Why India should remain a step ahead of Trump – Firstpost

If there was an Oscar for the best inauguration for a president, the Donald Trump team would probably win it. It had a large dose of glamour in Melania Trump, big money in Elon Musk, the best of American swagger in Trump himself, and sundry villains in the audience who would like a Trump headstone better than anything else. But at its heart, it was a showpiece of American power. In some ways, it was also an indicator of Chinese power, as TikTok was first banned and revived in just about 24 hours. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

First, the base notes of the triumphal song, which means discerning the reality from the pomp and show and what it means for us. It is now apparent that nearly every Trump appointee is a diehard anti-China high priest or priestess. That’s not just Marco Rubio, who warned of the Chinese threat at his five-hour hearing in no uncertain terms, besides being twice sanctioned by China. It includes the Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, who wants a ‘warrior’ ethos for his army; he has always held the Chinese Communist Party as the biggest threat.

Notably, this group also includes Secretary of the Interior Kristi Noem, who had introduced legislation in her state of South Dakota to ban TikTok in 2022 on state-owned devices, and the Treasury Secretary, who wants tariffs on China. Putting all that in one basket, it seems like it’s going to be a ‘Bury China’ position all through the next 5 years. But not so fast. The realities were already at play, as even National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who had warned a month ago of a ‘
Nazi-era style’ military buildup by China, was backfooting on the TikTok ‘ban’, saying he did not rule out continued Chinese ownership, even as his president signed an executive order giving it another 75 days, this despite the sanction of the Supreme Court and bipartisan support in Congress.

Some 170 million US users matter, and they seem to have flatly refused to migrate to Meta. It’s also not a signal that Trump wants to give out yet. The Financial Times podcast (January 22) observed that markets picked up after no presidential orders emerged targeting China. Besides, the Chinese leader’s
call came on the very day of the Supreme Court judgement, where Trump seems to have
said the two would “do everything possible to make the world more peaceful and safe”. In other words, he dodged a possible trap set for him by the previous administration.

The reality on the ground

Either way, it’s a hard dose of reality for India. That China is the US’s third-largest trade partner ($575 billion) is well known, as is also that some
70,000 US companies operate in China. Look harder at his main donors. Elon Musk, has his fortune tied to that of China. Tesla, once given low-interest loans and laws changed for its entry, according to a
New York Times report, is now suffering from its own success. Chinese EVs are now the hottest thing on the market. Another donor, Bigelow Aerospace, watched in dismay as China pulled ahead in
key space technology.

Others, like British American Tobacco, for instance, have a major presence in China, as does Pratt Industries. Their ideal situation is to keep Beijing prosperous but ‘tamed’. Those plans certainly don’t include allowing economic giant Taiwan to be gobbled up by China. Beijing is already ahead of the US in terms of PPP (purchasing power parity) according to the IMF. War would be preferable, but by proxy. In other words, beef up Taiwan, but don’t fight on the ground. In this game, another proxy would be great. New Delhi will need to dodge that skilfully.

Quad perks up

That’s not going to be easy. With the Quad—the grouping of India, the US, Australia, and Japan—meeting almost immediately after the inauguration, it sends a powerful message of intent to Beijing. The Joint Statement rather unusually notes that it will “strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion”. The December 2024 statement, on the other hand, focused more on disaster management and ‘do-goodies’ in other areas.

Beijing reacted
sharply, noting that its activities (in the East and South China seas) are completely legitimate. Expect this to be followed up with offers of weaponry, with US companies making a strong pitch for the future medium role fighter aircraft. ‘Making’ in India is less likely, so don’t expect those soon. Though a team is due to go to discuss this, it appears that it is likely to
stall. The new administration will want to know what it gets in return, in black and white.

Anti-China legislation in Congress

Expect a raft of anti-China legislation, including the passing of the BIOSECURE Act to limit US companies cooperating in the area of biotechnology. Then there is another “Countering CCP Drones Act” which bars the imports of Chinese drones (DJI). That bill, however, has strong domestic opposition from users like the Drone Advocacy Alliance, who argue that it poses no threat and that it is vital for emergencies.

Then is the Decoupling from Foreign Adversarial Battery Dependence Act, arguing that the companies making this are aligned to the CCP and are deeply connected to forced labour. The bill opposes plans to build factories in the United States. There’s more. All that needs careful scrutiny by Indian companies in terms of supplying for the US market. It’s possible. Already
seven Indian startups have entered the US defence market. A billionaire investor, Stephen Feinberg, has been appointed Deputy Secretary of Defence, while Elbridge Colby—core to the MAGA (Make America Great Again) defence vision enunciated in Project
2025—is the Under Secretary of Defence for Policy. That project envisions a major role for India.

Jaishankar has his own hedging strategy

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Jaishankar, while chatting affably with the new Secretary of State and others, is already well up on his game. On January 18, he talked about preparing for “expressions of China’s growing capabilities” while noting that “India’s approach can be summed up in terms of the three mutuals, ie, mutual respect, mutual sensitivity, and mutual interests. Bilateral ties can also benefit from a greater realisation that what is at stake is actually the larger prospects of both nations and, in fact, even of the global order”.

That’s as broad a hint as it can get. The Chinese
spokesperson, in his turn, reacted affably, though rather unfortunately noting the “Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence” (which has been virtually trashed by China) in broader remarks calling for viewing the relationship from ‘strategic heights’.

In sum, it’s a delicate balancing act. While optimism can point to the number of pro-India policy makers within the administration, sceptics will point to the fact that US strategy has always been underpinned by complete and absolute self-interest, which should ideally be the marking feature of any state aspiring to greatness. India’s aspirations are definitely in that direction, but sometimes hindered by a lack of bureaucratic unity in approach. That needs to change, and quickly. That means utilising the National Security Council to the fullest extent, not just the Secretariat, to gain policy agility. Trump has to be able to see that New Delhi can be as unpredictable as himself, if a whole lot politer.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.