Netanyahu has no reason to stop – Firstpost

Gaza has become the plaything of extremist approaches. Gazans hang by the thread between expulsion from their battered land and hope of reconstruction and rehabilitation with the help of the Arabs. They are in a highly primitive situation with no humanitarian assistance allowed. Talks galore but no real solution. Hardline positions by Hamas, Israel and the US would not yield any scope for ending this nearly one-and-a-half-year-old war, which has been unprecedented for both the Israelis and Palestinians in terms of losses of lives, prestige and dignity.

It has also exposed the vulnerability and hypocrisy of the international community which gapes at the disaster as a bystander. It was said by US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff that extending the first phase of the ceasefire through Ramadan rather than entering into a difficult second and later the third phase ending complete occupation would alleviate the suffering of the Gazans and the hostages alike. Hamas did not buy this idea, and Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to destroy Hamas and its military capabilities and complete denial in the Gaza governance in the day-after scenario, has resumed fighting. He has even threatened to take over and annex Gaza by force if the hostages are not released immediately.

On the other hand, Hamas is still indulging in bravado even as its successive leaders have been killed by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) in the most recent offensive. The prolonged fighting has shown that every time some hostages have been released, it has happened during or after some kind of a ceasefire has been achieved, however tenuous these have been.

The latest ceasefire was more of a convenience to please the big boss Trump before his entry into the White House – the second time. He had threatened both sides, and the two obliged. Netanyahu was rewarded with an early audience by Trump at the White House with lots of goodies and assurances to continue moving in his tracks.

Trump even wanted to resolve the Gaza issue by throwing out Palestinians and developing the beautiful real estate for everyone but the Palestinians to inhabit and enjoy. This was not very different from Netanyahu’s original plan, which he keeps propounding repeatedly in the statements of his and his ultra-right political bedfellows. Gaza has tremendous strategic value, from gas to transit and connectivity, let alone its beautiful coastline. If Tel Aviv could, it would love to hold it dearly.

But in all these machinations and threats to somewhat pliable and dependent Arab states and allies of the US, the backlash from the street and the meek international community was perhaps not factored in. Palestinians and the world have not forgotten the Nakba, and the second Nakba might have its consequences in yet another Intifada. Hence, Trump’s proposal woke up the Arabs, led by Saudi Arabia, to come up with an alternative.

Egyptians, who, along with the Qataris and Americans, have been working on the ceasefire and plans for the day after for months, put out another proposal which was accepted by the Arab League and the OIC, putting a financial commitment of $53 bn on the table. Meanwhile, Trump also tempered and backed down, at least overtly, stating that no one was expelling Palestinians from Gaza.

Despite that, talks have been going on with many destinations in Africa since overtly the economically flailing Egyptians and Jordanians – both peace treaty partners of Israel – declined to accept millions of more refugees, let alone their strategic compulsions if they were to accede to such orders. One of the key recipients is the breakaway Somaliland in return for US diplomatic recognition and financial and security assistance.

King Abdullah II of Jordan, whose kingdom already has over sixty per cent Palestinians as citizens and a large number of refugees, during his White House meeting pleaded with Trump while accepting a critically ill couple of thousand children. Jordanians have also recalled their ambassador yet again in the wake of the recent and ongoing military onslaught by the IDF and advised the Israeli ambassador to stay in Tel Aviv.

For King Abdullah, being the custodian of the third holiest Al Aqsa Mosque and Christian religious places, the Jerusalem sanctity and legitimacy are critically important. A recent controversy on the alleged Egyptian stance – that they were willing to let over half a million Gazans stay in Sinai during the reconstruction phase – was vehemently denied by them. Arm twisting also has its own limitations when confronted with grassroots political reality and challenges.

As soon as Netanyahu resumed fighting, his estranged ultra-rightist and anti-ceasefire partner Itamar Ben Gvir rejoined the cabinet, which indicates that Netanyahu will have to continue intensifying the war until he has achieved his ‘so-called’ objectives, despite the almost vertically divided nation.

The Israeli PM even fired his Shin Bet chief, Ronen Brar, accusing him of plotting against his regime. Another one was the so-called ‘Qatar Gate’, in which an Israeli businessman, Gil Birger, admitted that he had transferred funds from a Qatari lobbyist to Eli Feldstein, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s media team – unlikely to make any impact except a minor blip, as Bibi himself, being mired in corruption cases, has not yielded.

There is no dearth of issues of disaffection among the Israelis, from economic and security stresses to the release of the remaining 59 hostages. But divided as they may be, the polls show that Netanyahu does not have any grave threat domestically going forward if he pursues the invasion yet again.

In a Maariv poll (March 21) a majority of Israelis—57 per cent—believe Israel should “continue fighting with full force until Hamas agrees to a deal”. Only 34 per cent think the fighting should stop in favour of negotiations, and 9 per cent are undecided. This divide is largely partisan—while 89 per cent of coalition voters support intensifying military action, opposition voters are split, with 51 per cent favouring an end to the fighting and 40 per cent calling for escalation. As for the annexation of Gaza, the same is nearly true, even if the polls may not be truly representative. As many as 59 per cent of the coalition voters support territorial annexation, whereas opposition voters lean toward a ceasefire and renewed talks (40 per cent).

Hence, the writing on the wall is quite clear that Netanyahu really has no incentive or disincentive to stop until and unless President Trump changes his mind one fine day that ‘enough is enough’. Meanwhile, the plight of Gazans will have no respite.

The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.