As Nato and Brics falter, the Quad still retains its edge – Firstpost

From the number of plurilateral meetings taking place, it would seem that the world is shifting to top gear to deal with the many changes taking place. Most recently was the Quad meeting of foreign ministers in Washington, which includes the US, Japan, Australia, and India. Prior to that was the summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) that saw the usual photo spread of smiling leaders, and soon to be held is the Brics summit in Brazil, hosting leaders from Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the original members, and a host of others who have since joined. But take a look at the details. Never was the world so torn apart and, apparently, so ineffective.

Nato’s not got much to say

Take the Nato joint statement. Never in its history has there been such a
short joint statement that says little or nothing about ongoing wars and promises so much that is unrealistic. In the first instance, it merely mentions Russia as a ‘long-standing’ threat to its security, says nothing at all on the Israel-Iran war, and devotes the rest of the statement to parsing the commitment to raise their defence expenditure from the earlier 2 per cent of GDP to a rousing 5 per cent. That’s a huge jump considering that some
23 of 32 members crept up to even this target only this year, with Nato as a whole spending some 2.61 per cent of its entire (considerable) GDP.

Ironically, it’s the US that spends the least. As Nato’s European countries commit to this increased spending — retaining a hold on a part of this percentage for infrastructure, innovation, and other measures to ensure a strong industrial base, and another part for ‘hard’ security. In other words, it’s going to be a mess, especially as the growth figures for the European Union were literally stalling, with a modest increase of
1.5 per cent expected in 2026. Though the Nato secretary General Mark Rutte led a cringeworthy praise of Trump for bombing Iran — even at one time calling him ‘Daddy’ — the overall reaction has been hugely negative. Again, as
Chinese media rather gleefully pointed out, leaders of South Korea, Japan, and Australia chose not to attend. But that’s not a reflection of a lack of unity in the Indo-Pacific; for most it’s a question of tariffs, and for Tokyo, it’s a preference, for obvious reasons, for upholding international law (rather than the Chinese interpretation of it).

Quad sails on, more or less

Then there was the Quad joint presser, chaired by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stressed again that it was not ‘a security matter’ but also education and business, with top corporate honchos meeting to discuss the ability to ensure global supply chains and rare earths, among other issues like education, which makes the whole thing a bit of a mystery to many. There’s no doubt at all that Rubio himself, and possibly his president, are committed to the Quad, given that it was the first meeting — as Rubio pointed out — that the new administration held. In the
live presser India’s foreign secretary stressed freedom of choice even while stating unequivocally that India expected ‘victims and perpetrators’ of terrorism not to be equated and expected partners to understand that India will exercise its right to defend itself.

In the event, the joint statement mentioned Pahalgam, though it did not mention Pakistan. It, however, did carry very strong language on China, pretty much a repetition of earlier such statements in terms of threats in the South China Sea and intimidatory tactics. Apparently it’s acceptable to ‘name and shame’ China, but not Pakistan. The main difference seems to be that there is an adherence to an actual work plan in four key areas: maritime and transnational security, economic prosperity and security, critical and emerging technology, and humanitarian assistance and emergency response.

Remember that the last essentially included interoperability to be able to operate together in any ‘emergency’; therefore, the importance of the first Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network (where India’s long peninsula jutting into the Pacific is critical) and a new Quad Critical Minerals Initiative. Missing is the usual long litany of a thousand tasks, which raises hopes that Quad has finally found its feet. Don’t forget that while Operation Sindoor was ongoing, a Quad tabletop exercise was ongoing in Hawaii, and just after that, a US-India
Working Group meeting on aircraft carrier cooperation was held in Delhi on May 20, which also ties in with Quad ambitions. Then just a day ago (July 2) was the first-ever Coast Guard observer mission at sea. It seems things are going places. Ground-level movement is more than apparent.

Quad is in troubled waters

But not so fast. Australia’s Prime Minister Albanese is facing
strong criticism for prioritising a visit to China over one to Washington, even as the expected meeting at the G-7 was cancelled as Trump left abruptly. Tariffs and the virtual demise of AUKUS (the Australia-UK-US submarine deal) are all minus points, even as trade with China climbs. Japan is in a tweak against the US threat of tariffs and the war in West Asia. Japan, like the others, is
suffering from a slowdown in the global economy. But it has increased its defence expenditure by
9.7 per cent given what it officially calls “the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II”.

Japan is in the game but is not that sure of US commitment anymore. Meanwhile, Japan, South Korea, and China have
decided to up regional trade in the face of Trump’s tariff wars. That’s rather a ‘red letter’ event in itself. For India too, China remains its second-largest trading partner, and despite efforts by both sides to
reach out to the other, the negativity continues. This was most recently seen at the Shanghai Defence Minister meeting, when Minister Rajnath Singh refused to sign a joint statement that did not mention the Pahalgam attack but sought to tickbox the Jafar Express attack. While official media remained noncommittal,
Chinese language went on the warpath, accusing India of deliberately sabotaging the organisation.

As Nato falters, so it seems does Brics comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, as it is now apparent that President Xi is not attending the ongoing summit. Of all these, therefore, it seems that the Quad is the only organisation gathering steam given the very real threats facing each. Its earlier efforts to attract a ‘Quad Plus’ team — which at various times included South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, and Brazil — led it to water down its main focus on security so as not to scare away countries that did not want China’s wrong side.

The last few summits therefore took on such issues as health, education, and a myriad of other subjects. That has now changed. The present statement is far more focused and indicates a definite thrust of activity that is clearly focused on the China threat. Caution is still evident in the fact that no one is willing to host a Quad permanent secretariat. India has circumvented this anomaly by signing similar 2+2 (foreign and defence) agreements with all these countries. It later included Russia and the UK in an attempt to placate each.

Meanwhile, as the prime minister attends Brics, the fact that the Quad defence ministers just met will have its effect on the overall positioning of India as a power to contend with. On the ground, the work goes on. That’s the part that matters. Trump may rage and threaten, but the administration as a system wants the Quad and wants it up and running, and fast.

The author is Director (R&A) at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.