South Korea has got a new president, but the challenges remain  – Firstpost

Lee Jae-myung of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is the new occupant of Cheong Wa Dae, the presidential palace in Seoul, also known as the Blue House. He won the snap presidential election on June 3. Lee succeeds Yoon Suk-yeol, the now-disgraced former president from the conservative People Power Party (PPP), whose short-lived declaration of martial law in December led to his impeachment and unanimous removal from office by the Constitutional Court.

With Lee’s election, the chaos, confusion, and confrontation that have defined the past six months in South Korea has supposedly ended. But has it really? I’ll answer that shortly.

Key Issues in the Election

The presidential election wasn’t due until 2027 and wouldn’t have happened this early under normal circumstances. But that changed on the night of December 3, 2024, when former President Yoon shocked the nation by declaring martial law. The move triggered mass protests, and on December 14, parliament voted to impeach him.

Under the South Korean Constitution, a snap election must be held within 60 days of the Constitutional Court upholding the impeachment and formally removing the president.

Given this backdrop, Yoon’s failed martial law bid became the defining issue of the election, pushing all others to the sidelines. Lee campaigned on promises to strengthen democracy and heal a divided nation. He also vowed to prosecute those involved in Yoon’s martial law attempt and implement stricter limits on a president’s ability to declare such powers.

However, other pressing issues remain for Lee to address, without the typical two-month honeymoon period usually granted to South Korean presidents. These include a faltering economy, spiraling prices, the unpredictable trade policies of Donald Trump, worsening ties with North Korea, and the delicate balancing act between China—South Korea’s biggest trading partner—and the US, its key strategic ally.

A Foregone Conclusion

Because the election was framed from the start by the failed martial law, the People Power Party was on the defensive. The result, therefore, felt like a foregone conclusion. Unsurprisingly, it unfolded along expected lines.

Lee Jae-myung of the DPK was elected the 21st President of the Republic of Korea, defeating Kim Moon-soo of the ruling PPP.

Here’s what happened:

According to the National Election Commission (NEC), 79.4 per cent of the country’s 44.4 million eligible voters cast their ballots—the highest turnout since the 1997 presidential election. Lee Jae-myung secured 49.4 per cent of the vote. Kim Moon-soo of the PPP came second with 41.2 percent. Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party, a PPP splinter group, received 8.3 percent. Kwon Young-guk of the hastily formed Democratic Labor Party trailed far behind with 1 percent.

Strongest in Decades

When Lee lost the 2022 presidential election to Yoon Suk-yeol by the narrowest margin in South Korea’s democratic history (47.83 per cent to 48.56 per cent), many declared his political career over.

But just a year later, in the 2024 legislative elections, he led his party to a resounding victory, securing 173 seats—a two-thirds majority. When Yoon declared martial law on December 3, Lee seized the moment. He stormed the National Assembly in a dramatic late-night session to pass a resolution opposing the declaration, forcing Yoon to reverse his decision within hours. Lee’s popularity surged, and, as widely expected, the 61-year-old was swiftly inaugurated on Wednesday, June 3.

In a rare occurrence, Lee and his party now control both the presidency and parliament. This dual control makes him one of the most powerful presidents in South Korea’s democratic history. It could prove to be a double-edged sword—more on that later.

For now, a unified government offers Lee an opportunity to govern assertively until the next legislative election in 2028. He won’t need many conservative votes to advance his agenda, while the conservative party itself is mired in internal crisis.

The Reality Bites

Lee’s victory might have seemed inevitable given the conservatives’ disarray. The PPP was so divided it struggled to even nominate a candidate before settling on Kim, a former leftist turned far-right firebrand.

Given these dynamics, the PPP should have suffered a crushing defeat. But it didn’t. And that’s the sobering reality.

South Korea remains politically fractured, and the post-election crisis is as serious as it was before—if not more so.

Fragile Victory

Despite an 8-point margin, Lee’s victory is more fragile than it first appears.

Here’s a closer look:

• If Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok (8.3 per cent of the vote) had not run, the gap between Lee and the PPP would have been much narrower.

• Excluding two southwestern provinces—DPK strongholds where Lee won over 80 per cent—his lead over the PPP was just 26,000 votes out of nearly 35 million cast.

• In Seoul, the nation’s capital and economic hub, the combined conservative vote exceeded Lee’s by 0.5 percent.

Rise of the Far Right

The right-wing, and especially the far-right, remains a potent force. In conservative heartlands, their support has only grown.

The two conservative candidates—Kim (41.15 per cent) and Lee Jun-seok (8.34 per cent)—together garnered more votes than Lee Jae-myung (49.42 per cent).

Exit polls show far-right appeal is especially strong among young men. Three-quarters of men in their twenties voted for the two far-right candidates, compared to just over 58 per cent of women in that age group who supported Lee.

In the 30s age bracket, around 60 per cent of men voted conservative, while 57 per cent of women voted for Lee.

2017 vs 2025

This isn’t South Korea’s first post-impeachment snap election. In 2017, following the impeachment of conservative President Park Geun-hye, liberal Moon Jae-in won.

History repeated in 2025. Another conservative president was impeached, and another liberal won.

But 2017 didn’t mark the end of conservatism in South Korea. The same could be true in 2025—if conservatives are willing to reform and rebuild.

Decoding Lee Jae-myung

If there’s one word that defines Lee Jae-myung, it’s “survivor”. He’s endured extreme poverty, two suicide attempts, a near-fatal assassination, numerous criminal charges, and the martial law crisis.

Now comes his toughest test: leading a deeply divided nation through a host of internal and external challenges.

Lee, largely unknown outside South Korea, rose from hardship. According to his memoirs, he was the fifth of seven children in a dirt-poor family. Forced to leave school at 14, he worked in factories, suffering a workplace injury that left his left arm impaired. In 1982, he gained university admission on a full merit scholarship and later passed the notoriously difficult bar exam to become a lawyer.

His rags-to-riches story resonates in a country that went from war-torn poverty to economic powerhouse in one generation.

Boon or Bane

Lee has cultivated an image as a pragmatic reformer focused on economic inequality. His journey from child laborer to lawyer to political leader is inspiring to many.

But he’s also polarising. Though he maintains his innocence, he faces multiple criminal charges, including bribery and election violations. He’s seen by critics as a radical populist with little respect for democratic norms or institutional checks.

Whether he becomes a reformist statesman like Kim Dae-jung—or another strongman—depends on his choices in the months ahead.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the peaceful conduct of this snap election, South Korea faces a long list of pressing issues:

Domestically:

• Deep political and societal polarisation

• A slipping economy, with a 0.3 per cent contraction in quarter 1 and possible recession in quarter 2

• Skyrocketing consumer prices

• One of the world’s lowest birthrates and a rapidly ageing population

• An urgent need for institutional reform, including a proposed shift to a four-year presidential term with re-election

Externally:

• Navigating between China (biggest trading partner) and the US (strategic ally)

• Restarting dialogue with North Korea after three years of deteriorating ties

• Coping with US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies

• Managing the North Korea–Russia military partnership

Most urgent of all: healing the national divide and kick-starting growth in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

And What If…

As the celebration fades, Lee faces a sobering reality.

He is still on trial in the Supreme Court for election law violations. The trial was postponed to avoid influencing the vote. A conviction could have disqualified him from running.

Now that he’s president, the law states he cannot be prosecuted for criminal offenses—except for treason or insurrection. But it’s unclear what happens if he’s found guilty. That uncertainty may hang over his presidency for months to come.

The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.