What Iran withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty could mean for India – Firstpost

West Asia is at it again. Lighting matchsticks near oil drums. However, this time the fuel isn’t being lit by a rocket but by a simple signature and paperwork. A potential withdrawal. Following recent military escalation between Israel and Iran, the Internet is filled with predictions of doom, with social media pages claiming the odds of a nuclear war in 2025 are now one in six, with even the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute claiming that the world is on the cusp of a nuclear arms race and very possibly actual detonation.

Iran, cornered and humiliated, is now indicating that it might be folding the page on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a decades-old ‘insurance policy’ for the world when it first woke up to the devastating consequences of nuclear technology, intended to stem the spread of the same.

No fireworks or explosions, just soft whispers in the Iranian Parliament that are beginning to sound very intentional.

However, this isn’t just Tehran turning its back on diplomacy but, in all probability, the beginning of a long and deliberate undoing of restraint – the kind of which kept oil shipping lanes safe and power balances somewhat intact.

So what might this mean for us, Indians?

India has always been the careful dancer in a crowded room – one tied to Iran by centuries of cultural exchange, a mutually symbiotic oil dependence relationship, while also a friendly partner to the United States, whose rules of engagement quite obviously come with fine print and keen watchful eyes.

Now if Iran pulls out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, India will be watching a friend turn into an unpredictable wildcard.

For India, the cost will be measured in diplomacy, Indian rupees and the rising heat in an already volatile region and tense atmosphere.

Chabahar Port

Chabahar Port, once India’s favourite geopolitical trump card to skirt Pakistan and reach Central Asia, is now trembling in the long shadow cast by China’s Belt and Road and, of course, the collective Western discomfort.

If Iran goes rogue, this trump card might well be rendered useless or, worse, be useful to other powers playing a scarier and louder game.

The Oil Equation

In the good old days when sanctions were bearable, India bought Iranian oil by the barrel. Deals made in Indian rupees, special discounted prices, shipping conveniences, etc. That chapter had to close under US pressure, unfortunately, but what now?

If Iran truly embraces full isolation, prices won’t just be rising – they will writhe. Fuel bills, freight fares, rates of vegetables and other essential commodities will rise dramatically as the transport costs goes up. It’s not going to destroy us in any way, but effects will be felt.

Every auto rickshaw driver, every delivery truck, every common man will pay. For India, which still imports over 80 per cent of its oil, the financial tremors will be very uncomfortable.

The Strategic Tightrope of Diplomacy

While India has been walking this tightrope for a while now, India’s delicate relationship with Iran seems to be becoming more and more fragile and simultaneously crucial.

Our Western allies, already queasy about Iran’s nuclear ambiguity, will now expect India to align more clearly with the West. However, a complete pivot at this point risks antagonising Tehran at a time when they are being aggressively courted by China with infrastructure, defence and strategic partnerships.

Also, one has to keep in mind that India isn’t just watching this as a peninsular nation but also through the eyes of 8 million Indians living in the Gulf.

Any escalation involving Iran – whether triggered by sanctions, US pressure or Israeli responses – could make the region plain, outright dangerous, leading to an enormous humanitarian crisis. We’ve seen it before, in Kuwait, Yemen and Lebanon. However, this time the nuclear anxiety cloud hangs heavy over us.

India by itself is not a signatory to the NPT – a fact that has been diplomatically manoeuvred since the landmark 2008 US-India civil nuclear deal. Iran’s potential withdrawal reopens uncomfortable global conversations about who gets to hold nuclear weapons and why.

India’s well-earned status as a “responsible nuclear power” could come under increased scrutiny, while Tehran’s moves might encourage other powers in the region, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to consider nuclear options of their own.

The NPT’s erosion might well trigger an arms race not just in West Asia but all over the world, in a domino effect.

For India, which has historically advocated for global disarmament even while maintaining a credible deterrence, this would be a major strategic setback. New Delhi must now be prepared for volatility in oil markets – hedge better, diversify oil supply chains and insulate the economy in whichever way possible.

Whether India engages Iran quietly but assertively will be a decision that needs to be taken. Possibly reinforcing the strategic importance of Chabahar and signalling that regional restraint is still valued.

India is also in a position to work behind the scenes with Moscow and Washington to prevent the complete erosion of diplomatic options. The NPT may not be the fairest and most perfect treaty ever signed, but it is still one of the strongest threads keeping the global nuclear order intact. An order that must be protected at all costs.

The treaty may burn in the heart of West Asia, but the smoke will drift in every direction. India, as always, must try to breathe both air and fire without letting either consume its lungs.

As a regional power with global ambitions, India cannot afford to simply sit and watch. Sometimes, the loudest warnings come from paper being torn in the quietest of rooms.

The author is a freelance journalist and features writer based out of Delhi. Her main areas of focus are politics, social issues, climate change and lifestyle-related topics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.