India must be ready for China’s ‘fusion warfare’ as it rises globally – Firstpost

When a third world country begins its rise, the world gets uncomfortable finding a new competitor. The existing system which the hegemon (US) has been comfortable with does not seem to be working anymore. As is often said in the military, some are not falling in line. Geopolitical supremacy is toxic, and when a country is high on this intoxication, it is difficult for it to rehabilitate; it has to undergo doses of detoxification. World history has it, and we are observing it play out currently.

Sole hegemon, the United States of America, is undergoing doses of detoxification. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been knocking on the doors of the superpower US to climb down the supremacy ladder and make space for them.

Fusion-Centric Warfare

Militarily, if Operation Sindoor is anything to go by, the PRC has become a threat to the US, at least in the South China Sea. The ‘fusion-centric warfare’ that the PRC demonstrated using terrorists, ISI and Pakistan armed forces as a front is a clear demonstration of its cynical prowess. Long-range radar inputs backed with updates from the Baidu satellite network and the integration of very long-range air-to-air (PL 15) and air-to-surface missiles facilitate the engagement of airborne targets even before they become a threat.

The air combat technique is moving away from close air combat. This is also a wake-up call to Bharat to modernise its armed forces towards deepening their ‘Fusion Centric Warfare’ capabilities, particularly the Air Force. The drones, as an essential component of ‘fusion centricity’, will also play a major role in any engagement with the PRC by any country. The US has much to critically examine in its warfighting philosophy.

Coming back to geopolitics, occasional defiance of the US by Russia results only in their calibrated response, which reflects apprehensions in the absence of a very clear military edge. The US is using levers of state power, such as economic and military, to threaten its competitors with the intention of wanting them to fall in line. Additionally, the US has a head of state who has demonstrated the will to use those powers by resorting to threats and bullying.

Simultaneously other nations too are climbing the developmental ladder and watching these traits carefully. Some of these traits are also being practised in the form of coercion, economically and militarily.

Look at the PRC; it is enlarging its circle of influence by way of luring countries under the garb of development, which is often embedded with a debt trap. One look at the entire Indo-Pacific, and answers will be forthcoming. Simultaneously, the PRC is proving its newly developed weapon systems through its ‘client state’/ ‘autonomous region’ Pakistan, often fuelling them to engage in limited wars & acts of terrorism. The PRC wants to allay the complaints of its systems not being battle tested.

All means being used in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by the PRC are to keep Bharat engaged in expensive regional conflicts. PRC is also encouraging nations in Bharat’s neighbourhood to create geopolitical complexities. The latest limited conflict between India and Pakistan must be seen through this prism to understand the complicity of the PRC. High-ranking visits from Pakistan to the PRC before and after the recent conflict point to this understanding. Essentially, it has been the PRC’s effort to keep Bharat bogged down and prevent its emergence in a leadership role in the IOR.

It was not a straightforward terror attack in Pahalgam by Pakistan Army/ISI-hired organisations but a conflict fuelled by the PRC. The declaration of immediate support to the terror state came on the first day of the conflict. Subsequent emphasis by the PRC for its ironclad friendship was also reflected in the modification made to the UNSC statement, which shielded the act of terrorism in Pahalgam by its client state, Pakistan.

The PRC promised replenishment of weapon systems which were destroyed by the Indian armed forces’ successful attacks. The PRC has also been shielding terrorists by not declaring them so in the UNSC, which leaves no doubt in the minds of analysts that conflict with Pakistan is, in reality, a PRC-India clash.

Pakistan’s economy, infrastructure, weapon systems and platforms are all Chinese (barring a few). In Pakistan, the PRC has found a client state which is run by terror makers of the world whose guns are pointing towards Bharat. We are facing China in every conflict with its client state, Pakistan.

In this geopolitical disorder, it appears that a new order may emerge which could be more regional in nature than global since generating world consensus on any issue has become difficult. Multipolarity seems to be on the cards. Last week there was the annual Copenhagen Democracy Summit where ‘retreat in democracy’ was discussed at length. Most participants were convinced that the vital centre of democracy has been on the backfoot in Europe and the US for a decade during which it has been in retreat. Former US President Joe Biden had described the current state of global politics as a contest between “democracies and autocracies”.

In this summit, President Trump’s demands for Greenland and the Panama Canal attracted criticism. The opinion was that great global dangers to democracies were Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Walter Russel Mead, the ex-Wall Street intellectual and Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute, in his recent article, has mentioned that “democratic societies require leaders who understand the realities of their time and can inspire their fellow citizens to support the policies their countries need.” He goes on to mention, “It is the elites and the establishments of the democratic world who are failing.”

This brings my attention to our own Bharat, which has a Prime Minister in Narendra Modi who stands tall amongst world leaders. While leading Bharat towards the third-largest economy in the world, creating an ecosystem which has catapulted Bharat as a country with one of the highest numbers of start-ups, rapid infrastructure development, bringing women into the development process, pulling over 200 million people out of poverty and encouraging technology-driven armed forces, apart from many other facets of development. The UPI payment system and the Aadhar card-driven financial system, added to the introduction of the centralised tax mechanism GST, have made revenue a predictable commodity. Every aspect of human development is being addressed. These changes are pushing India towards becoming a tech-driven, industrialised country which supports the economies of its neighbourhood.

Bharat’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific and its cooperation with Russia, Central Asian Republics, the African Union, West Asia, Southeast Asia, and South China Sea countries, eg, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Pacific Islands, etc, are stable and very respectful. Economic partnerships with Australia, Japan, France, the EU, the UK, ASEAN, etc, are all on the upswing. The armed forces have demonstrated their skill in peacetime as well as war. Bharat is a preferred security partner in IOR. Global partnerships in maritime security have spread far and wide. In the G20, Bharat’s leadership role was commendable.

Problems with the neighbourhood are understandable. Having gained independence around the same time, some of them are envious of the progress of Bharat. Their attempt to create roadblocks should not slow down Bharat from its larger aim of achieving its rightful place in the world. As far as the PRC is concerned, it already has much headway, whereas Bharat seeks to grow parallelly and not competitively.

As far as the Kashmir issue is concerned, it is not a discussed issue in the world anymore. It is an attempt by the PRC to lure Pakistan to resort to terrorism, hyphenate India and get the world’s attention back on Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). J&K is an Indian state with an elected government; unfolding development has generated satisfaction amongst citizens. Economic activities have begun in full earnest after years of cross-border terror attacks. Attitudinal change amongst people of J&K was very evident when the entire J&K was on the roads to demonstrate against the terror attack in Pahalgam, seeking punishment for Pakistan.

Pakistan is an irritant and should be given only that much space. Our real challenge to progress is from the PRC. Its encirclement of Bharat by economic coercion in the neighbourhood, many times by graft; the construction of dual-use infrastructure in the Indian Ocean Region; and its ingress of submarines and warships are larger long-term issues. In a recent article in National Interest, Hudson’s Director of Development of South Asia, Aparna Pandey, says, “Every crisis in Islamabad distracts New Delhi from emerging as a dependable pole in an increasingly multipolar world. By keeping India’s strategic vision trained upon the subcontinent, China forestalls the broader recalibration that would enable New Delhi to project power beyond its immediate periphery.”

Our recent infra development in the maritime sector and strengthening of the naval combat power not only adds to sustainable security assets but also contributes to the nation’s economy by way of infrastructure and manufacturing, which leads to job creation. Bharat’s reach in the maritime domain is vast, and it should be utilised for increasing our footprint not only in the IOR but also in the wider Indo-Pacific.

Our ability to take G2O along is a big advantage and also in consonance with our civilisational ethos of ‘Vasudhaiv Kutumbakam’. Bharat has the capability and resources to handle regional irritants while playing its leadership role in the IOR. As we head towards becoming a US $5 trillion economy, security of neighbouring countries in the IOR would be an important ingredient for peace and stability for the growth of all in the region. Each neighbour would have a stake in the Indian economy. PM Modi’s mantra of MAHASAGAR and neighbourhood first is the true path to achieving the goal of a larger leadership role in the world.

The geopolitical churn of the world is in full flow. The shifting sands of the US and the activities of the deep state and PRC in our neighbourhood must be analysed, and strong messages must be conveyed to neighbours. Bangladesh is slipping into unruly turbulence each day. Our intelligence agencies and security forces would surely be on alert for any action that may be required at short notice. Our demonstrated ability to maintain leadership in IOR and reach in the Indo-Pacific must be accompanied by countering PRC’s mischief, which encourages its client state, Pakistan, to commit acts of terror.

Time for Bharat to continue its pursuit to accelerate economic growth and build capacities/capabilities to fight “fusion-centric warfare”.

The author is Chairman, Trustee Board of India Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.