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Opinion

Trump’s Ukraine arms freeze highlights Zelenskyy’s dilemma – Firstpost

Trump’s Ukraine arms freeze highlights Zelenskyy’s dilemma – Firstpost


All it took was 10 minutes. Everything exploded for Ukraine as Volodymyr Zelenskyy tripped a booby-trap bomb meticulously devised and cleverly planted by Donald Trump at the Oval Office on February 28.

“Oh! You’re all dressed up,” the US president sarcastically told his Ukrainian counterpart before walking him into the ambush laid by him and his deputy JD Vance, who goaded the Ukrainian president to an ugly slugfest.

Zelenskyy’s mugging had been elaborately planned. Ideally, it should have been a one-on-one closed-door meeting between the two leaders on the most dangerous global crisis followed by a joint press conference.

Instead, Vance, secretary of state Marco Rubio, NSA Mike Waltz, defence secretary Pete Hegseth and treasury secretary Scott Bessent were present along with a handful of reporters, including from the BBC, CNN, Reuters and CNBC, among others.

What followed instead was a brawl started by Vance with Trump landing vicious punches at Zelenskyy.

Two incidents proved that it was a trap.

First, Dmitry Kirsanov, the Washington, D.C., bureau chief of Russian state media TASS, witnessed the showdown. He was escorted out by the Secret Service with the White House claiming he was uninvited.

Second, Brian Glenn, of the upstart online TV news outlet Right Side Broadcasting Network and boyfriend of MAGA champ Marjorie Taylor Greene, the hard-right Georgian representative, asked Zelenskyy why he wasn’t in a suit. It was followed by derisive laughter and Trump’s wink.

A humiliated Zelenskyy left without signing the much-touted minerals deal with Trump, triggering his rage and Republican opprobrium.

Finally, Trump’s increasing antagonism manifested in the pause of all military assistance, including weapons on the way, to Ukraine.

Past help to Ukraine goes down the drain.

America had been militarily assisting Ukraine through presidential drawdown authority (quick supply of weapons from the Pentagon’s stockpiles) and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (longer-term contracts to send arms).

US Congress appropriated 
$182.75 billion for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, of which $65.9 billion in military aid was sent to Ukraine. The US contributed 52% of the total NATO aid, including financial and humanitarian, to Ukraine. The Joe Biden administration sent 74 US military aid packages to Ukraine, the largest being $3 billion. The Trump administration still has $3.85 billion of the appropriated amount to send weapons to Ukraine.

All that went down the drain in a jiffy.

The sophisticated American and European weapons helped Ukraine counter the Russian onslaught, shoot down drones and missiles and strike deep inside Russian-held territory.

The US contributed around 20 per cent to total military supplies to Ukraine.

  • The Patriot air defence battery

  • The long-range Army Tactical Missile System **(**ATACMS)

  • The High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (Himars)

  • Hawk missile system

  • Stinger anti-aircraft missiles

  • Abrams and T-72B tanks

  • Millions of rounds of artillery (155mm and 105mm Howitzers), ammunition and grenades

  • Hundreds of thousands of anti-tank (Javelin) and anti-armour systems

  • Hundreds of armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles (Bradley)

  • Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost tactical UAVs and Puma UAVs

  • After Biden lifted the restriction on F-16s in August 2023, other NATO members started supplying the jets to Ukraine and training its pilots.

Besides, Elon Musk’s Starlink and US intelligence play an important role in the war. Trump could instruct Musk and the intelligence to stop sharing data with Ukraine.

Ukraine stares at a dark road

Ukraine has lost around 20 per cent of its territory, including Crimea, mainly in the southeast. 
According to the UN, more than 6.3 million Ukrainian refugees are in Europe. Around 3.7 million people are internally displaced and another 6.9 million seek refuge and asylum outside Ukraine. Almost 42,000 civilians are dead.

The pause in US arms supplies will not lead to an immediate collapse of Ukraine’s defence. However, the American inventory will not last beyond two to three months as tens of thousands of troops battle the Russians along the 1,000-km-long eastern front.

Europe contributes around 25 per cent to Ukraine’s military supplies and Ukraine funds the remaining 55 per cent.

So, why does America’s 20 per cent contribution matter more to Ukraine?

The US share was the cream of the total military supplies—the most lethal and effective.

In December 2023, Ukraine claimed to have downed 15 hypersonic air-launched Kinzhal ballistic missiles with the Patriot, which has a range of 160 km.

The biggest impact of Trump’s decision will be on Ukrainian air defence. A shortage of interceptor missiles for the five Patriot systems in Ukraine will make major Ukrainian cities again vulnerable to Russian missiles. Zelenskyy said in February that the Patriot missile stock was dangerously low and asked for 20 batteries and a licence to produce the missiles domestically.

A shocked EU rallied behind Ukraine after the explosive Trump-Zelenskyy clash. The UK, Germany, Norway, France, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium and others backed Zelenskyy.

Europe sensed the spiking Trump-Zelenskyy tension days before the White House clash and feared a drastic step by the US. Last month, European leaders were already working on a military aid package worth €20 billion for Ukraine.

The UK has pledged $2 billion to supply 5,000 short-range Martlet air defence missiles (8 km range). Norwegian firm Kongsberg will produce surface-to-air missiles for Ukraine’s 13 NASAMS medium-range air defence batteries (30-60 km).

Ukraine also has two Eurosam SAMP/T missile batteries, which are as good as the Patriot in range and other features. However, the Eurosam can intercept only aircraft and ballistic missiles while the Patriot can shoot down aircraft, drones and ballistic and cruise missiles.

Moreover, Europe can’t compensate for the ATACMS and the HIMARS.

Storm Shadow (SCALP-EG), the Franco-British long-range air-launched cruise missile, can be fired only from the Ukrainian Su-24 Fencer bomber. Ukraine lacks the required number of Fencers, which can also be targeted by Russian jets and missiles. Besides, the ATACMS has a range of 300 km while the Storm Shadow can hit targets up to 250 km.

The HIMARS can fire one ATACMS or six Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) rockets from its single pod. The system’s pod is also interchangeable with the M270 MLRS, used by Ukraine.

Despite the increasing use of drones and missiles in the war, the 155mm artillery rounds remain relevant. The US arms halt will severely impact the use of Howitzers. In 2024, other NATO allies delivered around 1 million 155 mm artillery shells to Ukraine while the US supplied 3 million.

The US arms freeze will have a catastrophic effect both militarily and psychologically. When Trumpsters in the House of Representatives held up the $60-billion Ukraine aid package in December 2023, Ukraine’s counteroffensive suffered a massive blow.

Zelenskyy never had a choice

Further European support won’t improve Ukraine’s battlefield prospects—in fact, US military help didn’t either. It was a foregone conclusion that the conflict was a grinding war that Ukraine could never win.

Zelenskyy didn’t realise that even with Biden’s help and if Kamala Harris won, Ukraine would have never defeated Russia.

Zelenskyy never had a choice even if he hadn’t taken Trump’s bait at the Oval Office.

Zelenskyy wanted a peace deal with Russia and a minerals pact with the US that would have guaranteed Ukraine’s security. He went to the White House to sign the minerals deal with that mindset.

Zelenskyy has been slammed by his detractors, Trump and Republicans for prolonging the war by refusing peace. Several of his detractors, including those in the US, dismiss him because of his earlier profession as a comedian.

What about Ukrainians?

Zelenskyy won the 2019 election with a landslide of 73 per cent of the vote. His current approval rating is 63 per cent, not 4 per cent—claimed by Trump—according to a February 
poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), up from 56 per cent in May 2024. Another 
KIIS poll in the same month found that 57 per cent of Ukrainians trust Zelenskiy.

Another 
survey in February last week done by London-based polling and market research agency Survation showed that 52 per cent of Ukrainians had a strong (30 per cent) or somewhat (22 per cent) favourable opinion of Zelenskyy.

The Survation poll also showed that only 16 per cent of Ukrainians wanted Ukraine to fight, 39 per cent wanted to continue fighting but should consider negotiations if military progress stalls and another 39 per cent wanted the war to end the war at the earliest.

On the other hand, 48 per cent of Ukrainians didn’t consider the US-Russia peace talks legitimate. Ukrainians, especially troops fighting Russia, will not approve of Zelenskyy if he signs a peace deal with Russia and a minerals pact with the US without security guarantees.

Trump has blamed Zelenskyy for starting the war and dubbed him a dictator. However, 70 per cent of Americans disagree that Ukraine is more to blame for starting the war, according to a March 3-4 
Reuters/Ipsos poll with 62 per cent Republicans and 81 per cent Democrats.

Neither Trump nor Vladimir Putin want security guarantees for Ukraine.

Trump views everything from the prism of deal-making. His minerals deal with Ukraine is masked under a peace deal. Trump wants Ukraine’s minerals worth billions to repay for past aid, wants Zelenskyy to blindly and unconditionally trust that Washington is acting in Kyiv’s interests and say yes to terms the US and Russia decide.

The minerals deal is unfair to Ukraine. The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 50 per cent of Americans disagree that the US should get a share of Ukraine’s minerals with Republicans 24 per cent and Democrats 75 per cent.

Ukraine is left only with Europe, which can’t sustain supporting Ukraine forever without American assistance.

Zelenskyy is back to square one—and he has realised the blowback caused by the Oval Office clash with Trump.

A day after the US arms freeze, Zelenskyy termed the White House fiasco “regrettable” and said that Ukraine is “ready to come to the negotiating table” and “work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts”.

Replying to Vance’s complaint that he didn’t thank the US for its support, the Ukrainian president said, without naming the US vice-president, “We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things changed when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this.”

Regarding the minerals deal, Zelenskyy said that “Ukraine is ready to sign it anytime and in any convenient format” but still hoped that the agreement would be “a step towards greater security and solid security guarantees”.

Trump immediately sensed Zelenskyy’s compromising tone.

“Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than the Ukrainians,” he said in his address to Congress on the same day while quoting from a letter the president said he had received from his Ukrainian counterpart. He also said that Ukraine was ready to sign the minerals deal.

Trump also claimed to have “received strong signals” from Russia that it is ready for peace. “It’s time to stop this madness. It’s time to halt the killing. It’s time to end this senseless war.”

Putin’s so-called “Special Military Operation” never intended to occupy the whole of Ukraine but only the mineral-rich southeast and was a warning to NATO not to expand eastwards.

Both Putin and Trump have got what they wanted but not Zelenskyy.

If the Ukrainian president signs the peace deal with Putin, Ukraine will lose the territories captured by Russia. If he signs the minerals deal with Trump, Ukraine’s vast resources will be used by the US. In both scenarios, Ukraine will not have security guarantees. If Zelenskyy doesn’t sign the deals, he will prolong the war.

That’s Zelenskyy’s dilemma.

The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.



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