How China is damming rivers in Tibet to build ‘liquid bomb’ against India – Firstpost
Across India, groundwater is receding, and rivers are severely polluted. As much as 80 per cent of the waters of the western Rivers have already been lost to Pakistan through the Indus Water Treaty. The way things stand, we are disregarding the value of water by not giving due importance to conservation, preservation, and storage.
On the other hand, 75 years ago, China foresaw the water crisis likely to affect their country. This could well have been one of the reasons for them to annex Tibet, because that is where all the water was. China sees itself as the controller of South Asia’s mightiest rivers. It is estimated that 718 billion cubic meters (BCM) of surface water flows out of the Tibetan plateau.
Tibet
Tibet is South Asia’s rainmaker, water supplier, and water repository. It is from here that water flows in all directions and into many countries. The Tibetan Plateau has the largest perennial ice mass on the planet after the Arctic and Antarctica. Stretching 2,400 km from east to west and 1,450 km from north to south, this unique water bank is located on the world’s largest and highest plateau, with an average elevation of 4,000 meters above sea level, aptly called “the Roof of the World”. There are more than 18,000 high-altitude glaciers and 1,500 lakes in the Great Himalayas, which serve as massive storehouses of freshwater.
The main rivers flowing out of the Tibetan Plateau include the Yangtze, Yellow, Mekong, Salween, Irrawaddy, Arun, Brahmaputra, Sutlej, and Indus. The mighty Ganga’s main tributaries flow in from Tibet, including Karnali, Gandak, and Kosi.
When China annexed Tibet, little of the river waters were being consumed on the plateau itself. This meant that nearly all the water was transferred to downstream basins, including India, Nepal, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan, Vietnam, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand. Now, with the river waters increasingly being diverted for other economic activities on the plateau and with China pursuing inter-river and inter-basin transfer projects, the transboundary implications of China’s hold over Tibet are becoming worrisome.
Control over Water
China is the greatest dam builder in the world. Over the last 7-8 decades, China has constructed more than 87,000 dams. Mao Zedong approved and supported the idea of large-scale damming of rivers. President Hu Jintao graduated as an engineer with a major in hydropower. In 1964, he served as Tibet’s martial law administrator. He thus fused two key elements, Water and Tibet. Premier Wen Jiabao, a geological engineer, had also done geological work in the Tibetan Plateau. He too focused on Tibet’s water. China considers water a sovereign resource rather than a shared resource. China does not share data about water flow and hydropower operations with lower riparian states. Chinese maintains: Not one drop of China’s water should be shared without China using it first or without making those downstream pay for it.
China has dammed every major river on the Tibetan Plateau: the Mekong, Salween, Yarlung Tsanpo, Yangtze, Yellow, Indus, Sutlej, Shweli, and Karnali. There are indications that these dams will have reservoirs to export electric energy to mainland China.
These projects are located very close to the geological fault line where the Indian Plate collides with the Eurasian Plate. An adverse natural calamity causing major damage to Tibet’s dams could lead to floods downstream. China has never officially communicated about the construction of these dams. A lack of transparency about dam building on the Tibetan Rivers raises questions about the risk and impact on river systems that support millions.
The Indian Context
In the Indian context, there are two main river systems that draw their waters from Tibet, the Indus River System, and the Brahmaputra River System.
The Indus River originates from Mt. Kailash/Lake Mapam, enters India through Ladakh, and flows into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The Sutlej River, which is the longest tributary of the Indus River System, also originates at Mt Kailash/Lake Mansarovar. The Sutlej enters India through the state of Himachal Pradesh.
The Yarlung Tsanpo (Brahmaputra) also originates from Mount Kailash. It flows eastward in Tibet at an average altitude of more than 4,000 meters for over 1,650 km. Among the world’s major streams, this is the highest river and one of the fastest flowing. It ranks as the fourth-largest river in the world by discharge. The Brahmaputra is by far the most important river flowing from China into any other country in terms of the sheer volume. The average annual transboundary flows into India of the Brahmaputra (165.4 BCM) are greater than the combined cross-border flows of the Mekong and Salween. The Brahmaputra enters India at Korbo on the McMahon Line as the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh.
The Siang/Dihang flows about 400 kilometres through a picturesque canyon before it meets with the Dibang River and the Lohit River in the plains of Assam at Kobo, south of Sadiya town. It is from this point, which is the confluence of three rivers, that the river assumes the name Brahmaputra. The river traverses another 650 km before entering Bangladesh.
The Brahmaputra system contains more than 30 per cent of the country’s water resources. It also has about 40 per cent of India’s total hydropower potential (31,012 MW), although only 3 per cent of the potential has been tapped so far.
The Mega Dam
On 25 December 2024, China’s state-run Xinhua news agency reported about the plan for the construction of a hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which will be the world’s biggest hydropower dam on the eastern rim of the ecologically fragile Tibetan plateau. After flowing due east from its origin in Kailash Mansarovar, the Yarlung Tsangpo takes an abrupt south turn towards India, cutting through a very narrow and deep gorge between Namcha Barwa Peak (altitude 25445 ft) and Gyala Pheri Peak (altitude 23460 ft).
Here the river forms the steepest and longest canyon in the world. China plans to dam the river near the Great Bend in the Pemako area. The Great Bend was chosen because of the steep descent of the Yarlung Tsangpo, a crucial factor for a hydroelectric dam. It will be the largest dam in human history. It is not clear if the dam project is merely a run-of-the-river hydropower project and/or part of the South-North water diversion project.
But when the walls of the gorge are 5,000 meters and above, it is hard to imagine the amount of water that will get harnessed in the catchment of the dam. This super hydropower station will be constructed in Medog, on the Great Bend, 30 km from the Indian border. The dam will generate 38 gigawatts of power, or more than twice the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam. Another report states it as a 60,000 MW project that will produce electricity three times the capacity of the world’s largest hydroelectric facility, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in central China.
Effect on India
A gigantic hydropower project will undoubtedly have an effect on the quantity of water flow in the Brahmaputra, especially if it can be controlled. It is also a fact that the Siang is not the only water supplier to the Assam plains; the Brahmaputra receives most of its water supply from massive rains in the catchment areas of its tributaries, mainly from the Lohit and Subansari rivers. However, the average is calculated by including the monsoon flows. What happens in the lean season? Fluvial ecosystems depend on perennial water sources. If there is no water flow from Siang, are we looking at an ecological disaster?
Similar to the situation painted above but on a larger scale, the untimely release of Brahmaputra waters by China could unleash havoc in Assam. The Brahmaputra’s channel is the widest water channel in India, extending more than 10 km at certain places. Geographically, Arunachal Pradesh rests on the Brahmaputra towards the south. One can cross over from Assam to Arunachal Pradesh only over existing bridges. What if the sudden release of water increases the Brahmaputra water channel to 15-20 km? Such an eventuality would be disastrous for India.
There is no doubt that the project is also dangerous from an environmental point of view. Deforestation will lead to rapid soil erosion and landslides. The Brahmaputra gathers extremely rich silt, which provides essential nutrients for the soil and farming downstream. High silt loads are essential to maintaining the agricultural soil fertility and marine life downstream. It is the quality and not only the quantity that is in question.
However, the concern is not only for the damming of rivers; it is also for water diversions, part of the South-North Diversion Project. Will India be greatly deprived of water in case the waters of Tibet are diverted?
The Himalayan region is earthquake-prone. Other dams apart, the 38-gigawatt dam at the Great Bend will be huge. If an earthquake strikes and waters of the dam are released, it is obvious who will bear the brunt.
Examples of Deliberate Flooding
At 1:30 am on August 1, 2000, a 50-ft-high wall of water tore from Pari Chu into the Sutlej River from Khab on the border of Himachal Pradesh and Tibet. The mountain gorges of Kinnaur, Shimla, and Mandi districts in Himachal Pradesh washed away everything that came in its path. By 05:15 am, the water reached the Nathpa Jhakri Project. Within a short time, the level of the river Sutlej rose by 15 meters. More than 100 persons lost their lives, 120 km of the strategic old India-Tibet Highway was washed away, and 98 bridges of various sizes and shapes were destroyed.
Again in 2004, a lake began to form in the Pari Chu, threatening to cause floods in India’s Sutlej valley. While China remained cooperative and shared upstream data with India this time, there was speculation that China deliberately created a ‘liquid bomb’, an artificial lake, to be unleashed at will to potentially devastate downstream areas. This possibility got credence as China rejected a request by India to send scientists and engineers to the site.
The Brahmaputra, on 1 March 2012, ran completely dry at a place called Pasighat in Arunachal Pradesh. This was unprecedented. After a few hours, the Brahmaputra began filling up with high columns of onrushing water that inundated Pasighat town. This incident raises the possibility of blocking off water at upper reaches first and its sudden release after that.
In another case, on 11 June 2004, the Siang River rose by an unprecedented 100-120 ft and devastated four districts of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. More than 26 persons lost their lives while three strategic bridges were swept away by the raging river waters. The official estimate of the loss was around Rs 140 crore.
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) had credible evidence that the Chinese caused these flash floods. Satellite images showed massive water bodies or lakes upstream in Sutlej and Siang River basins before the flash floods took place. These lakes disappeared soon after the disaster struck Indian territory.
In 2017, the Siang River turned muddy and blackened. With up to ten inches of sediment accumulated on some stretches of the riverbed, the water became unfit for human consumption.
These sudden releases of water were in all likelihood intentional and not an act of God. India is a downstream country and thus vulnerable to an upper riparian tinkering with dam waters. Such releases of water in a war-like situation could have major military implications. Since China has effectively dammed every river that flows into India, it can use water as a weapon of war by controlling releases as part of a military strategy. This water narrative sows the seed of distrust among neighbours.
Water, too much or too little, can create crisis situations. If employed as part of a military strategy, it can have unimaginable repercussions.
Major General VK Singh, VSM (Retd) was commissioned into The Scinde Horse in December 1983. He is an alumnus of St Columba’s School, and St Stephens College. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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