A new theatre of critical geopolitics – Firstpost

Trump 2.0 marks a paradigm shift in the geopolitical restructuring. The symptoms of the reset are evidenced by the list of priorities which include Greenland, Canada, energy autonomy, Panama Canal, new tariff, quitting the Paris Climate Pact, strict immigration regulations, America First policy, etc. The first three in the list direct his attention to the Arctic Ocean or the North Pole Arctic Circle. Its geography constitutes the Earth’s northernmost polar region where the sun does not set in summer and does not rise in winter. Its unique topography was not conceived as the eye of a new geopolitical storm. Its ocean-bed houses rare earth deposits, hydrocarbon, minerals, graphite, uranium, etc. The frozen freshwater deposits, rich biodiversity, wildlife, fish and vast unclaimed territories develop critical geopolitics among global superpowers, especially the US, Russia and China.

The littoral states of the Arctic Ocean are Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, the Russian Federation, and the United States. The Arctic Council is an inter-governmental body that encourages cooperation and coordination on ecology, environmental protection, sustainability, ocean health, climate change, and issues of Arctic inhabitants, including the indigenous people. All the above eight states are its member states and signed the Ottawa Declaration on 19 September 1996. Russia’s coastline share in the Arctic Ocean is approximately 53 per cent. Its stakeholdership is higher than that of other littoral states.

Climate change has made the Arctic Ocean a hotspot of geostrategic advantage, alternate, comparatively shorter, cost-effective and convenient transport routes, natural resources and vast unclaimed territories, and new competition and geopolitical rivalry. Global warming and climate crisis have exacerbated the environmental conditions in the Arctic Ocean. The frozen water has begun to melt. It clears the way for a transport route easing traffic and circuitous global supply chain structures.

The Suez and Panama chokepoints as busy transit routes with different determinants impacting the nature and speed of transport will experience less congestion. The emerging possibilities in the Arctic Ocean space have generated competing interests among the rival global powers—Russia, the US and China. Therefore, the great power competition unfolds in the Arctic Region. The low-tension area has gradually become a centre of geopolitical gravity.

Russia’s Arctic hegemony

Russian interest in the Arctic Ocean comes from its geographic contiguity. It exercised its leverage in the North Polar region for a considerably long time. The number of Russian inhabitants living in the region is approximately two million. Its largest and most populous city, Murmansk, comes in the Arctic Circle. The Russians in the region are naturally habituated to the harsh climatic conditions. This gives Russia a great edge over its rivals. In the post-Cold War thawing of international relations, the Arctic Circle became a cool zone of peace, science diplomacy and cooperation.

Mikhail Gorbachev’s 1987 Murmansk speech declaring the Arctic ‘zone of peace’ underlined a narrative of Arctic exceptionalism and a non-kinetic engagement in the interest of science and research. The divergence from this line of argument came subsequently from Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin. Medvedev’s modernisation and multilateral engagements to improve the Russian economy initiated the Partnership for Modernisation in 2010 with the European Union to drill hydrocarbon from the Arctic bed. He sought cooperation from Canada and Nordic states for Arctic infrastructure, energy, sustainable development, economic modernisation, international law and Arctic collaborations. It marked a shift from Arctic exceptionalism to compartmentalisation. Arctic modernisation under Medvedev was the euphemism for militarisation. However, it was incremental under the pretext of cooperation and collaboration, not confrontation. He disapproved the NATO’s activities in the Far North but did not derail from the common and strategic vocabulary of convergence of interests.

Putin’s aggressive nationalist policy unearthed the Russian silent preparation for Arctic dominance. Russian security became non-negotiable. His 2013 Arctic Strategy indicated Russian security and surveillance infrastructures, military bases, aviation patrol and combat readiness in the Arctic. The Russia-Ukraine confrontation in 2014 complicated the Russia-NATO cooperation in the Arctic. Both intensified their Military activities there. The 2015 amendments to the Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation increased the Russian naval capacity, troop deployment and strategic stability. Russian unilateralism in the Arctic space was increasingly seen. Therefore, the conflict became more defined and unresolvable.

Russia carries out the economic, military and scientific activities in the Arctic Ocean. Since 2014, Putin’s attention to the Arctic has been intense and determined. Climate change opens up a range of opportunities for Russia. Putin has enhanced its military and security infrastructures. Russia’s northern border reportedly houses 475 military sites and several information and telecommunication infrastructures. Its Borei-class and Delta-IV class submarines are designed to break the dense and deep Arctic ice. The nuclear-powered Tula ballistic missile submarine navigates in the ice-rich zones. This indicates its polar preparedness to address any eventuality.

Russia’s economic interest includes the hydrocarbon resources and the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for shipment purposes on the Arctic waters. The NSR connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Arctic Ocean. It joins the Kara Strait with the Bering Strait. It is the shortest shipping route that joins Asia with Europe. It saves fuel and emissions in the transhipment process. If this sea route reopens, at least in the Summer, it will give Russia the required leverage in the supply chain structuralism and an easy connectivity shipway for exporting its oil and gas to the energy-dependent countries in Asia.

Russia’s investment in understanding ocean behaviour through scientific research aids significantly in its growing ambition to emerge as a big player in the great game of Arctic geopolitics. Therefore, Russia will play a decisive role in the Arctic future.

America’s Arctic competition

The US’ Alaska shares a coastline with the Arctic Ocean. Washington also operates through the NATO. It too has a strong presence to compete with the Russian hegemony in the Arctic polar region. It has air bases and a space base and carries out military exercises. Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson and Eielson Air Force Base are located in Alaska. Pituffik Space Base is in Greenland. Clear Space Force Station, Fort Wainwright, and Fort Greely are some of the US’s military assets.

During the Cold War, the Arctic acquired major attention because it is a potential pathway to the US. Putin understands the US’s Achilles Heels through the Arctic. He may weaponise the Arctic to impose checkmate on the US. The geographic advantage no longer remains a factor in the US’s security calculus. The increasing Russian presence and activity in the Arctic is a cause of great concern for the US. Therefore, Trump was unequivocal in outlining the imperative of annexing Canada and Greenland. Greenland is under Denmark’s control. Canada and Greenland can give the US the much-needed deterrence capacity. Putin’s resolve to fortify its presence in the Arctic engenders apprehension in the US. Trump just ventilates it in his comments on Canada and Greenland.

The possible Russia-led world order connecting countries through the Northern Sea route and supplying energy will impact the US’s dominance significantly. Putin’s Russia since 2014 is very different from the Gorbachev’s. The scope of cooperation and collaboration is quite thin. This is illustrated through Russian aggression on Ukraine in 2014 and its ongoing unending war with Ukraine at present. The US’s strong presence in the Arctic Ocean is established through its leadership of NATO.

Out of eight Arctic littoral countries, seven are affiliated with the NATO security framework. This strengthened the US’ grip on the region. Russian unilateralism or brinkmanship does not seem to go undetected and undeterred. Trump’s US first policy will clear several geopolitical and geostrategic clutters in its immediate geographic area of influence.

China’s Arctic Ambition

Apart from Russia and the US, China’s Arctic ambition is quite pronounced in its publication of a white paper in 2018. The white paper illustrates its Arctic strategy and extension of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructural coverage to the Arctic Ocean. Its partnership with Russia emboldens its resolve to carve a polar silk route and join the Arctic Council for commercial and research ventures. The research endeavours facilitate its scope for commercial and connectivity ambitions. It is not a permanent member of the Arctic Council and joined in the capacity of an observer state in 2013.

China is a manufacturing nation and exports its production worldwide. It depends on the marine shipping route. The Malacca choke point may affect its supply chain framework in the event of conflict situations. The NSR will help significantly to conduct its export and import effectively with Europe and beyond avoiding the conventional and circuitous sea routes, piracy and chokepoint vulnerabilities.

Being an energy-dependent country, Russian crude will find an effective export to China. The NSR will link Dalian (China) to Rotterdam (Netherlands) through the Bering Sea of Russia. It has developed strong ties with the Arctic states through BRI. Its 2014 Yamal project in the Yamal Peninsula in Russia is a collaboration with the Kremlin to facilitate the polar silk route and the extraction of sea bed (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG. Ports in Arkhangelsk and Zarubino also illustrate Beijing’s Arctic aspiration. Energy, transportation and connectivity infrastructure constitute its foremost priority.

China’s slow and steady entry into the Arctic is perceived through the establishment of research stations in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago and Iceland. The infrastructure-deficit Arctic, sparse population, rich biodiversity and frozen fresh water and natural resources attract China to push its infrastructural projects. The Chinese investment in the Arctic countries, especially in Greenland, affects the US’s interest. China imports fish and frozen fresh water from Greenland. Once the transport route opens up, China will exercise its presence in a big way to extract the Arctic resources.

The China-Russia collaboration hurts the US’s interest. It may lead to geopolitical tension and subsequent military confrontation. The hot kinetic engagement will make the pristine region a battlefield. The new theatre of war and military intensification will engender climate calamity. The polar Arctic region is a least known geography. Any adventurism may prove counterproductive. But the symptoms of a conflict-stressed Arctic are perceptible. They may magnify to any inconceivable extent, where repair will be difficult.

The geographical proximity of the US and Russia to the Arctic Ocean will generate a constant political tremor in the hinterland. It may not be of much importance for Russia, but it does for the US. Therefore, the Arctic geopolitics is going to be hotter as soon as the summer comes and the water melts.

Dr Jajati K Pattnaik teaches at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Dr Chandan K Panda teaches at Rajiv Gandhi University (A Central University), Itanagar. Views expressed here are personal to the authors and do not reflect the opinions of Firstpost.