Telecom earnings preview: Jio may lead in revenue growth; Airtel likely to top ARPU number, Vi steadies user base

Reliance Jio may have outpaced Bharti Airtel in both overall revenue and per-user revenue growth in the June quarter, aided by strong additions in its high-paying fixed wireless access (FWA) home broadband segment, analysts said ahead of the telecom sector’s first-quarter earnings.Market leader Jio is expected to report a 1.8% sequential jump in average revenue per user (ARPU) to Rs 210, driven by the addition of 2 million FWA users—part of a likely net addition of 7.2 million subscribers, according to JM Financial. Airtel while likely to clock a higher ARPU at Rs 249, may see a lower sequential growth rate of 1.6%, the brokerage added, according to an ET report.Vodafone Idea (Vi), meanwhile, is projected to report an ARPU of Rs 167, up 1.6% from the previous quarter, buoyed by subscriber upgrades, improved user mix, and one extra day in the June quarter. Crucially, Vi is also expected to maintain its user base for the first time in recent memory, aided by an expanding 4G footprint and wider rollout of services.

Revenue outlook diverges on network and strategy

Jio’s strong subscriber additions are set to translate into a 2.7% quarter-on-quarter rise in revenue to Rs 31,200 crore, JM Financial estimated. However, its standalone net profit may stay flat at Rs 6,640 crore, due to the full-quarter impact of higher depreciation and amortisation following 5G spectrum capitalisation and fixed asset additions in the March quarter.

Telecom financial snapshot: Q1 FY26 estimates (Compared to Jan–Mar ’25)

Source: JM Financial, BofA Securities, as reported ET.Airtel’s wireless service revenues are forecast to grow 2.6% to Rs 27,305 crore, while its consolidated net profit could jump 47% sequentially to Rs 7,690 crore, on the back of robust mobile broadband growth. JM Financial expects Airtel to add 5.5 million mobile broadband users in Q1—down from 6.6 million in Q4 FY25—while its total subscriber addition is pegged at 2.3 million, the report said.According to BofA Securities, Airtel’s enterprise revenues may remain under pressure due to its exit from low-margin commodity wholesale voice services.For Vodafone Idea, JM Financial expects a modest 1.1% sequential rise in revenue to Rs 11,100 crore, with net loss narrowing slightly to Rs 7,145 crore. Analysts say Vi’s stabilising user base—after years of decline—is a result of its improving network and recent 5G expansion.“We consider this trend to sustain going ahead, given a better network now,” BofA noted in a report.

Tariff hike already priced in

The impact of the recent tariff hikes by telcos has already played out, and analysts now anticipate the next round of price increases only by next year. “We expect telcos to raise tariffs by around 12% in 2026,” BofA Securities said.Vi recently launched phase two of its 5G rollout across 23 cities, aiming to cover all 17 of its priority circles. However, the telco still lags nearly 2.5 years behind Jio and Airtel in the 5G race, having lost significant market share since the rollout began.