How Poland’s election of a pro-Trump president sends a ‘thunderclap across Europe’ – Firstpost

On June 2, Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister of Poland, called for a parliamentary vote of confidence in his coalition government, to be held on June 11. While announcing the vote, Tusk stated:

“I want everyone to see, including our opponents, at home and abroad, that we are ready for this situation, that we understand the gravity of the moment, but that we do not intend to take a single step back.”

Tusk, who came to power in late 2023, has repeatedly been frustrated in his efforts to deliver on electoral promises—primarily due to President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the Law and Justice (PiS) party. Duda has frequently vetoed laws passed by Tusk’s majority government or sent them to courts packed with loyalists of the previous administration.

The most recent political shift now presents an even greater existential threat to the Tusk government’s ability to fulfill promises made both to Polish voters and the European Union.

The Dual Governance System

Under Poland’s 1997 Constitution, the country operates under a mixed presidential-parliamentary system. The President—directly elected to no more than two five-year terms—serves as the Commander-in-Chief, and has limited powers to declare martial law or a state of emergency. The President can veto laws passed by the Sejm (lower house), though the Sejm can override the veto with a three-fifths majority.

However, day-to-day governance is led by the Prime Minister.

The President appoints the Prime Minister, and on the PM’s recommendation, appoints the Cabinet—subject to parliamentary approval. The President cannot dismiss the government. Members of the Sejm and Senate are elected for four-year terms. Laws must be approved by both houses, but the Sejm can override Senate objections with a simple majority.

Thus, executive power is primarily vested in the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers, who are accountable to the Sejm. The PM’s role is comparable to that of a chancellor in Germany.

So What Changed?

The immediate shift stems from the runoff round of Poland’s presidential election, held on Sunday.

Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

In the second-round presidential runoff, Karol Nawrocki, a political outsider and ally of the populist Law and Justice party, narrowly defeated Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal Mayor of Warsaw and Tusk’s preferred candidate. Trzaskowski had led in the inconclusive first round and was favored by early exit polls on Sunday night.

The race was close—so close that for Trzaskowski, the result felt like defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

The Narrowest of Margins

According to Poland’s electoral commission, Nawrocki secured 50.9 per cent of the vote to Trzaskowski’s 49.1 per cent—a margin of just 300,000 votes. The voter turnout was high at 71.63 per cent, underscoring deep political polarisation.

The Run to the Runoff

The second round was necessary because none of the 13 candidates in the May 18 first round reached the 50 per cent threshold. Trzaskowski led with 31.4 per cent, followed closely by Nawrocki at 29.5 per cent.

Decoding Nawrocki

Karol Nawrocki, 42, a historian and former head of Poland’s national remembrance institute, is also an amateur boxer. A political outsider, he ran as an independent with strong backing from Law and Justice. He portrayed himself as an underdog, sharing videos of himself boxing and at shooting ranges.

His campaign focused on nationalist, anti-immigration themes. He promised to protect Polish sovereignty and frequently criticized EU interference in domestic affairs.

Brussels vs Washington
Poland’s political framework is now split. The centrist government, headed by Tusk, is aligned with Brussels (the EU), while the newly elected right-wing president is supported by Washington, particularly figures close to Donald Trump.

Political analyst Jaroslaw Kuisz has called this a clash between “two Wests”—two ideologically distinct power centers.

Thunderclap Over Europe

Just two weeks earlier, Romania’s centrist Nicusor Dan defeated far-right nationalist George Simion, providing temporary relief to pro-EU observers. But Nawrocki’s win in Poland reversed that trend—representing, as many observers noted, a “thunderclap over Europe”.

The Rise of the Far Right
Poland’s result is part of a broader European pattern. Trzaskowski performed well in major cities, while Nawrocki won rural areas and much of the younger male vote.

With similar gains by Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Robert Fico in Slovakia, and possibly Andrej Babiš returning in the Czech Republic, Nawrocki’s win strengthens nationalist forces across Europe.

Though European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remained diplomatic, far-right leaders were jubilant. Orbán called it a “fantastic victory,” while George Simion declared “Poland won.”

Implications for the EU

Right and far-right parties are now part of the ruling coalitions in eight European countries and are rising as major opposition forces in Germany and France.

This trend has major consequences for the EU:

• These parties champion nationalist, anti-immigration, and Eurosceptic platforms.

• They weaken the EU’s supranational institutions and hinder policy consensus.

• They threaten democratic norms, judicial independence, and human rights across member states.

Poland: The Specific Fallout

Though Tusk remains head of government, Nawrocki’s presidency will limit his ability to push pro-European reforms. The president can veto laws and influence foreign policy. Nawrocki, like his predecessor Andrzej Duda, is expected to block key initiatives—only more aggressively.

Not Merely Ceremonial

While the Prime Minister governs daily affairs, the presidency is not merely ceremonial. With veto power and public clout, Nawrocki can act as a powerful counterweight to Tusk’s agenda.

Nawrocki will succeed Duda, whose term ends on August 6. Like Duda, Nawrocki is a Law and Justice ally—but reportedly more combative and politically aggressive.

Tusk’s Troubles Multiply

Tusk’s coalition—composed of liberals, leftists, and conservatives—has a parliamentary majority, but lacks the three-fifths majority needed to override presidential vetoes. Nawrocki is expected to use this power frequently, making Tusk’s reform efforts all but impossible.

The Lame Duck Label

Public patience with Tusk appears to be fading. A Sunday exit poll by OGB showed 47 per cent of voters disapprove of the government, with only 30 per cent approving.

The Warsaw stock market dipped 2 per cent after the results.

There are two key reasons:

• Presidential Veto Threat: Nawrocki’s election means most reform bills are likely dead on arrival.

• Coalition Fragility: Tusk’s broad coalition could be destabilized. PiS may try to woo right-leaning MPs to collapse the government. Even if that fails, general elections are due in 2027.

Conclusion: A Government in Check

While Tusk remains in office, the reformist ambition that brought him to power in 2023 is now severely compromised. His government may survive—but only as a lame duck, managing daily affairs without the political space to enact substantial change.

The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.