How India can counter Turkey’s pan-Islamic axis with Pakistan and Azerbaijan – Firstpost

The conflict between India and Pakistan after the massacre of civilians in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, has brought to the forefront various foreign policy dynamics. In this context, the role of Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been quite controversial. Turkey’s condemnation of India’s counterterrorist strike in Pakistan and its military support to Pakistan through drone supply have underscored its role in the India-Pakistan conflict. This support from Turkey has forced India to reconsider its foreign policy decisions, particularly in its relations with other countries with close ties with Pakistan.

Today, India is suddenly in a dilemma: how to deal with Pakistan with its two ‘brothers’, Turkey and Azerbaijan, which are part of its ’three brothers alliance’? This three-brother alliance, a term used to describe the close military cooperation between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan, was formed during and after the Armenia-Azerbaijan War. These ‘brothers’ also engaged in military exercises in 2021. The readout after joint exercises said that the joint military exercises would ‘further strengthen the existing ties’ between their armies. This alliance, with its potential to influence the geopolitical landscape in the region, poses significant implications for India’s foreign policy decisions.

Turkey and Azerbaijan have been close defence allies over the past decade and a half, and it started after Ilham Aliyev became the president in 2003 after his father, Heydar Aliyev, passed away. Azerbaijan had been in a protracted, drawn-out conflict with Armenia since its formation in 1991 over an Armenian-dominated region within the international boundaries of Azerbaijan. They fought bitter wars in the 90s, but the war in 2020 was particularly significant vis-à-vis Turkey. Turkey was the leading supplier of advanced and sophisticated drones to Azerbaijan in the 44-day war with Armenia. The battle was bitter, and the sophisticated Bayraktar drones supplied to Azerbaijan by Turkey completely decimated the infantry of the Armenian army, giving it a decisive victory, reclaiming the areas of Azerbaijani territory adjoining Armenian territory, and ultimately taking over complete physical control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, pushing out the native Armenians numbering 100,000 to Armenia as displaced refugees.

The closeness of Turkey and Azerbaijan is also a result of their shared history. Azerbaijanis are also Muslims, but unlike the Turks, they are predominantly Shia Muslims, and people in Turkey are essentially Shia.

Historically, Pakistan and Azerbaijan have enjoyed close relations with each other. Pakistan was the second state after Turkey to recognise its independence in July 1992. To top it off, both Azerbaijan and Pakistan have supported each other over the Nagorno-Karabakh and Kashmir issues. In 2014, the two nations signed a bilateral military cooperation agreement, and Pakistan trained almost a hundred military units in Azerbaijan. In 2021, Baku held combined military exercises with Turkey and Pakistan. In 2017, Pakistan signed a trilateral agreement on regional cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and the three countries agreed to advance stability, security, and prosperity by developing additional trilateral partnerships. They stressed that “their territories shall not be used for activities against each other”. Ankara and Islamabad signed the “trilateral Islamabad Declaration” in 2021 with Baku to show solidarity with Azerbaijan after the September 2020 44-Day War in Karabakh against Armenia. After the end of the 44-Day War, both Azerbaijan and Armenia felt the need to initiate extensive military modernisation programmes.

Since becoming the prime minister in 2003 and a directly elected president in 2014, Erdogan has gradually consolidated his position in Turkey, minimising the role of democratic opposition. In the process, he has fashioned Turkey to become a regional and global power championing Islamic causes and supporting groups from Hamas to Hezbollah to Harkat Ul Mujahideen in Pakistan. As the leader of a NATO country, he has bought weapons from Russia, put objections to the membership of Sweden in NATO and has helped broker peace between Russia and Ukraine in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and minimised the role of the Turkish army (which was seen as the defender of secularism ever since it was established under Mustapha Kemal Pasha, Atatürk, in 1923).

Erdogan’s Economic Policies and Their Impact

The economic strategy has focused on transforming Turkey into an export-driven economy. In the process, he has emulated China’s model of low-cost labour and high-tech industrialisation. He has followed an unconventional monetary policy of having negative interest rates to boost exports, promoting inflation of approximately 59 per cent in 2023. These economic policies, while boosting Turkey’s economic standing, also have implications for its geopolitical role. The increased GDP per capita and expanded manufacturing, with exports projected to reach $302 billion in 2026, could potentially strengthen Turkey’s influence in the global arena. However, steep inflation has eroded household purchasing power, creating a dual economy where exports thrive while domestic consumers struggle.

Democratic Backsliding

Erdogan has systematically destroyed all the democratic institutions of Turkey. He has created a committed judiciary answerable to himself. He has imprisoned his opponents on false charges, the most recent example being Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, his likely opponent in the next presidential elections, on serious charges of terrorism and violence.

The most crucial democratic organ, the media, is also largely controlled by Erdogan. He has also consolidated his power by making a constitutional amendment in 2017, where he can bypass the legislature and rule through decrees, a power once wielded by the Emperors of the Ottoman Empire, which ruled large parts of West Asia and Southern and Central Europe. He has also been accused of giving rise to neo-Ottomanism, as if he is trying to bring back the Ottoman era for himself and the Turkish people.

Regional Ambitions

The regional ambitions of Turkey also make it an essential player in West Asia. It is facing a demand for Kurdish separatism led by the PKK to neutralise the demand for the Kurdish nation within its territory and adjoining areas. It has been trying to increase its footprint in its region. It has helped Syria get rid of the Bashar al-Assad government by a former al-Qaeda leader, Mohammed al-Sharaa. Turkey helped Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) leader Mohammed al-Sharaa with drones and technical support to quickly overrun Assad’s forces. By backing factions in Libya, Syria, and Azerbaijan, Erdogan seeks to position Turkey as a regional power. His support for Muslim Brotherhood-linked groups and energy deals with Qatar underscores this strategy.

Turkey’s European Union Membership Hurdles

Turkey has been looking to join the EU (earlier EEU) since 1961. It has been a candidate country of the EU since 1999; its membership came into serious discussion in 2005. Still, its membership application was suspended by the European Union in 2016 because of a coup, extra-constitutional steps and violation of human rights after the coup. Turkey is now not interested in membership in the European Union, knowing that it will not be considered for membership given its democratic credentials.

Implications for India

India knows the implications of Turkey’s alignment with Pakistan and its ties with Azerbaijan and China. This pro-Pakistan stance has led to Indian boycotts of Turkish and Azerbaijani goods and tourism. While the immediate economic impact is limited, there is a potential for Erdogan to amplify anti-India rhetoric at the behest of Pakistan in multilateral forums.

However, India has the opportunity to strengthen its foreign relations by amplifying the concerns of its neighbours who have strained relations with Turkey. Furthermore, India should acknowledge the Armenian genocide of 1915, a stance supported by over 30 nations, and stand in solidarity with Greek Cypriots in Cyprus and Greece, who have their issues with Turkey.

Erdogan’s policies blend ideological posturing with pragmatic realpolitik, prioritising regime stability and regional dominance over democratic accountability. While his economic reforms have spurred growth, they come at a significant cost, and his foreign policy risks isolating Turkey from Western allies and countries like India.

Amitabh Singh teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.