How peace in Syria is yet a distant dream – Firstpost

In the aftermath of Hayat Tehrir al-Sham (HTS) assuming control in Damascus and Bashar al-Assad having fled to Russia, the new leadership is occupied in normalising the situation. Schools, colleges, and government offices have reopened. A flurry of diplomatic activity is taking place, and France and Qatar, among others, have opened their embassies. The UN, UK, and EU have sent their representatives to interact with the new government in Syria.

The new leader of Syria, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, alias Jolani, has exhorted Western countries to lift the economic sanctions imposed during the Assad regime. Consequent to his declaring that they will not wage war against Israel, the Israeli defence minister has stated that Israel will not interfere in Syria. Israel has already destroyed more than 80 percent of the war-waging effort of Syria.

Sharaa is projecting HTS as a more moderate, inclusive, and nationalistic party and hopes that the group will be taken off the list of terrorist groups by the UN, US, and the Western world. Minorities such as Christians, Alawis, Shia, and Druz are being reassured that the new establishment is not going to take revenge and shall take them along in rebuilding the nation.

The regional and extra-regional powers are repositioning themselves with the new government, and the effect of the change of guard is likely to have varying consequences for these powers.

Turkey

Turkey was a major supporter of HTS in overthrowing and overpowering the Assad regime. Turkey is sensitive to the Kurdish movement in the north and northeast of Syria spreading to their southern Kurdish majority areas. Turkish troops are occupying some northern areas of Syria and would expect close relations with the new government as well as to keep the northern areas of Syria under their influence. Turkey would also be looking forward to having a major share in rebuilding Syria, having enhanced trade and commerce activity, and helping the Syrians to revive their economy.

The smooth return and rehabilitation of over three and a half million Syrians who were refugees in Turkey has also to be coordinated with the new establishment. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is hopeful that the new government will be formed by giving representation to all groups, including the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). The important issue of operations against Kurds and areas of influence in the north and northeast of Syria has also to be ironed out between Turkey, the US, and the new government in Syria. Overall, Turkey is going to be a major gainer in new Syria’s affairs and is likely to fill the void created by dwindling Russian and Iranian presence.

Israel

In the last few months, Israel systematically weakened and degraded Hezbollah in Lebanon and the anti-aircraft and air defence capability of Iran. In doing so, it ensured the exodus of Hezbollah fighters and Republican Guards in large numbers from Syria in order to stabilise their domestic situation.

Israel also backed the European Union in supplying wherewithal to Ukraine and forcing Russians to thin out of Syria to be deployed in the war in Ukraine. As a result, they made the job of HTS easier to oust the Assad regime. Israel is the biggest gainer in the new Syrian canvas. They have occupied the remaining one-third of the Golan Heights, almost 250 sq km, and extended their frontiers eastwards, getting closer to Damascus. In a series of air attacks, the Israelis have destroyed most of the warplanes, airports, battleships, ports, tanks, guns, and anti aircraft guns and destroyed the majority of the war-waging material in Syria.

Israel has also shattered the Shia Crescent and the ‘axis of resistance’ (or ’evil’), thereby eliminating the threat from Hezbollah, Hamas, and other proxies of Iran to a large extent. Although Israel is amongst the countries that have regarded HTS as a terrorist group, over the years, they have had openings of back channels with most of the opposition groups, especially those who were active in Golan in the initial years of the Syrian Civil War from 2013 to 2016. The destruction of 80 per cent of war-waging capability of Syria and the occupation of the buffer zone further into Syria has not gone well with the new government and doesn’t augur well for long-lasting peace between the two neighbours. Israel needs to take mid-course corrections on their approach towards Syria post-Assad regime.

Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries had extended moral and material support to the myriad of opposition groups and have helped them to finally bring down the minority government of Assad. The GCC countries would now look forward to assisting the new government in rebuilding Syria and reviving its economy. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have had huge leverage with the new establishment in Syria and will have a great influence on them. GCC countries are relieved to see the Shia Crescent having been weakened and Iranian proxies almost eliminated.

As part of the Israel-India-UAE-US (I2U2), the UAE had already normalised relations with Israel, and along with Saudi Arabia, they can be peace brokers in the Middle East affairs. With reduced influence of Iran in Syrian affairs, the GCC countries will also have to fill the void created in oil supplies to Syria. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, in recent years of stalemate in Syria, had normalised relations with the Assad regime and worked on getting Syria back into the Arab League. Qatar and Kuwait continued to support the rebel groups and as such have better relations with the new establishment. The GCC countries are appreciative of the interim government being more inclusive and retaining and reviving state institutions.

Iran

Iran is the biggest loser after the fall of the Assad regime. Iraq and Syria acted as a conduit for Iranian weapons and other war-waging efforts for supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon. The fall of the Shia Crescent and the axis of resistance has shrunk the strategic influence enjoyed by Iran in the region. However, the new government in Syria still has to maintain working relations with Iran if they want to ensure 80 per cent of their crude oil imports from that country. Iran is down in the Middle East balance of power but not out and will make all efforts with the help of Russia for a resurgence. The proxies of Iran operating against Israel through Syria will not be effective for a long time to come.

Russia

While the Western world was expecting the Assad government to fall in 2012 when I joined as head of the Mission and Force Commander of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), the peacekeeping mission at Golan Heights between Syria and Israel, they were completely off the mark. The Russian ambassadors in Syria and Israel had the true picture of the ground situation and always told me that the Assad government was very stable and strong and was not going down in a hurry. It was with Russian and Iranian support that Assad lasted through 13 years of civil war. The Russians are now close to losing their foothold in the Mediterranean, with their naval base in Tartus and the air base at Hmeimim in Latakia having been thinned out. The Russians were also controlling their operations in Africa from these bases.

Russians are negotiating with the new interim government to continue to have footholds in these bases. While the naval base at Tartus has been operative since 1971, the air base in Latakia was established in 2015. Traditionally, Syrian students have been going to Russia for higher studies and getting engineering and medical degrees. Some of the students, in addition to the degree, also got wives from Russia, and there are more than 40,000 Russian-origin women married to Syrians, and Russia would endeavour to ensure their security.

The US

The US was not involved directly in the overthrow of the Assad regime and was also caught off guard and surprised at the momentum of the attack by the HTS and allied groups. Later, the Biden administration enhanced the air attacks on the remnants of ISIS in the eastern part of Syria bordering Iraq and Jordan in a bid to ensure that they do not interfere in the power struggle and let HTS call the shots. The US has now removed the terrorist tag on Ahmed al Saraa but has still to take a call on removing the economic sanctions. There are issues for the US in the north and northeast where their NATO ally Turkey is hellbent on fighting SDF, a Kurdish group, with their Syrian proxy, the Syrian National Army (SNA).

The SDF is a partner with a 900-strong US military presence in dealing with ISIS in the eastern part of the nation. Similarly, the US has supported its ally Israel when it attacked the military assets of Syria and created a buffer zone in the Golan Heights by moving into Syrian territory by labelling them as defensive measures. The US cannot hold onto these positions if they have to do business with the new establishment in Damascus. As per President-elect Trump’s statement, the US may leave Syria alone to solve its mess and not have an active role in Syrian matters. With his America First attitude, President Trump may continue to let the US lead from the rear and further reduce its presence in Syria.

The Way Ahead

Turkey and GCC countries must undertake sincere reconstruction of Syria and let the HTS-led government stabilise the political situation. They should resist the temptation of getting embroiled in the domestic affairs of Syria but must remain as facilitators and also not allow spoilers to divide the country as per areas of influence. Israel needs to show restraint and engage the new establishment in a positive manner. The roadmap for a political transition in Syria espoused by UN Resolution 2254 of December 18, 2015, should be followed for Syrians to have an indigenous solution for the country without external interference.

As per the well-drafted UN resolution, which was time and again stymied by the Assad regime, who did not want to transfer power, the interim inclusive government must continue for a year to stabilise the country and then usher in fair and free elections under international observers. The 1974 Agreement between Israel and Syria must be respected with the new government in Syria undertaking ownership, and UNDOF should continue to occupy the buffer zone and keep the two opposing powers away from a conventional war.

At the time of writing, fresh, fierce fighting has erupted between the Turkey-backed SNA, which supported HTS in the attack on Assad Forces, and the National Democratic Forces (NDF) in the north and northeast. Militias loyal to the Assad government, comprising mainly of Allawis and Christian communities, are fighting the police and armed forces of the new government in Tartous. As many as 14 police officers have even been killed by these militias. US-backed militias are fighting in the east to finally push out remnants of ISIS. Iraqi and Jordanian armed forces are deployed along their border with Syria to ensure no armed groups enter their countries. Peace is likely to take a long time to return to Syria!

The author was the head of the mission and force commander at the Golan Heights from 2012 to 2015. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.