Modi’s podcast with Fridman showed an astute leader on top of his game – Firstpost

During times of geopolitical strife, ‘hedge states’ have an advantage, especially if they enjoy capable leadership. That, in a nutshell, is the story of India as Donald Trump completes the last rites of what’s left of the erstwhile ‘rules-based order’, already in tatters due to full-blown wars in Europe and the Middle East and armed conflicts in several parts of the world.

India’s advantage stems not only from the fact that as an ambitious middle power it is in possession of a wealth of human capital that is driving the world’s fastest-growing large economy, the fifth largest in terms of GDP poised to climb to the third spot in the near future, but also from the fact that in Narendra Modi, it has an astute leader who strategically maintains good relationships with multiple major powers to navigate the turbulent geopolitical high seas and has the prudence to dip into the wellspring of civilisational wisdom that Indians are legatees to.

If you had the chance to watch the prime minister’s three-hour interaction with American computer scientist and podcaster Lex Fridman that aired Sunday, you’ll get what I mean. In several of Modi’s answers to searching questions on tricky foreign policy issues, the prime minister falls back on the distilled knowledge of a civilisation that is ancient and thriving at the same time, informing the world of India’s point of view that offers an alternative to the beleaguered Western world order that seems beset with instability.

The context is important. At a time when media reports have emerged that America may evict Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, indicating the depth of the crisis that the Anglo-American partnership has fallen into, India chaired a conclave of global intelligence chiefs focused on mitigating various security challenges. The Canadian spy chief took part, as did the head of Britain’s spy agency, MI6.

What’s more, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard held a one-on-one with India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval in New Delhi on Sunday. Gabbard, who will take part in the ongoing Raisina Dialogue, is the first top official from the second Trump administration to visit India, and the significance of this visit cannot be overstated. While Trump is ravaging America’s traditional ties with its treaty allies, including Canada, which has a testy relationship with India, ties with India appear on firmer ground.

This dynamic was clearly reflected in the comments made in the podcast by the prime minister. Safe to say that Trump hasn’t earned any friends among the Europeans or America’s Anglo-Saxon partners, most of whom struggle to contain their revulsion towards the 47th American president in public, but Modi appeared clearly respectful of a leader who is his own man, who takes his own decisions without getting swayed by advisors, and who appears equally unwavering before a bullet or the challenges that lie before him in uplifting his nation.

“Even after being shot, he (Trump) remained unwaveringly dedicated to America. His life was for his nation. This showed his America First spirit, just as I believe in nation-first, India First,” said Modi. “That’s why we connect so well. These are the things that truly resonate.”

This isn’t just mutual admiration, but one leader recognising another that they have faced similar challenges in their rise to the top and in shaping the destiny of their nations. Modi hinted at continued communication with Trump even when he wasn’t in power when he said, “People rarely get the chance to truly meet or personally know one another, and perhaps third-party intervention is the real cause of tensions…” and talked about the “mutual trust, a strong bond” that he enjoys with the American president.

This augurs well for India at a time when a Trump-led United States is being touted as the harbinger of chaos, and it shows the wisdom of the prime minister in keeping open the lines of communication with a mercurial leader. A better relationship with Trump, if ‘India First’ and ‘America First’ can be reconciled, is imperative for India’s continued capacity-building.

In Modi’s words on Ukraine, the similar pragmatism shone through. He advised Volodymyr Zelenskyy against being led up the garden path, again, by the Europeans and strongly recommended sitting across the table with his bête noire, Vladimir Putin, because a solution cannot be found on the battlefield.

Dipping into India’s reputation as the cradle of peace, as the land of Buddha and Gandhi that stands for harmony and concord, not conflict, Modi addressed Zelenskyy as “brother” and “mitra” (friend), to say, “regardless of how many people stand with you in the world, there will never be a resolution on the battlefield.”

Implicit in Modi’s statement was also a message for Putin that a ceasefire is the best option. “Initially, it was challenging to find peace, but now the current situation presents an opportunity for meaningful and productive talks between Ukraine and Russia. The resolution will only come when both Ukraine and Russia come to the negotiating table.”

In his overtures to China, Modi gave some surprising signals that hinted at a new modus vivendi. It is perhaps an indication that both nations are willing to set aside their animosity and distrust and take tentative steps towards mutual trust, but the underlying changes behind such an overture aren’t clear.

In his address at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York last September, India’s foreign minister, S Jaishankar, had said the relationship between the two countries is “significantly disturbed”.

Modi, however, expressed an optimism the basis for which isn’t clear. “Old records suggest that at one point India and China alone accounted for more than 50 per cent of the world’s GDP. That’s how massive India’s contribution was. And I believe our ties have been extremely strong, with deep cultural connections. If we look back centuries, there’s no real history of conflict between us. It has always been about learning from each other and understanding one another.”

Calling both nations “ancient civilizations”, the prime minister said, “even in the modern world, they play a significant role. If you look at historical records, for centuries, India and China have learned from each other. Together, they have always contributed to the global good in some way…”

Modi acknowledged that there have been “ongoing border disputes between us. And in 2020, the incidents along the border created significant tensions between our countries.” He claimed that “normalcy” has returned at the border while carefully avoiding to say the same about the state of bilateral ties.

“After my recent meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping, we have seen a return to normalcy at the border. We are now working to restore conditions to how they were before 2020. Slowly but surely, trust, enthusiasm, and energy will return. But of course, it will take some time, since there’s been a five-year gap.”

Modi cautions that “expansionism won’t work”, both in terms of the ongoing conflicts and India’s relationship with China, but on the latter, his cautious optimism is evident.

“Our relationship should remain just as strong in the future. It should continue to grow. Of course, differences are natural. When two neighbouring countries exist, occasional disagreements are bound to happen. Even within a family, not everything is always perfect. But our focus is to ensure that these differences don’t turn into disputes…”

Given the fractious state of global geopolitics, one way of looking at Modi’s positive signalling towards China is a hedging strategy against uncertainties in other theatres. Yet given the proximity of two rising powers, Modi perhaps recognises the inevitability of a working relationship between two troubled neighbours and pitches India as a pragmatic actor that prioritises stability over conflict.

Given India’s strategic culture that is more adjacent to China’s than the West’s, the message will go through.

The writer is Deputy Executive Editor, Firstpost. He tweets as @sreemoytalukdar. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.