Will it trigger arms race in space? – Firstpost

Daniel Gold, an Israeli engineer and military leader, was head of the Israeli Directorate of Defence Research & Development (DDR&D) between 2003 and 2010 and was instrumental in developing Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system, along with few other scientists. Possibly, it was he who had suggested the name Iron Dome. During the first hundred days of Trump 2.0, it appeared that the US President was keen to repeat the same model for developing a new missile defence system for the US. In January 2025, he announced that the US would develop an American Iron Dome. In this connection, on January 28, 2025 he signed an executive order directing the Pentagon to develop a comprehensive missile defence system. The executive order called the system ‘Iron Dome for America’.

In February 2025, the US Missile Defence Agency hosted an Industry Day to explore how the industry can contribute to this project. Subsequently, on 24 February an advisory was sent to defence contractors, the programme was found as ‘Golden Dome for America’. Possibly, this change in name could have happened since the name ‘Iron Dome’ is a registered trademark owned by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defence Systems. Also, the US version is designed to operate on a much larger scale, protecting the entire US territory (there is a proposal to also give the cover to Canada) from advanced missile threats.

It is envisioned that the existing missile defence systems would have limitations since with time, new missile technologies are getting developed and in future the missile threats are expected to grow in scale and sophistication. There is a concern that China and Russia are actively designing missile systems to exploit gaps in the US defences. Beijing’s success with the hypersonic missile technology is known. They have also established a near-space command to deal with various aspects of hypersonic technology.

Moscow is modernising its intercontinental-range missile systems and developing advanced precision strike missiles. They are using drones as an important tool in their ongoing military campaign in the Ukraine theatre.  Russian hypersonic weapons are now battle tested systems since they have used hypersonic missiles like Kinzhal on targets in Ukraine.

It is obvious that Trump has taken inspiration from Israel’s Iron Dome which has proved its worthiness in recent times against missiles launched from Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. However, systems like Iron Dome have limited expanse, it needs to be noted that the geographic size of the US is about 448 times bigger than Israel. With regard to potential missile threats against Israel, they are unlikely to originate from multiple directions, and the incoming missiles are generally not expected to feature state-of-the-art technology.

Trump has mentioned that he is keen to have a system that would consist of next-generation technologies across land, sea and space, including space-based sensors and interceptors. The idea is to develop a system that is capable of intercepting missiles launched from any part of the world, or launched from space, say by using systems like fractional orbital bombardment systems (FOBS). This proposed Golden Dome is also expected to stop missiles that are moving towards the target with the hypersonic speeds (more than five times the speed of sound).

The Trump administration has estimated the total cost of the entire system to be approximately around $175 billion. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that deploying space-based interceptors to counter a limited number of intercontinental ballistic missiles would cost between $161 billion and $542 billion over a period of 20-years.

This system is expected to create a network of satellites, for the purposes of detect, tracking and potentially intercept incoming missiles. Possibly, that is why the head of the US Space Force is handling this project.

In fact, President Trump is reviving an idea that was proposed more than four decades ago by a former US President. In the 1980s, the then-President Ronald Reagan had conceptualised a missile defence architecture to guard against any nuclear attacks. On March 23, 1983, in a nationally televised address, he had announced the need for pioneering research into a national defence system that could render nuclear weapons obsolete. This proposal became famously known as the Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI).

At its core, the SDI programme aimed to develop a space-based missile defence system capable of protecting the US from a large-scale nuclear attack. While SDI spurred the development of various advanced technologies, the exact vision conceptualized by Reagan never fully materialised. During the last four decades the US has developed a range of missile defence systems like the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defence System, Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD), ground-based interceptors, air defence systems, and various short-range and aerial anti-ballistic missile systems.

It is important to mention that the Golden Dome is not directly an upgrade of the existing THAAD missile system. THAAD is a terrestrial-based missile defence system, while the Golden Dome is a broader, more comprehensive space-based system. In essence, It could be said that the Golden Dome builds upon existing missile defence systems like THAAD but also expands its capabilities to include space-based surveillance and interception, making it a more comprehensive and advanced system.

What President Trump has conceptualised is a significant idea from the standpoint of US national security. However, the question remains: is it technologically feasible? While a definitive answer is difficult, it can be broadly argued that, given the existing technological capabilities of the US, turning such a concept into reality is not entirely impossible.

The real challenges are likely to arise from financial and political considerations. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of this initiative is the risk that it could trigger an arms race in space, as states may begin deploying weapons in the space. This would increase the likelihood of heightened military competition among major powers. Russia, North Korea, and China have already expressed strong opposition to this Golden Dome initiative.

The author is Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, New Delhi. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.