The effects of Gaza War and changing balance of power in Middle East – Firstpost

The geopolitical and security landscape of the Middle East has undergone tremendous and unprecedented shifts over the past year, with both short-term and long-term implications. The regional powers as well as extra-regional powers are responding to these changes vis-à-vis their strategic interests while recalibrating their alliances, military postures, and diplomatic engagements to safeguard their influence and adapt to the changing balance of power.

Effects of the Gaza War

Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, regional politics has become increasingly polarised. The war has led to three major consequences that continue to shape the region’s political and strategic landscape.

First, it has brought the Palestinian issue back to the centre of regional politics, reversing the trend of relative sidelining in recent years. Before the Gaza war, the priority for the majority of the Arab world largely focused on economic cooperation, regional integration, and pragmatic diplomacy, enabling the signing of the Abraham Accords. However, the war reignited public outrage that has now compelled them to maintain caution regarding their engagement with Israel. Also, the scale of destruction and humanitarian crisis in Gaza has led to increased international scrutiny of Israel’s actions, triggering widespread protests, boycotts, and diplomatic tensions. Many Western governments, while traditionally supportive of Israel, have faced growing domestic and international pressure to reassess their policies, and countries in the Global South have become more vocal in advocating for Palestinian statehood and rights.

Second, the war has strengthened Israel’s position in terms of security and severely weakened Iran’s regional influence. The fall of the Assad regime has dismantled Iran’s strategic depth, eliminating a key ally that facilitated Tehran’s military and logistical support to Hezbollah and other proxy groups. Additionally, the loss of key Hamas and Hezbollah leadership figures as well as significant damage to their military infrastructure has further eroded Iran’s deterrence capabilities. Coupled with Iran’s struggling economy due to sanctions Tehran now faces significant limitations and greater challenges in projecting power across the region.

Third, the inconsistencies in the US stance on global conflicts have become a major point of contention, particularly its firm opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while simultaneously extending unwavering support to Israeli actions in Gaza. This contradiction has undermined international law and further sabotaged the rules-based order, especially now in light of Trump’s proposal to relocate Gazans in clear violation of international laws and UN resolutions. This has further eroded US credibility and has prompted regional countries to advocate for a more autonomous regional security framework.

Shifts in regional balance of power

As mentioned earlier, one of the most important reasons for the changing regional balance of power is the weakening of Iran’s “axis of resistance”. This is especially evident in the cases of Lebanon and Syria, as both Beirut and Damascus now appear to be re-integrating into the Arab fold. After a political deadlock for two years, General Joseph Aoun was recently elected president after securing parliamentary support in Lebanon. Some local newspapers had reported that international financial assistance that is critical for Lebanon’s economy hinged on the victory of General Aoun.

Soon after Aoun’s victory, the UAE decided to reopen its embassy in Lebanon, while Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited the country for the first time in 15 years, expressing support and optimism about the recent changes. These responses indicate possibilities for increased economic and diplomatic cooperation between Lebanon and the Gulf states. Given Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis, regional support is vital for its recovery, especially as a significant portion of Lebanon’s remittances comes from the Gulf which highlights the importance of these ties.

Similarly, Syria, which was the key ally of Iran in the region, has now begun shifting its diplomatic posture indicating its willingness to deepen cooperation with the Gulf states. The new Syrian government led by the interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has already engaged in talks with European and American officials, as well as with representatives from Gulf states. Türkiye’s increasing influence in the country will be a determining factor in the future engagement of Syria with other regional powers as well as the limits of its strategic autonomy. Moreover, its increasing attack against the Kurds introduces new complexities and crises placing Ankara in the regional power poles capable of influencing the evolving regional dynamics.

Despite widespread criticism, Israel is currently in a stronger position militarily, and the Netanyahu government plans to reshape its security strategy by capitalizing on the regional turmoil. However, Israel’s goal of completely dismantling Hamas remains distant, as the underlying security threat to Israel will persist as long as it maintains its occupation and continues to violate international law. Israel is expanding its control by moving forces into the demilitarised zone in Syria’s Golan Heights, effectively nullifying the 1974 buffer agreement.

In December 2023 Israel launched over 480 airstrikes across Syria, targeting key locations like Latakia and Bayda. Israeli actions indicate a broader strategy to reshape regional borders unilaterally. The Netanyahu government is grappling with intense domestic pressure to maintain its coalition while facing criticism over its failure to secure the hostages’ release and mounting economic challenges. Israel’s aggressive policy will intensify tensions making sustainable peace increasingly elusive, especially as it would increase tensions and create more divergences with regional countries.

The role of the US, China and Russia

While the US remains the most significant military force in the Middle East, its unipolar moment has eroded in the last two decades. Now, the extent of US involvement in the region remains uncertain, as Trump’s foreign policy is projected to be more transactional, avoiding deep military entanglements. His reluctance to engage in direct military interventions or long-term strategic commitments may create a power vacuum, potentially emboldening regional actors to pursue more assertive policies independent of US influence. Also, the Trump administration’s move to dismantle USAID, through funding freezes and layoffs, disrupts humanitarian efforts in the Middle East. Cuts to aid programs could potentially weaken US influence and leverage and may also push traditional American allies to seek alternative partnerships.

Perhaps the most important extra-regional player in the Middle East in the last decade has been China. China’s engagement in the Middle East has increased significantly, driven by economic, energy, and strategic interests. Also, China has expanded its diplomatic footprint in the Middle East, leveraging mediation efforts like the Saudi-Iran rapprochement in 2023 and the Hamas-Fatah national unity agreement in 2024 projecting itself as a responsible global power. While it does not seek to replace the US as the region’s primary security provider, China aims to challenge US dominance through economic and technological engagement and strategic diplomacy.

Beijing aspires to position itself as the leading advocate for Palestinian interests challenging Washington’s position in the region. Amid the Gaza war, Beijing has criticised the US and aligned with the position of the Global South while trying to strike a balanced approach engaging closely with all regional powers. However, China’s regional diplomatic manoeuvres face a major limitation, as it has little influence over Israel, and only Israeli actions can ultimately shape the course of the Gaza war. Moreover, Beijing’s close ties with Tehran complicate its attempts to project itself as a neutral player in the region.

Russia is already embroiled in the Ukraine war and has significant limitations in adjusting to the rapid and unprecedented changes in the Middle East. Russia recently held talks with the new Syrian leadership which has demanded the return of Bashar al-Assad and compensation for past actions, while Moscow seeks to retain its military bases in the country. Discussions remain inconclusive, with both sides agreeing to continue negotiations. In any case, Russian military influence in the region remains limited and challenged in the current context after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

Emerging scenarios amid security challenges

If Trump’s policies deviate from a two-state solution, they could further destabilise the region. His proposals to relocate Gazans to Egypt and Jordan have already been rejected by regional countries, and his post-meeting plan with Netanyahu to “take over” and “clean up” Gaza has been widely viewed as bizarre. If this approach continues, Washington will face increasing challenges.

Meanwhile, despite Iran’s significant internal and external pressures as well as its economic limitations its military capabilities remain a formidable asset. Iran is likely to leverage its nuclear threshold status to pressure the US and if its leadership loses all hope for negotiations, Tehran could escalate regional instability by mobilising its loyalists—a possibility recently reiterated by Iran’s Vice President for Strategic Affairs, Javad Zarif, at the World Economic Forum. In this sense, the extent of Tehran’s vulnerabilities and the consequences of Washington’s approach will have far-reaching implications.

The recent developments indicate the reshaping of regional security architecture in a relatively more multipolar Middle East. It also reflects the shifting balance of power, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE asserting greater diplomatic and economic leadership in the region while also diversifying their defence partnerships and foreign policy steadily which could potentially increase their strategic autonomy. The extent to which the US can retain its influence hinges on Trump’s approach and his willingness to generate regional consensus rather than imposing unilateral decisions. The regional countries will remain extremely cautious about the evolving situation and will likely utilise their resources to foster a more independent and competitive security arrangement amid uncertainties looming over the region.

Nadeem Ahmed Moonakal is a research scholar at Rasanah: International Institute for Iranian Studies, Riyadh. He writes on the security and political developments in the Middle East and South Asia and his research focuses on the emerging geopolitics of the Middle East. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.