US Sutra | Marco Rubio as Trump’s Secretary of State: Impact on India – Firstpost

In the flurry of executive orders, actions, and appointments rapidly unfolding on Donald J Trump’s return to power, one of the most important for India and, indeed, for the rest of the world, is the confirmation of Marco Rubio as America’s new Secretary of State. This position, the equivalent of India’s External Affairs Minister, is of critical importance in shaping and executing US foreign policy.

Traditionally, but especially during Democratic party presidencies, the US Department of State has been perceived as critical of, if not openly, against India. This is quite different, if not opposed, to the Department of Defense or the US Defense Ministry, which has usually advocated security closer ties to India. On the Indian side too, the defence establishment has tended to trust the US much more than China. In Trump’s second presidential term, the different arms and departments of the US government are expected to have much greater coherence and focus than earlier, when they were often at sixes and sevens.

This change was clearly signalled in Rubio’s acceptance speech this morning. He said that US foreign policy would be governed strictly by US self-interests. And, furthermore, the three principles that would determine US interests as outlined by President Trump were: 1) Does it make the US stronger? 2) Does it make it more secure? And 3) Does it add to its prosperity? Of course, how these three principles are to be operationalised and deployed on the ground is another matter. Yet, they should serve as a clear wake up call to India and its mandarins. One of the foremost of whom, Dr S Jaishankar, India’s External Affairs Minister, was in the front row inside the Capitol rotunda during Trump’s swearing in on January 20.

But let’s make no mistake: Marco Rubio as Secretary of State under President Trump marks a pivotal shift in US foreign policy, with implications that extend across global relations, domestic politics, and international security. Rubio, known for his hawkish foreign policy views and his Cuban-American heritage, brings a unique perspective to the role, potentially reshaping America’s diplomatic stance in several key areas.

Let’s begin with Rubio’s Latin America connection. Rubio’s background as the son of Cuban immigrants has long influenced his policy focus on Latin America, particularly Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. His appointment suggests a renewed emphasis on US involvement, and dominance, in the region. Rubio has been a vehement critic of Cuba’s communist regime, advocating for stringent sanctions and opposing any normalization of relations. His stance could lead to a more aggressive policy towards Cuba, reversing some of the diplomatic openings made by previous administrations.

But Cuba or Venezuela, where Rubio has supported opposition movements and economic sanctions against the Nicolás Maduro Moros government, are less important than Mexico, America’s immediate southern neighbour. While US policy might intensify efforts to undermine leftist governments in Latin America, Rubio’s focus will be on controlling illegal immigration and criminal cartels entering the US through Mexico. Trump’s renaming of the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America is more cosmetic than really significant.

On the other hand, the announced takeover by the US of the Panama Canal, more by persuasion than force, will probably be Rubio’s top priority. In America’s own backyard, his brief will be to counterbalance the influence of China and Russia and further US strategic interests.

Far more important to India is Rubio’s approach to China. As a long-standing critic of China, Rubio’s role as Secretary of State could herald a more confrontational US approach towards Beijing. His past actions, like advocating sanctions against Chinese companies and highlighting concerns over Chinese espionage via tech platforms, suggest a continuation or even an escalation of the trade and technological wars initiated under the previous Trump administration. Rubio’s hawkishness on China might lead to stricter policies on technology transfers, investment scrutiny, and a push for more robust alliances with countries wary of Chinese expansionism. This could potentially strain US-China relations further but might also solidify alliances like the Quad (US, Japan, Australia, and India) aimed at countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. This may well be India’s chance to take relations with US to a new level.

Similarly, Rubio’s unwavering support for Israel and his criticism of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy suggest that under his stewardship, US policy might lean towards stronger military and diplomatic backing for Israel, especially in light of ongoing conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. Rubio’s statements, including his desire for Israel to “destroy every element of Hamas,” indicate a policy less inclined towards peace negotiations and more towards supporting Israel’s security measures.

Rubio’s views on Russia have shown a pragmatic shift, aligning more with Trump’s recent attitudes towards the conflict in Ukraine. Previously a staunch supporter of Ukraine, Rubio has suggested a negotiated settlement over continued military engagement, which might align US policy with a less interventionist approach in Eastern Europe. This could mean a focus on diplomacy to de-escalate tensions rather than military support, although Rubio’s history of advocating for NATO’s strength might continue to support the alliance, albeit with a focus on burden-sharing among members.

Rubio’s appointment might also signal a broader shift in how US diplomacy is conducted. His experience and visibility in international relations, coupled with his media presence, could lead to a more assertive diplomatic tone. Internationally, Rubio’s appointment might be viewed with caution, even disappointment, by Latin American countries. Domestically, Rubio’s rise will help consolidate Latino support for the Republican Party, given his historic appointment as the first Latino Secretary of State, potentially influencing the political landscape in states like Florida during future elections.

Rubio, we must not forget, is ambitious, having himself run for president during the primaries. It is in India’s interests to build close and lasting ties with him. His appointment is, undoubtedly, a great opportunity for India to consolidate ties with the United States.

The writer is an author and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.