Is the deal worth it? – Firstpost

After going through a few grim reports on the state of F-35 maintenance in the US, one is not sure India will buy the American fifth-generation fighter aircraft. The doubt increases on knowing the latest development where the Donald Trump administration is offering the aircraft to India to woo it away from the Russian Sukhoi Su-57 (which is an unlikely deal too) in a government-to-government transfer package (like France sent the first batch of improved Dassault Rafale to this country) without provisions for offset, technology transfer, and subsequent bulk production by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) (unlike Rafale).

Why not the F-35?

The reports referred to above (from Reuters, Associated Press, The Economic Times, The Week, and India Today) say the F-35 fighter jet, a cornerstone of US defence, is under scrutiny for escalating costs and performance issues. A 2024 US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report indicates that none of the F-35 variants—F-35A, F-35B, or F-35C—are meeting availability targets, with fleet readiness declining over the past five years. Projected lifetime sustainment costs have risen from $1.1 trillion in 2018 to $1.58 trillion in 2023. The Air Force now estimates annual operating costs per aircraft at $6.8 million, surpassing the initial $4.1 million target.

Technical and manufacturing challenges persist. A $16.5 billion modernisation initiative aimed at upgrading radar, weapon systems, and software has repeatedly been delayed due to software stability issues. Engine enhancements have also been postponed, with the GAO attributing these setbacks to inadequate planning and oversight.

Safety concerns have intensified following multiple F-35 crashes, including incidents in Florida and Utah. Investigations have linked these accidents to engine malfunctions and software glitches, prompting calls for comprehensive reviews of the aircraft’s safety protocols.

Despite these issues, President Donald Trump is pushing F-35 jets to India, aiming to strengthen defence ties and counterbalance China’s regional muscle-flexing using the Pakistani handle while also wooing Russia’s age-old customer of military hardware. However, India’s defence procurement process is meticulous, focusing on cost-effectiveness and technology transfer. The substantial costs and ongoing challenges associated with the F-35 programme may influence India’s decision-making, as it seeks to modernise its military without incurring unsustainable expenses.

While the F-35 represents a big advancement in military technology, its escalating costs and persistent issues raise questions about its suitability for nations like India, which must balance defence modernisation with fiscal responsibility.

Cheaper alternative

Meanwhile, officials from Rostec, the Russian state-owned defence conglomerate, have said that if India accepts its offer, the existing facility of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in Nasik could be swiftly adapted for the production of the Su-57, Russia’s advanced fifth-generation fighter aircraft.

The Nasik facility, which has demonstrated its capabilities by manufacturing the Su-30MKI for the Indian Air Force (IAF), is currently equipped to produce the Su-57. This facility played a crucial role in assembling nearly 220 Su-30MKI aircraft for the IAF, and Rostec representatives have indicated that a substantive portion of the tools and machinery utilised in the Su-30MKI programme are directly compatible with the Su-57, facilitating a smoother transition to Su-57 production.

This compatibility in tooling and manufacturing infrastructure suggests that India could initiate Su-57 production at a considerably lower cost, as many of the necessary processes and equipment for the Su-30MKI are already established. This could serve as a vital cost-saving strategy, enhancing the feasibility of Su-57 production shortly.

Moreover, Rostec has assured India that any proposal for licensed production of the Su-57 would include a comprehensive Transfer of Technology (ToT). This aspect of the agreement is essential, as it would empower India to not only assemble the aircraft domestically but also to bolster its indigenous capabilities by acquiring expertise in the design, maintenance, and production of the Su-57.

The provision of ToT for the Su-57 aligns with Russia’s broader strategy to strengthen defence collaboration with India, presenting additional opportunities for India to advance its defence self-reliance objectives. This initiative could also lead to considerable progress in India’s aviation technology, as it would enable Indian engineers and technicians to gain practical experience with the fifth-generation fighter.

The possibility of licensed manufacturing of the Su-57 in India could bolster the nation’s air defence capabilities. The Su-57, featuring advanced stealth technology, high speed, and exceptional manoeuvrability, would greatly augment India’s strategic aerial strength, enabling the Indian Air Force to more effectively address the evolving threats posed by adversaries.

The problem with Russia

All of this notwithstanding, over the past two decades, India has gradually moved away from excessive reliance on Russian military hardware due to issues like delayed deliveries, cost overruns, and quality concerns. The INS Vikramaditya (formerly Admiral Gorshkov) deal, which saw its price nearly triple from $974 million to over $2.3 billion and a delayed delivery by nearly five years, palpably dented India’s confidence in Russian project management. Similarly, the MiG-35’s failure to meet the IAF’s Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) specifications—coupled with India’s disappointing experience with the MiG-29K used on Vikramaditya—reinforced scepticism about Russian fighters.

Will India buy the Su-57?

Despite Russia’s aggressive pitch, India is unlikely to purchase the Su-57 Felon (NATO-given name) for several reasons.

The Su-57 is still evolving, with limited operational experience. Russia has struggled to develop its second-generation Izdeliye 30 engines, meaning initial Su-57 batches still rely on the older AL-41F1 engines used in the Su-35. This creates uncertainty over performance.

The Russian Air Force has only a handful of Su-57s in service, with production slowed by Western sanctions. India would be wary of supply chain bottlenecks affecting future upgrades and spare parts availability.

While the Su-57 is marketed as a fifth-generation fighter, experts question its stealth capabilities, especially compared to the F-35 or even China’s J-20. Radar cross-section reduction techniques appear inferior to Western designs.

Since the Rafale deal, India has preferred Western platforms that are ready to transfer technology. The F-35 offer from the US could make the Su-57 even less appealing, though India would weigh costs, interoperability, and geopolitical risks before making a final decision.

India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project aims to develop an indigenous fifth-generation fighter. Investing heavily in the Su-57 could divert funds from AMCA, thus delaying domestic progress.

Why would India still consider the Su-57?

The Nasik plant, which manufactures Su-30MKIs, could be repurposed for Su-57 production, making logistics and maintenance more manageable.

Russia’s willingness to transfer tech: Unlike the US, which is unlikely to share critical F-35 tech, Russia might offer joint production of the Su-57, similar to past Sukhoi deals.

While Russia is trying to push the Su-57 at Aero India, India is unlikely to bite—at least in its current form. Instead, the IAF may focus on expanding the Rafale fleet, wait for AMCA, or explore newer Western options. If India engages with Russia on the Su-57, it would likely be for technology transfer rather than direct procurement.

In terms of quality, what is the best option?

F-35 vs Su-57 vs J-35

India is evaluating the F-35 as a fifth-generation fighter option while Russia is aggressively pitching the Su-57. Meanwhile, China’s J-35 (also called FC-31) is an emerging threat, particularly for a probable two-front war scenario against China and Pakistan.

Stealth capabilities

The F-35 has the smallest radar cross-section (RCS) among the three. It uses internal weapons bays to maintain stealth. It is coated with advanced radar-absorbing materials. It has proven stealth operations against Russian and Chinese radar systems.

The J-35’s stealth design resembles the F-35, but China still struggles with stealth coatings.

Internal weapon bays help maintain stealth, but engine design and heat signature issues reduce effectiveness.

The Su-57 uses a “stealth by shape” design but lacks full stealth coatings. Its external weapons carriage compromises stealth. Its higher infrared signature makes it easier to detect.

The F-35 dominates in stealth while the J-35 has potential but is untested. The Su-57 lags behind.

Radar and sensor fusion

Again, the F-35’s AN/APG-81 AESA radar provides unmatched tracking capability. Its distributed Aperture System (DAS) offers 360-degree battlefield awareness. It can detect stealth aircraft like the J-20 at long ranges.

The J-35 uses AESA radar, but China lags in sensor fusion and electronic warfare. It has limited real-world data on sensor effectiveness.

The Su-57 uses Irbis-E hybrid AESA/PESA radar but lacks sensor fusion. Russian avionics lag behind Western counterparts.

The F-35’s sensor fusion makes it a true “battlefield quarterback” while China is catching up. Russia’s Su-57 remains technologically behind in this area.

Supercruise and manoeuvrability

The Su-57 wins here, as it is super manoeuvrable with 3D thrust vectoring. It can engage in high-angle-of-attack manoeuvres like the “Cobra”. It is the best dogfighter among the three.

The F-35 is not built for close-range dogfighting. It has a powerful F135 engine but only one nozzle (unlike the Su-57’s two). It lacks the super-cruise feature, relying instead on afterburners for supersonic speeds.

The J-35 lacks thrust vectoring. Its engines are underpowered, with the WS-19 still in development. It struggles with sustained supersonic flight.

The Su-57 wins in close combat, but modern air warfare relies more on beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat, where manoeuvrability matters less.

Weapons and payload

The F-35 wins again with options of internal and external weapons (including nuclear capability). It can carry AIM-120 AMRAAM, Meteor, JSM, and B61 tactical nukes. It can integrate future weapons due to modular systems.

The Su-57 has a large payload capacity (up to 14 weapons). It is hypersonic missile-capable (Kh-47M2 Kinzhal). It is, however, not compatible with missiles made in the West or in Israel.

The J-35 uses Chinese PL-15 and PL-21 missiles. It has had limited exposure to real fight scenarios; China is not transparent enough to allow testing by independent foreign defence experts.

The F-35 wins due to advanced weapons integration, followed by the Su-57. The J-35 is still unproven.

Production and reliability

Over 1,000 F-35 aircraft have been delivered worldwide. The plane is used by more than 17 countries, proving its reliability. It does encounter frequent maintenance issues but boasts of an extensive supply chain.

The J-35 is still in its testing phase, with no operational units yet. It will likely enter the PLA-Navy service first for aircraft carriers.

The Su-57 is plagued by production delays. Russia itself has less than 30 Su-57s, while the remnant of the once-mighty Soviet Union cannot scale production due to economic constraints.

The F-35 is combat-proven, while the Su-57 and J-35 remain experimental.

What should India buy or develop?

China’s J-35 is the real concern. If China successfully integrates it into its carrier strike groups, India will have to rethink its naval air power.

Pakistan could buy J-35s when they are ready (keep aside the factor of affordability; driven by hate for India, impoverished Pakistanis would hurtle towards bankruptcy). This would force India to counter with better aircraft like the Rafale or a future stealth jet.

The F-35 is the best aircraft overall but exorbitant. India may not buy it immediately but must consider it in the long run.

Russia’s Su-57 remains unreliable. India is unlikely to buy it even if Russia offers a deep tech transfer deal.

The best Indian strategy would be to expand its fleet of Rafale, which has proven reliability. At the same time, the AMCA development must be fast-tracked to counter Chinese stealth. Meanwhile, India must keep exploring F-35 options for long-term deterrence even as it upgrades Su-30MKIs with Western avionics to maintain parity.

If India ever faces a two-front war, it needs more fifth-generation fighters, better networked warfare systems, and advanced air defence to counter stealth threats from China and Pakistan.

The author is a senior journalist and writer. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.