Strategic consequences of Pakistan’s growing dependence on China – Firstpost
Pakistan’s sovereignty is increasingly at risk due to its deepening strategic and economic dependence on China. Initially perceived as a mutually beneficial partnership, the relationship between Pakistan and China has evolved into one marked by significant concessions from Pakistan. Islamabad’s mounting debt from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and granting fishing rights indicate this shift. These developments undermine Pakistan’s autonomy and threaten regional stability in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This analysis explores the implications of these trends, drawing parallels between China’s actions in Pakistan and its expansionist strategies in the South China Sea (SCS).
China’s Strategic Influence
The CPEC and Territorial Encroachments
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was once hailed as a transformative initiative for Pakistan, promising infrastructure development, job creation, and economic growth. However, more contemporary developments suggest a more ominous reality. China’s growing control in areas like the Gwadar SEZ and granting fishing rights to Chinese vessels signal a significant shift in the partnership. These transactions go beyond mere economic deals, reflecting China’s growing strategic influence in Pakistan. By securing control over strategically important maritime zones, such as those near Gwadar, China has been able to extend its reach and capabilities into the Arabian Sea.
China’s Maritime Strategy
China’s actions in Pakistan mirror its broader maritime strategy, particularly in how it exploits maritime resources under the guise of development. The fishing rights granted to Chinese vessels, particularly around the Gwadar port and its adjacent waters, illustrate this strategy. These rights not only deprive local Pakistani fishermen of their livelihoods but also allow China to exploit maritime resources with little regard for environmental sustainability. China’s practice of illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing has already devastated ecosystems and communities in other regions. If these practices continue unchecked in Pakistan, the consequences for the local environment and economy could be severe, further undermining Pakistan’s sovereignty over its own resources.
The South China Sea Playbook: A Warning for the IOR
China’s tactics in the SCS serve as a cautionary tale for Pakistan and other nations in the IOR. Over the decades, China has systematically occupied and militarised various islands in the SCS, using them to assert control over the sea lanes despite international objections. Beginning with the Paracel Islands in the 1950s and extending to the militarisation of the Spratly Islands in recent years, China’s strategy has been characterised by unilateralism and disregard for international law.
Pakistan: Trapped in China’s Debt Web as BRI Stalls
The Double-Edged Sword of the Belt and Road Initiative
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), mainly through CPEC, was initially seen as a beacon of hope for Pakistan’s economic revival. The promise of new infrastructure, enhanced connectivity, and economic prosperity led Pakistan to embrace the BRI enthusiastically. However, the reality has been far more complex and troubling. As BRI projects keep stalling due to financial mismanagement, corruption, and political instability, the anticipated benefits have failed to materialise. Instead, Pakistan finds itself burdened with incomplete projects, mounting debt, and increasing economic insecurity. The dream of economic revival through the BRI has turned into a nightmare of debt dependency, with Pakistan now heavily reliant on Chinese loans and investments to keep its economy afloat.
Debt Diplomacy: Erosion of Economic Sovereignty
Pakistan’s growing debt to China has reached alarming levels, with loans often taken on unfavourable and binding terms. This debt dependency has eroded Pakistan’s economic sovereignty, limiting its ability to make independent decisions and increasing its dependence on Beijing’s strategic objectives. The need to service these debts has forced Pakistan to divert substantial revenue from essential social and economic development, further exacerbating domestic challenges. Moreover, this economic strain has led Pakistan to make strategic concessions, such as ceding maritime resources and granting Chinese fishing rights that are detrimental to local ecosystems and communities. The economic vulnerabilities created by this debt trap have profound implications for Pakistan’s future, making it increasingly difficult for the country to chart an independent course in domestic and foreign policies.
The Stalling of BRI and Its Impact on Pakistan
The BRI has faced significant slowdowns due to economic challenges within China, shifting global priorities, and growing scrutiny over the initiative’s long-term benefits. These challenges have directly impacted Pakistan, with key CPEC projects being delayed or scaled down, leaving the country with a half-finished infrastructure and a growing sense of economic disillusionment. The promise of economic revival through the BRI has not only failed to materialise but has also led to widespread dissatisfaction among the Pakistani public. The stalling of BRI projects has further damaged public perception in Pakistan, where China is increasingly viewed with suspicion as the promised economic benefits remain elusive.
Public Perception and Diplomatic Isolation
The growing public discontent in Pakistan over the unfulfilled promises of the BRI has led to the perceived benefits of the partnership being questioned, and there is increasing concern about the long-term implications of China’s influence over Pakistan’s economy and sovereignty. This shift in public perception could have significant diplomatic consequences, as Pakistan’s increasingly close ties with China alienate it from other regional and global partners. The risk of diplomatic pushback, particularly as other countries in the region and beyond grow increasingly wary of Beijing’s expansionist ambitions and its disregard for international norms and sovereignty.
Strategic Consequences for Pakistan and the Region
Pakistan’s Strategic Vulnerability
The strategic consequences of China’s debt linked to the BRI are extensive for Pakistan. These developments represent a gradual erosion of Pakistan’s autonomy, transforming it from a strategic partner into a potential client of China. This shift threatens Pakistan’s strategic autonomy and has broader implications for regional stability. The country’s ability to make independent strategic decisions is increasingly compromised as it becomes more dependent on Chinese economic aid and strategic support. The erosion of sovereignty is not just a theoretical concern; it has tangible implications for Pakistan.
Implications for India and the Indian Ocean Region
China’s aggressive tactics in the South China Sea provide a blueprint for its actions in the Indian Ocean. By securing strategic footholds in Pakistan, China could disrupt the balance of power in the region, posing a direct challenge to India’s maritime interests. The growing Chinese presence in Pakistan, particularly in strategically important areas like Gwadar, could have significant security implications for India. India must remain vigilant and proactive in countering China’s influence, particularly as it seeks to expand its regional strategic footprint.
Pakistan’s entanglement in China’s debt web, combined with the strategic concessions it has made in its maritime zones and economic sectors, poses severe risks to its sovereignty and should serve as a warning to both Pakistan and other nations in the IOR. As China continues to expand its influence through economic dependence, Pakistan, for its people’s sake, must reassess its relationship with Beijing, considering the broader implications for its sovereignty, security, and future. The time to act is now before these developments become irreversible for its already taxed countrymen. The future of Pakistan’s strategic autonomy hinges on its ability to navigate this complex and increasingly unequal partnership with China.
Admiral Sunil Lanba (Retd) is a former Chief of the Naval Staff (CNS) of the Indian Navy and former Chairman of the National Maritime Foundation (NMF), India’s premier maritime think-tank. He is a noted columnist and security analyst and has been instrumental in shaping the nation’s naval strategy and advancing maritime security initiatives. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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