Method in the madness? – Firstpost

There is every reason for the foreign policy establishment to congratulate itself on a largely successful visit to Washington. True, there is talk of tariffs and such, but President Donald Trump chose to brim over with praise for the Prime Minister, and the joint statement had much in terms of future cooperation. But everything is not in the written word, and sometimes not even in the upfront action. For India and for others, there is a risky road ahead. Never have basic principles, at least held in a nominal good faith, been the basis for international relations under such an onslaught as seen in the first 100 days of the Trump administration’s diplomacy through disruption. That can have a considerable spillover for India and its foreign policy planning.

‘Manifest Destiny’ in Full Play

First is the barrage of claims on territory, unseen since the 1800s. In his inaugural address, President Trump invoked ‘manifest destiny’, a core belief of the 19th century that the US was destined to settle the whole continent, and literally “Making America Great Again” (MAGA). He followed that up with proposals to buy Greenland from Denmark and take over the Panama Canal. That belief was fundamental to the Monroe Doctrine—which barred any ‘foreign’ interference in the Americas—and then led to a steady addition of territory, including Texas, Mexico, and Alaska, with a final land grab in 1898 with Hawaii. But American exceptionalism justified all this, with much talk of the ‘shining light of liberty’ and ‘leader of the free world’. That did have a certain weight, even as foreign policy chose to back a slew of dictators like General Pinochet of Chile and others.

Now the expansion remains, but exceptionalism is hardly commensurate with what is virtually a land grab, with Trump even refusing to rule out military or economic force to retake territory. In Greenland, it’s the fact that 25 of 34 critical minerals lie deep under the ice, and also that with a melting Arctic, the territory’s importance has grown as Russian and Chinese ships transit. In Panama, it is alleged Chinese interference in the Canal, with Hong Kong-based Hutchison running two ports since 1997.

There is no doubt of Chinese activity, with a new massive bridge coming up. Panama has since offered to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative, itself a win for the US. While all this could be a signature Trump foreign policy, the erosion of the principle of sovereignty is deeply troubling. For all its hollowness, the idea of an America that stood for liberty and freedom did underpin a ’world order’ of sorts. For India, that meant China would hesitate before it pounced on Arunachal, for instance. World opinion usually matters to a communist state, steeped in authoritarianism. Now no more?

Never Mind the People

Another principle being turned on its head is that of a humanitarian approach to policy. True again, for all the talk on ‘human rights’, places like Afghanistan, Syria, and others were bombed and strafed by the great powers. But the Gaza ‘proposal’ to turn the war torn strip into a ‘Rivera of the Middle East’ while relocating 1.8 million Palestinians is in a class of its own. President Trump proposes paying for all to allies, with Egypt and Jordan, the highest recipients of US aid, asked to house the refugees to allow for naked annexation. Again, all this is, in all probability, designed to push the Arab world—long indifferent to the plight of the Palestinians—to end one of the longest disputes in the world and not just leave it to Washington. But the bottom line is that suddenly, such mass movement of war-weary children and families has acquired a certain legitimacy. What America does today, the world does tomorrow. It’s a slippery slope. Who else will decide to ‘relocate’ troublesome humans? Bangladesh could use that to ghettoise its Hindus.

To the Forefront

Third is a deliberate move to encourage extreme right-wing politics. In a serious rupture with traditional allies. Vice President Vance’s diatribe at the recent Munich Security Conference, called for Europeans to heed ‘popular opinion’ in a reference right wing, traditionally kept at arm’s length. The right has had an unprecedented win in European Union and national elections last year and is virulently against all immigration and even foreign investment. That Vance chose to meet a German right-wing leader even while refusing the German Chancellor is a pointer to which way the wind blows. True that Europe has become dangerously ‘liberal’, kowtowing to violent elements for fear of being called Islamophobic; Europe has already begun cracking down on migrants, given that Europe always falls in line with US policies. Indians’ with ambitions should note.

There’s much more; the complete disdain for climate change, with even a presidential order rescinding federal orders against paper straws in a ‘back to plastic’ campaign, is another indication of a swing to a set of international principles not seen in centuries. It’s not that greed and acquisitiveness had disappeared in state behaviour. It was just not part of publicly declared, sanctioned foreign policy. Now they are. For India, this raises a mine of uncertainty.

Time to accept that Trump is about himself alone; friendships and bilateral commitments don’t matter much. Prepare to deal with that. Consider further the future of the Quad—the grouping of the US, Australia, India, and Japan—that have been proudly holding up a ‘rules-based order’. Is the new rule, ‘might is right’? That’s a call to Beijing to follow a transactional approach, something it is well placed to do. Not much for us, given our relatively smaller clout. There’s more, but overall in a time of moral backsliding, there is opportunity.

India must truly proclaim its ‘Vishwaguru’ credentials, not just for diplomacy, though the Global South is already alarmed at the ruthlessness of US policy. Time to gain ballast even more with that grouping, with some genuine principles. But, to be convincing, these principles have to be followed at home, with an equally Trumpian ruthlessness, setting aside caste and religious divisions to show India as a country that is united on those very principles that underlie the concept of “the world as one family” and standing strongly against expansionism and greed. The foundation is already there. After all, this is the land of the Buddha. Now to get it going on the ground.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.