India Inc revenue likely up 5-6% in Q4, says Crisil

Operating profit in the quarter is estimated to have risen 8% on year
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Corporate revenues in India are expected to have risen 5-6 per cent in the March quarter, with profitability improving 40-60 basis points, led by consumer discretionary, according to Crisil Intelligence.

Operating profit in the quarter is estimated to have risen 8 per cent on year.

It has estimated 5 per cent revenue growth for FY25.

Crisil Intelligence said it had analysed over 400 companies, that account for over half the market capitalisation of the NSE.

It’s just about two weeks into the corporate earnings season and different sectors have shown differing growth trajectories. The big IT sector companies have shown a sequential decline in revenues while struggling to get large deals. The private sector banks that have announced results have reported decent growth, while the FMCG companies have shown muted volume growth, as urban demand still remains stubbornly slow.

Analysts have been warning of subdued corporate earnings growth in the fourth quarter.

According to Crisil , in consumer staples, the FMCG segment is expected to see 4-6 per cent revenue growth led by price hikes amid subdued volume growth. While rural demand has been resilient, urban side has stayed subdued.

“The consumer discretionary products, services and staple services segment is expected to see an 8-9 per cent year-on-year increase in revenue. This would be led by an expected 15 per cent surge in telecom services revenue resulting from significant tariff hikes implemented in the second quarter and the introduction of premium 5G plans by telecom operators,” said Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence.

 Exports have come under focus due to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs on all countries, with whom it has a trading relationship.

Overall exports revenue likely grew 4 per cent, said Crisil in its report. IT services revenue is estimated to have grown 2-3 per cent following a marginal improvement in demand and project pick-ups. The pharmaceutical sector revenue likely grew 8 per cent on robust demand in the regulated markets such as the US and Europe, as well as in the semi-regulated ones in Africa.

Revenue of the agriculture sector, including fertilisers, likely grew 17-19 per cent with consumption improving following a stable summer crop acreage and higher disposable incomes stemming from better yields and remuneration for kharif paddy.

The retail segment likely saw a robust 17 per cent growth, led by demand in the value fashion, and food and grocery segments, as well as an expansion of store networks. The automobile sector’s revenue likely grew 6 per cent as retail momentum for passenger vehicles picked up and realisations rose owing to a change in the product mix and increasing share of exports, he said.

 “The top 10 sectors, which collectively account for over 70 per cent of revenue, showed a mixed trend in EBITDA margins. Five, including export-driven ones such as pharmaceuticals, investment-linked ones such as power and consumer discretionary such as telecom services, likely saw margin expansion,” said  Elizabeth Master, Associate Director, Crisil Intelligence.

Published on April 24, 2025