the exercise boils down to (the fact that) they ran tactics that were more advanced than we expected…They could come up with a game plan, but if it wasn’t working, they would call an audible and change (tactics in flight),” Colonel Mike Snodgrass, commander of the 3rd Wing (Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska), told the Aviation Week & Space Technology magazine.

According to USAF Colonel Greg Newbech, “I pity the pilot who has to face the IAF and chances the day to underestimate him because he won’t be going home.”

The IAF’s winning star, however, wasn’t a fourth-generation jet—it was the third-generation MiG-21 Bison, an upgraded version of the Russian-made baseline third-generation MiG-21. “The two most formidable IAF aircraft proved to be the MiG-21 Bison…and the Su-30MK Flanker,” Snodgrass said. The Bison’s low radar visibility, instantaneous turn rate, acceleration and helmet-mounted sight, coupled with high-off-boresight R-73 air-to-air missiles, beat the F-15Cs.

Fifteen years later, the Bison proved its prowess again. The old warhorse shot down a Pakistan Air Force (PAF) F-16 during Pakistan’s Operation Swift Retort in February 2019.

In the 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan wars too, the IAF Gnats beat the PAF’s superior F-86 Sabres, earning the moniker “Sabre Slayer”.

Aerial combat beyond dogfight

However, Operation Sindoor saw a paradigm shift in aerial combat—a different kind of ‘dogfight’. The IAF and PAF hadn’t breached each other’s airspace yet were engaged.

Pakistan claimed to have shot down three Rafales, one MiG-29 and one Su-30MKI. According to the PAF, its Chinese-made J-10C jet’s PL-15E beyond visual range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAM) took down the Rafales. Pakistan hasn’t provided any visual evidence of its claim.

Dogfight is increasingly becoming obsolete.

A jet with a big radar envelope and loaded with a 400-km PL-17 or 300-km PL-15 BVRAAM doesn’t need to engage with an enemy aircraft at close range.

The PL-15’s export version, PL-15E, has a range of around 145 km, comparable to the Rafale’s longest-range AAM, Meteor (150-200 km). However, considering the close China-Pakistan alliance, Beijing secretly supplying the PL-15 to Islamabad can’t be ruled out.

After the India-Pakistan ceasefire, the Internet was rife with rumours of a Chinese Xi’an Y-20 military transport aircraft landing in Pakistan with a stockpile of weapons. If China supplied the weapons, it could have included the PL-15. In that case, the J-10C could have fired the PL-15, not the PL-15E.

Aerial warfare has dramatically changed with the advent of fifth-generation jets and the development of sixth-generation aircraft.

A fifth- or a sixth-generation jet’s stealth features, super-cruise performance, low-probability-of-intercept-radar, advanced avionics, situational awareness and command, control and communications capabilities make it superior to third- and fourth-generation warplanes.

The US and China have taken the traditional dogfight to another level by introducing artificial intelligence (AI).

In September 2023, a USAF X-62A VISTA (Variable In-flight Simulator Aircraft) jet, a modified F-16 that can fly autonomously, was 
involved in several dogfights with a manned F-16.

The VISTA, which had two pilots for monitoring but who never took over flying, performed both defensive and offensive manoeuvres. Both jets flew 1,200 miles per hour with the VISTA coming within 2,000 feet of the F-16 and doing vertical manoeuvring.

The winner wasn’t revealed.

On the other hand, China has developed “Red Eye,” an AI system built by the Northwest Institute of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering, Xianyang, that can decisively beat a human pilot.

Pitted against an F-15 in a simulated environment, Red Eye’s cutting-edge optical sensors sensed before the pilot could manoeuvre by detecting the minutest deformation in the jet’s rudder and elevator and reading the intent signalled by the metal’s minor movements.

The AI system shattered the unpredictability advantage a pilot had over algorithms by using its 
predictive modelling and sophisticated infrared vision, according to a study published in the December 2024 issue of the Journal of Gun Launch & Control.

Human pilots rely on instinct and unpredictability, but every physical manoeuvre has mechanical precursors,” senior engineer Lin Zhiwei wrote in the study.

Fifth- and sixth-generation warplanes

The US has F-22 and F-35, Russia Su-57, China J-20 and J-35 while Turkey is developing the TAI TF KAAN and South Korea KAI KF-21 Boramae.

The next leap is the development of sixth-generation fighter jets. The US is developing the F-47 to replace the F-22. The US Navy wants the F/A-XX to replace its F/A-18 Super Hornet.

China is leading in sixth-generation jet development. Beijing is developing two such jets whose prototypes have already been flown.

The J-36 is being developed to counter the US B-21 Raider, which will replace the B-1 Lancer and the B-2 Spirit.

The J-36 can also block the airspace to the US base of Guam for around two hours from 1,000 km away.

The J-50 is meant to counter the US F-47.

Russia is also developing a sixth-generation aircraft unofficially known as MiG-41 under the PAK DP programme to replace the MiG-31.

The UK was developing the Tempest to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon under the Future Combat Air System. Later, the Tempest programme was merged with Japan’s Mitsubishi F-X programme under the Global Combat Air Programme to develop a sixth-generation jet with Italy joining the project.

Pakistan on way to acquiring a fifth-generation jet

Neither India nor Pakistan have a fifth-generation fighter. However, there’s a difference. The Pakistani military controls the government and continues to arm itself to the teeth despite economic collapse and begging for IMF assistance.

Pakistan always tries to match India’s military capabilities, especially air power. Like India, which modified the Jaguar to deliver nuclear gravity bombs, Pakistan also modified its Mirage III and Mirage V to be nuclear-capable. Similarly, Pakistan bought the J-10C to counter the Rafale.

Now, Pakistan wants to acquire the J-35A, which can tilt the airpower equilibrium in its favour with India still relying on fourth-generation jets.

In January, the PAF okayed the purchase of 40 J-35As, the land-based variant of China’s second fifth-generation aircraft. Pakistan is expected to get the jets by the first quarter of 2026, which will increase the PAF’s deterrence. The delivery was fast-tracked after General Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of China’s highest military leadership body, the Central Military Commission, met Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir in Islamabad.

The J-35, with a max take-off weight of 28,000 kg, has a formidable payload: six internal and six external hardpoints.

The internal weapons bay, with a payload of 2,000 kg, carries six AAMs, like PL-10, PL-15 and PL-21, precision-strike munitions (PGMs), 12 small diameter bombs, four large deep-penetration bombs of 500 kg, four supersonic land-attack missiles or anti-radiation/anti-ship missiles.

The external hardpoints, with a payload of 6,000 kg, can also carry six AAMs, like the PL-17, PGMs, 18 small bombs and four large bombs of 500 kg or four land-attack missiles.

In another technological leap, the J-35’s internal weapons bay has been modified to carry four PL-17s with foldable fins or two with fixed fins.

India urgently needs a fifth-generation jet

When Pakistan acquires the J-35, the IAF will be at a massive disadvantage. Moreover, the IAF operates only 30 squadrons, much below the sanctioned strength of 42, and 8 more squadrons are set to retire over the next decade.

“It will give them [Pakistan] an advantage,” Air Chief Marshal AP Singh said in March.

It’s not that India doesn’t realise the importance of a fifth-generation jet.

However, it took 15 years before a fifth-generation jet project was approved. In 2009, the UPA government commissioned a feasibility study for a medium combat aircraft (MCA).

In 2024, the NDA government approved the project, which was called the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a 5.5-generation aircraft with an initial budget of Rs 15,000 crore to develop five prototypes.

The Mark 1 variant will have fifth-generation tech and the Mark 2 will have incremental sixth-generation technology upgrades. The IAF wants seven AMCA squadrons (126 aircraft) in two phases. The first two squadrons will have General Electric’s F414 engines and the rest indigenous 110-kilonewton engines.

However, the first prototype will not be ready before 2026-27 and the first test flight not before 2028. The 10-year project means that production will not begin before 2035.

Moreover, there’s the issue of who will produce the AMCA—HAL or a private firm. HAL’s LCA Tejas Mk-1A project is already late and it has to develop four prototypes of Mk-2. In February, IAF chief Singh said that he was “not just confident of HAL” citing the delay in delivery and upgrade.

On the other hand, no private aviation company is experienced enough to assemble and deliver a small or midsize aircraft. Moreover, a massive investment is needed to set up a manufacturing facility and a skilled workforce that can be trained properly.

India’s only option to match Pakistan—though it is too late—is to purchase a fifth-generation jet that will augment the IAF’s fighting capability in the next 10 years.

Even IAF chief Singh said, “We may have to go in for off-the-shelf purchases with indigenous content until AMCA is developed—or develop AMCA at a faster pace.”

India’s only option is Su-57

India has two options for purchasing a fifth-generation aircraft: the F-35 or the Su-57E (export variant). Both the US and Russia have offered their fifth-generation jets to India.

During the Aero India 2025 show in February, Russia’s state-owned defence exports company Rosoboronexport offered the Su-57E and its local production to India.

“Rosoboronexport, together with United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), proposes to localise FGFA aircraft in India. This production of the FGFA at the HAL plant might take place as early as 2025. It can be provided this year itself,” a Rosoboronexport representative said during the airshow.

On day one of Aero India, UAC CEO Vadim Badekha told the Russian media that the Su-57 is “needed by the Indian Air Force as the next step in the evolution and development of our aviation industries”.

During the airshow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US, where President Donald Trump said, “We are also paving the way to provide India with F-35 stealth fighters.” It was a clear counteroffer to dissuade India from buying the Su-57.   Vice-president JD Vance echoed Trump’s offer during his India visit in April.

Which of the two jets is better suited for the IAF?

The Su-57E has a clear advantage over the F-35.

First, the F-35A, the conventional landing-and-take-off variant, costs around $80-$110 million per unit. The Su-57 costs around $35-$40 million. Besides, the F-35’s maintenance cost is much higher than the Su-57E’s.

Second, the US doesn’t allow allies, like Israel, Australia, Italy, Japan and others, which use the F-35 to manufacture it under licence. They only produce components and offer maintenance services.

Third, user countries can’t modify the F-35 without US permission with the US controlling its hardware and software.

On the other hand, India has been manufacturing the Su-30MKI under licence. Before the air show, Rosoboronexport director general Alexander Mikheev offered “supply of ready-made aircraft, the organisation of their joint production in India as well as assistance in the development of an Indian fifth-generation fighter”.

Russia made the offer more lucrative in March by allowing India to use its Su-30MKI production infrastructure to produce the Su-57E. “In case of a positive decision by the Indian side, the production of the Russian fifth-generation Su-57E fighter jet can be started at the factories currently producing the Su-30MKI fighter within a short time,” Rosoboronexport said.

Fourth, India will have to buy the AIM-120 advanced medium-range AAM to use the F-35 because it will need US permission to modify the jet to carry non-NATO and indigenous missiles.

Fifth, the IAF already operates seven different types of combat jets—MiG-21, SEPECAT Jaguar, MiG-29M, Sukhoi Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000-5, Rafale and Tejas. Sustaining and maintaining seven different types of jets involves a huge expense. Purchasing a costly fifth-generation American jet will be a logistical nightmare, increasing the IAF’s maintenance, repair and overhaul issues.

Sixth, the F-35 has been plagued by technical problems. In January 2023, 
Business Insider 
reported several problems in the F-35: “stealth coating, sustained supersonic flight, helmet-mounted display, excessive vibration from its cannon and even vulnerability to being hit by lightning”.

Seventh, German magazine Der Spiegel reported in January 2015 that NSA intelligence contractor and whistleblower Edward Snowden’s leaked documents revealed that Chinese hackers had stolen 50 terabytes of data about the design of Australia’s F-35. Australia is one of the major US allies that operates the F-35.

The hackers gained access to the F-35’s radar systems, engine schematics, designs to cool exhaust gases and the method used to track targets.

The J-35A has an uncanny resemblance to the F-35, like the tailplane wing design instead of the canard wing in China’s first stealth aircraft, the J-20.

In November 2024, USAF Chief of Staff General David W Allvin told the Air and Space Forces Magazine in an interview that “you could put it [J-35A] side-by-side and see, at least, where we believe they got their blueprints from.”

If China is aware of the J-35 technology, it would be foolish for India to purchase it—especially considering Beijing’s closeness to Islamabad.

The most important consideration is how the Su-57 will perform against the J-35A. India will face the J-35A in a war with Pakistan or China.

The J-35A is stealthier than the Su-57 due to its superior materials and design. The J-35A’s radar cross-section is smaller (0.2-0.3 sq m) compared to that of the Su-57 (0.1-0.5 sq m), making it harder for an enemy radar to detect it.

The Su-57 scores over the J-35A in several other important areas. Its max take-off weight is 35,000 kg, payload 10,000 kg, fuel capacity 10,300 kg, maximum speed Mach 2 (high altitude) and combat range 1,250 km,

The J-35’s max take-off weight is 28,000 kg, payload 8,000  kg, fuel capacity 7,200 kg, maximum speed Mach 1.8 (high altitude) and combat range 1,250 km.

The Su-57’s 360-degree thrust vectoring makes it more manoeuvrable in dogfighting than the J-35.

The Su-57’s Byelka radar system comprises the N036-1-01 nose-mounted X-band active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, two smaller N036B-1-01 X-band AESA radars mounted on the sides of the forward fuselage and two N036L-1-01 L-band arrays on the wing’s leading edge extensions that are also used for electronic warfare. The radar system has 360° coverage, a maximum detection range of 400 km and can track 60 targets simultaneously and engage with 16.

China hasn’t revealed the name of the J-35’s radar system. The FC-31 Gyrfalcon stealth prototype, from which the J-35 was developed, used the KLJ-7A AESA radar system. The J-35 has an electro-optical/infrared sensor mounted under the chin, optical apertures around the body to provide full spherical coverage and a conventional heads-up display. The KLJ-7A can simultaneously track 15 targets and guide missiles on 4 of them.

The Su-57, a bomber, ship hunter and air defence suppressor, has six hardpoints internally and externally.

The four internal bays can carry two short-range K-74M2 AAMs (50 km), which can engage targets at a high off-boresight angle of 75 degrees. The four long-range K-77M AAM (200 km) use an AESA radar for guidance.

The two long-range R-37M AAMs (400 km) have Mach 6 speed and can also destroy airborne early warning jets, heavy bombers and tankers.

The Su-57 can carry, at least, two KAB-250 precision-guided bombs, its standard gravity weapon. The jet can also carry an unspecified number of KAB-500 penetrator bombs.

The two satellite-guided PBK-500U Drel gliding cluster bombs can destroy mass armoured formations, like a tank column or an entire missile battery.

The two Kh-59MK2s (290 km) are the Su-57’s primary air-to-ground (AGM) missiles. The four Kh-38 AGMs (70 km) take out less well-defended and fortified targets. The jet can carry more Kh-38s if not carrying the Kh-59MK2.

The four Kh-58UShKe anti-radiation cruise missiles (250 km) have Mach 3.6 speed. The two anti-ship Kh-35U cruise missiles (>250 km) can approach their targets just four metres above water.

The external hardpoints can also carry a wide array of missiles and bombs.

According to a 
report in February, Russia is testing a new version of the air-launched hypersonic ballistic missile Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (2,000 km, Mach 10) for the Su-57—though it will compromise its stealth features if carried externally.

This month, Russia 
unveiled the Su-57M1, an advanced version of its upgraded Su-57M, quipped with AI-assisted systems integrated with the avionics suite. The AI systems assist the pilot in navigation, target acquisition and system diagnostics, reducing his workload.

The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. He tweets as @FightTheBigots. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.