As Gaza suffers complete lockdown, hopes for early end to the war fade – Firstpost

Gaza is under a complete clampdown after talks on ceasefire continue to falter. The first phase of the ceasefire ended on 1 March, and with no agreement on either Phase 2 or continuation of Phase 1 of the ceasefire, there is an air of uncertainty and fear among the people of Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel has been progressively tightening the screws on humanitarian aid and critical supplies into the thin strip. For the people in Gaza hoping to gather pieces of their shattered lives and return to their destroyed homes, these developments, coupled with threats from Israel that it could resume military operations into Gaza anytime, are bringing back the horrible memories of death and destruction caused by over 16 months of devastating war in Gaza.

A Recap of the Ceasefire Conditions

The ceasefire in Gaza came into effect on 19 January after Israel agreed to implement a three phase ceasefire, under pressure from the incoming Trump administration in the US and the threat that ‘all hell will break loose if the truce does not come into effect by the time Donald Trump assumed presidency on 20 January.

The ceasefire deal agreed upon envisaged three stages. The first stage, of 42 days, entailed withdrawal and redeployment of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) outside densely populated areas, the release of hostages and exchange of prisoners, and the return of internally displaced persons to their places of residence in the Gaza Strip. Hamas was to release 33 hostages (including the dead) in the first phase of the deal, including women, children, men over the age of 50, and men under the age of 50 who are wounded and sick. In return, Israel would release over 2,000 Palestinian prisoners from jail. The IDF was also to vacate the Netzarim corridor, which is a kilometer-deep line running across the Gaza Strip, dividing North and South Gaza. In addition, the IDF was to gradually withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor on the border between Gaza and Egypt.

Talks on conditions and implementation of the second phase were to commence on the 16th day of the first phase of the agreement. And, Phase 2 would finally end with the complete withdrawal of IDF forces from the Gaza Strip and a permanent ceasefire. It will also include the release of all the living and dead hostages still held by Hamas.

The third phase was focused on reconstructing and rehabilitating the Gaza Strip, in which the Arab countries will be major stakeholders. An international monitoring force to be deployed to prevent future agreement violations was also a part of the plan.

Developments So Far

Phase 1 of the ceasefire ended on 1 March and all the conditions for it were met including the withdrawal of the IDF from the Netzarim Corridor. However, Phase 2 talks which were to start on 16 February, never got off to a serious start with both Hamas and Israel trading allegations of ceasefire violations. While Hamas accused the IDF of not vacating the Netzarim Corridor and continuing to conduct sporadic military operations in Gaza, Israel threatened to walk out of the deal, accusing Hamas of disrespecting the dead hostages by making a public spectacle of their return. It took urgent and serious intervention from the regional interlocutors and the US to see that all the terms of Phase 1 were implemented.

As regards Phase 2, while Hamas is ready and has even offered to release all remaining hostages in one go, it is clear that Israel is not at all keen on progressing talks on ceasefire till its war objectives are fully realised. The US too seems to be dithering in its commitment to ending the war, to let Israel do what it deems proper to fulfill its war objectives.

Committed to ending the war as a part of his election promise, President Trump gave hints of this U-turn as early as his inauguration day when he said in his first interaction with reporters that he is “not confident” that the ceasefire will hold, adding that the ongoing conflict is “not our war, it’s their war.” He followed it up on 25th January, calling Gaza a ‘demolition site’ that should be vacated, calling upon Jordan, Egypt and other Arab nations to increase the number of Palestinian refugees they are accepting from the Gaza Strip, suggesting that the 1.5 million population in Gaza should vacate the area to “just clean out” the war-torn strip. And during PM Netanyahu’s visit to the White House on 4 February, he again shocked the world by saying that the US will “take over” and “own” Gaza after resettling Palestinians elsewhere under a plan that would turn Gaza Strip into “the Riviera of the Middle East”. The proposal of cleaning out Gaza, taking in more Palestinian refugees, was promptly dismissed by the regional countries and has forced them to look at alternate options to end the war in Gaza.

Meanwhile, with talks on Phase 2 of the ceasefire faltering, the US came up with a bridging proposal regarding the ceasefire which stated that Phase 1 of the ceasefire could be extended for another 60 days, to tide over the holy period of Ramzan, which began on 1 March and runs until 29th March and the Jewish holiday ‘Passover’ on 19 April. During this period, Hamas would release half of the hostages on Day 1 and the remaining on the last day if a permanent end to the war is agreed upon. As per estimates, 58 Israeli hostages remain in Hamas custody, including 34 which Israel says are dead. However, during this extended period, the IDF will continue to stay in positions in Gaza; i.e., the Rafah Crossing and the Philadelphi corridor. While Israel welcomed the proposal, the proposal was promptly rejected by Hamas, claiming that instead of an extension of Phase 1, the talks on ending the war in Phase 2, as a part of an agreed deal, should be pursued.

The Clampdown

Reacting to Hamas’s rejection of the extension offer, Israel immediately ordered a total stoppage of entry to the humanitarian aid convoys into Gaza Strip on 2 March, stating that there will be consequences for Hamas if the temporary truce extension is not agreed upon. Hamas termed it as a “cheap blackmail, a war crime and a blatant coup against the (ceasefire) agreement.”

Israel’s decision also drew instant condemnation from all countries in the region. In an attempt to add more pressure on Hamas and Gaza, Israel further announced cutting off electricity supply to Gaza on 9 March, piling more misery on the people. With the only two functioning desalination plants working in Gaza forced to shut down due to lack of electricity supply and diesel, this is also a significant health hazard looming in Gaza. Meanwhile, the US has concurrently sanctioned and released additional military aid including supply of the 2,000 lb bombs to Israel, previously halted by the Biden administration due to concerns over civilian casualties, further exacerbating tensions and undermining Trump’s claim to ending wars.

Egyptian Plan for Gaza

Forced by the threats of ‘taking over’ Gaza by Trump and the clampdown by Israel, the regional countries have been forced to come up with their own solutions. Egypt presented its plan for the reconstruction of Gaza at the Arab Summit on 4th March, putting forth a plan to rebuild Gaza at the cost of $53 billion. Egyptian President Al Sisi pitched it as “a plan that aims for a comprehensive and just settlement of the Palestinian Issue, ends the root causes of the Israeli Palestinian conflict, guarantees the security and stability of the peoples of the region and establishes the Palestinian State.”

The Egyptian plan envisages rebuilding Gaza by 2030 without removing its population. The first phase calls for starting the removal of unexploded ordnance and clearing more than 50 million tons of rubble left by Israel’s bombardment and military offensives. Thousands of temporary housing units would be set up for Gaza’s population while reconstruction takes place.

The plan envisages completely reshaping the strip and building “sustainable, green and walkable” housing and urban areas with renewable energy in the later phase. It renovates agricultural lands and creates industrial zones and large park areas. It also calls for opening an airport, a fishing port and a commercial port. Hamas would cede power to an interim administration of political independents until a reformed Palestinian Authority can assume control.

Israel dismissed the proposal and has ruled out any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, concurrently seeking complete disarmament of Hamas. Meanwhile, true to its unpredictable nature in conducting business, the Trump administration announced on 5th March that it has been holding direct talks with Hamas to end the war and release of American hostages held in Gaza. The talks, held by US presidential envoy for hostage affairs Adam Boehler, are unprecedented as the US has never engaged directly with Hamas. To add to the mystery, Israel claimed no knowledge of the talks and that it had been kept in the dark.

Conclusion

The failure to move onto Phase 2 of the Gaza ceasefire deal and the complete blockade enforced by Israel is undermining the prospects of peace and ending the war in Gaza. The stoppage of critical humanitarian aid and the lack of clean drinking water is adding to the misery of its people. Israel is hoping that Hamas would relent under pressure from people in Gaza to extend Phase 1 of the truce. What is not, however, clear is what Israel and the US aim to achieve by extending the ceasefire by 60 days without an explicit ‘day after plan’ in mind.

Also, how Israel wants to achieve its war objectives, especially concerning complete elimination of Hamas from the Gaza Strip, is unclear, even to most in the Israeli establishment. It may be worthwhile to note that Hamas may have suffered huge losses, especially to its leadership, but is not down and out. In fact, as per admissions by the previous Secretary of State of the US, Anthony Blinken, Hamas has recruited over 15,000 combat cadres over the past year, recouping significant losses. Also, the continuing ceasefire or lack of military engagement is only giving Hamas the additional time and space to regroup. With UNRWA banned by Israel from operating in Gaza, Hamas has also emerged as the major agency for distribution of humanitarian aid to the people in Gaza. The return of hundreds of Palestinians back from Israeli jails, primarily due to the exchange deal struck by Hamas, has led to people in Gaza hero worshipping Hamas. As a result, the status of Hamas, instead of being diminished, is improving by the day.

Therefore, there are important questions that need to be answered. However, the clampdown and blockade of Gaza do not seem to point towards any of those or even resolution of this conflict. Unless there is a clear and agreed upon plan, agreed upon by both warring parties and has the endorsement of major regional stakeholders as well as the US, the prospects for lasting peace and solution to this conflict will continue to look dim. Amid this deadlock, the suffering unfortunately has to be borne by the people in Gaza.

Col Rajeev Agarwal is a West Asia expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. His X Handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.