How Trump 2.0 will influence West Asian diplomacy – Firstpost
The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States has ignited a renewed wave of conversations regarding the potential shifts in US foreign policy concerning West Asia. The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East that President Trump will inherit from the Biden administration has experienced considerable transformations.
Over the past year, Iran and Israel have launched direct assaults on each other’s sovereign lands; Israel has effectively subdued Hamas and Hezbollah, and one of the Islamic Republic’s key Arab allies, the Assad regime in Syria, collapsed within weeks after holding power for fifty years.
The recent policy decisions implemented by President Trump may not uniformly pertain to the geopolitical dynamics of West Asia; however, they may exhibit interrelations, as drug cartels occasionally establish affiliations with terrorist organisations, including Hezbollah. One of the executive directives relates to the safeguarding of the United States from foreign terrorist entities, which may be perceived as consolidating America’s attention on terrorist organisations such as Hamas and their affiliates within the United States.
This is significant because organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah are progressively expanding their reach in their endeavours to sway policy in Western nations. In a subsequent assessment that may produce indirect implications for policies related to the Middle East, Trump conveyed through social media that he had terminated “Brian Hook from the Wilson Centre for Scholars”.
This action was indicative of a larger strategy to seek out and eliminate “over a thousand” presidential appointees who diverge from “our vision”, as articulated by Trump on social media. Hook was notably recognised during the initial Trump administration for his role as the envoy addressing Iranian affairs. In November 2024, it was reported that he was part of the transition team; however, this association appeared to come to a quick close, according to Politico in early January.
A further pivotal decision that unfolded during the initial 24 hours of the Trump administration was the endorsement of Marco Rubio as the new Secretary of State. Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, expressed his approval of this development. This is of particular importance in light of Rubio’s developed rapport with Israel, as well as his considerable policy viewpoints regarding the extensive Middle East, particularly in relation to the pressing requirement for the rapid implementation of fundamental US policies.
The confirmation of Rubio was met with similar approval from Masrour Barzani, Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. He has recently been involved in diplomatic discussions in the UAE and Jordan to improve the Kurdistan region’s relations in West Asia. The Kurdistan region is poised to solicit considerable American support in the forthcoming years, which embodies an essential facet of US policy.
Saudi Arabia assumed a significant position in the Middle Eastern policy framework formulated during Trump’s first term in office. Notably, his inaugural international engagement as president occurred in Riyadh. The connection fostered between his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is a case of direct engagement that likely provoked substantial unease within the State Department. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia fervently endorsed the “maximum pressure” strategy directed against Iran, investing billions of dollars in American armaments.
Although Riyadh did not officially take part in Trump and Kushner’s principal Middle Eastern initiative, the Abraham Accords, it neither challenged nor obstructed its close allies, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, while simultaneously developing a discreet relationship with Israel that implied the potential for future diplomatic acknowledgement.
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and Saudi Arabia has evolved since Trump’s first term. Upon Trump’s inauguration, the leadership dynamics in Riyadh were uncertain. MBS leveraged Trump’s backing to eliminate his rival, Mohammed bin Naif, from succession in June 2017, following Trump’s visit. The inexperienced leader, granted day-to-day authority by his ill father, aligned with Trump’s policy against Iran.
Currently, MBS has firmly established his dominance in the kingdom’s governance. He has recently underscored the importance of regional stability as a cornerstone of Vision 2030, his transformative economic strategy. In 2023, he re-established diplomatic ties with Tehran, facilitated by Chinese intervention.
MBS’ engagement with Iran stems from Trump’s failure to support Saudi Arabia following Iran’s 2019 missile and drone attack on oil facilities. The attack was a response to the economic pressure from US sanctions. Trump minimised the attack’s significance and refrained from military retaliation against Iran. This inaction surprised Saudi Arabia. MBS’ rapprochement with Iran and his negotiation stance with the Biden administration regarding Israel’s recognition are linked to Trump’s lack of reaction to the Iranian assault in 2019.
There exists a prevailing anticipation that the newly inaugurated Trump administration will significantly alter the trajectory of the Middle East region; consequently, several strategic priorities have been considered by the administration. One notable priority involves the reestablishment of a strategy characterised by “maximum pressure” aimed at the Iranian regime, which encompasses the termination of its hard currency revenue streams, the further reduction of Tehran’s proxies, and the political and diplomatic seclusion of the regime.
The second priority encompasses the revitalisation of the bilateral relationship between the United States and Israel, particularly through the reaffirmation of Washington’s support and provision of assistance for Israel’s defence capabilities. There is a robust conviction within Washington that the Trump administration will retract its support for a “two-state solution” and, conversely, endorse Israel’s future plans concerning Gaza and the West Bank.
Third, the United States will actively seek to broaden the scope of the Abraham Accords, which facilitated the normalisation of diplomatic relations among Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco during President Trump’s initial term. Additionally, the United States plans to intensify its unwavering support for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor alongside other initiatives designed to enhance interconnectivity.
In harmony with the aforementioned priorities, it is foreseen that the new administration will play a pivotal role in tackling the issue termed as the ‘global intifada’, which seeks to vilify and estrange the state of Israel. The United States is predicted to play an important part in promoting Israel across international and multinational platforms while highlighting its commitment to Israel and Israeli interests in bilateral discussions. Furthermore, the Trump administration may endeavour to undermine the financial support and leadership of entities that advocate for antisemitism and anti-Zionism initiatives.
The Trump administration is projected to expeditiously commence a campaign aimed at effectively increasing US energy exports while championing initiatives that provide stable, affordable, and abundant conventional energy for allies, partners, and friends. Concurrently, the administration will strive to reduce the revenue derived from energy exports by both Iran and Russia. Ultimately, one may anticipate that the United States will prioritise efforts to counteract China’s worldwide influence, a course of action that will likely include restraining Beijing’s intrusive interactions in both the Middle East and Africa while affording regional stakeholders alternative prospects for collaboration, development, and investment.
Donald Trump, as the 47th President of the United States, introduces a complex interplay of geopolitical strategies and regional dynamics throughout West Asia. The administration’s approach to strengthening the Abraham Accords and its stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will play a crucial role in shaping the region’s future. How the Trump administration will navigate the delicate balance between supporting its traditional allies and addressing the new challenges posed by regional foes will be seen in the years ahead. The upcoming years are poised to witness major developments that will fundamentally reshape the contours of US foreign policy in West Asia.
The author is a Foreign Policy Analyst based in India. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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