Can Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP pull off a hat-trick? – Firstpost
The stage is set for Delhi Assembly elections. The Union Territory will go to polls on February 5, with the results on February 8. Delhi will witness a three-cornered fight that is likely to impact national politics.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is vying to return to power again, while its rivals the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are hoping to unseat it. It is a high-stakes battle for all three parties.
Let’s decode.
AAP strives for third term
Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is leaving no stone unturned to retain power in the National Capital. Delhi is where AAP was born from the India Against Corruption (IAC) movement in 2012.
A year later, the AAP ousted Congress from power in the UT, winning 28 of the 70 Assembly seats, with a vote share of 29.49 per cent. Kejriwal formed the government with outside backing from the Congress. However, his minority government lasted only 49 days.
Kejriwal then went on to lead his party to spectacular victories in the Delhi Assembly elections in 2015 and 2020, winning 67 and 62 seats, respectively.
In the 2015 Assembly elections, the BJP managed to clinch only three seats and a 32.19 per cent vote share and the Congress drew a blank, with a vote share under 10 per cent. The Kejriwal-led party bagged an overwhelming vote share of 54.34 per cent.
The AAP’s seat tally declined in 2020 but the party maintained a vote share of 53.57 per cent. It benefited at the cost of Congress, which lost its voter base of poor and lower middle-class electors.
Kejriwal is banking on his governance record, welfare schemes and subsidies to win the February 2025 elections.
The AAP, which is facing its toughest battle yet, kickstarted its election campaign months back. It has already declared all candidates for the 70 Assembly seats in Delhi. Many sitting MLAs have been dropped, while the seats of some such as former deputy Manish Sisodia have been changed.
The ruling party is contesting the polls on the face of its national convenor Kejriwal, giving the election slogan of ‘Phir laayenge Kejriwal’.
Until a few months ago, the AAP’s senior leadership, including
Kejriwal and Sisodia, was in jail on charges of corruption. While AAP’s Kalkaji MLA Atishi is the Delhi chief minister, Kejriwal has iterated he is the party’s candidate for the top job in the upcoming elections.
To woo voters, the AAP has promised to pay women Rs 2,100 monthly if elected back to power. It has also vowed to provide free treatment for senior citizens aged 60 and above at all government and private hospitals in Delhi under the Sanjeevani Yojana.
The AAP is also expecting to reap political dividends on subsidies on water and power, and reforms in healthcare.
However, the tough fight from the BJP and the Congress’ aggressive campaign could hurt its chances.
If the Congress revives its scattered voter base, it could play a spoilsport for the AAP and benefit the saffron party.
For AAP, a victory for a third consecutive term would add wings to its national ambitions, giving it an edge over the Congress in the INDIA bloc.
What’s at stake for BJP, Congress?
The BJP is the AAP’s main opponent in the Delhi Assembly polls. It has not declared a CM face yet and is fighting the elections on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face.
The saffron party has remained out of power in Delhi for more than two decades. While the BJP has won all seven seats in Delhi in the last three Lok Sabha elections, it has failed to win the Assembly elections in the UT since 1998.
PM Modi has set the campaign tone for the BJP in his speeches while inaugurating major infrastructure projects for Delhi. Hitting out at AAP, he raised the party’s poll slogan: “AAP-da nahi sahenge, badal ke rahenge (We will not tolerate this disaster, we will bring a change).”
For the BJP, Delhi elections are a battle of prestige. After a reduced mandate in last year’s Lok Sabha elections, the saffron party bounced back in the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly elections, winning both.
However, Delhi has remained elusive for the BJP. The AAP is trying to corner the saffron party over the lack of a CM face in the city. As per Indian Express, the BJP is relying on its voter base – upper middle class, the trading and Punjabi communities — and support from a section of Purvanchali voters to defeat the AAP in Delhi. It is now making efforts to also lure the lower middle class, Dalits and the poor to deliver the final blow.
A triumph in Delhi would further boost the morale of the BJP’s cadre and take the winds out of the sails of the opposition INDIA bloc.
The Congress, which was the dominant force in Delhi under Sheila Dikshit from 1998 and 2013, is now fighting for relevance in the National Capital, as per ThePrint.
The Delhi Congress unit is beset by organisational weakness and leadership challenges. The Grand Old Party, which is an ally of the AAP in the INDIA bloc, is contesting against Kejriwal’s party in Delhi. To counter Kejriwal’s financial aid for women, the Congress has announced Pyari Didi Yojana under which it will provide a monthly allowance of Rs 2,500 to women if voted to power.
#WATCH | #DelhiElections2025 | Karnataka Deputy CM DK Shivakumar says, “Today, I am here to launch the ‘Pyari Didi’ scheme. I am confident that Congress will form the govt in Delhi and we will provide Rs 2,500 to women, and it will be decided in the very first meeting of cabinet… pic.twitter.com/ZrfchVB2g3
— ANI (@ANI) January 6, 2025
The Congress has so far announced 48 candidates for the upcoming elections. As per Indian Express sources, the national leadership is still hoping to forge an alliance with the AAP in the Assembly polls but its Delhi unit is reluctant.
The
Congress does not have a credible face in Delhi. While senior leaders of other parties have hit the campaign trail, Congress’ Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra are yet to address public gatherings in the National Capital.
For the Congress, a humiliating defeat in Delhi would further rub salt into its wound of losing Haryana and Maharashtra, the states it had expected to win. Delhi loss will also damage its standing in the INDIA grouping.
With inputs from agencies
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