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How Delhi’s small investment can help India keep Islamabad off balance – Firstpost

How Delhi’s small investment can help India keep Islamabad off balance – Firstpost



By engaging the Taliban cautiously—without formal recognition—India ensures that its long-term strategic goals are not derailed by short-term challenges

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India’s Afghanistan engagement illustrates a new facet of Indian foreign policy, a delicate balance on a tightrope that prioritises national interest over idealism.

While India has long championed democracy, gender equality, and human rights on the global stage, its approach to Afghanistan underscores a calculated reset when faced with geopolitical realities. The rugged terrain of Afghan politics, much like its mountains, is fraught with challenges but also offers opportunities to secure India’s strategic objectives.

Shared Stakes with Washington

There is an India-US alignment in Afghanistan; both want to prevent the threats they faced from Taliban 1.0. For Washington, this is a battle scarred by the memories of 9/11. For India, the stakes are equally high, with the threat of Afghan soil being the launch pad for terror into India. It is this that India seeks to prevent and neutralise through engagement with Afghanistan to the extent that it can moderate its behaviour.

Additionally, Afghanistan still holds Americans as hostages. Trump will not look kindly at that standoff; weapons could well soon be back in use over Afghanistan.

Cracks Beneath the Kabul Surface

In Afghanistan, India, like many other foreign powers, has an opportunity to develop and fish in troubled waters. That is how it can preempt security threats.

Despite its authoritarian facade, the Taliban regime is rife with internal divisions, offering India both challenges and opportunities. Power struggles between the Kandahar faction, led by Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, and the Kabul-based administrators, including the influential Haqqani network, are becoming increasingly visible. A recent public critique by Sirajuddin Haqqani of Kandahar’s monopolisation of decision-making is a case in point. That led to a suicide bombing killing the Kabul-based supreme leader’s close relative and power broker. It was seen as a warning shot from Kandhar.

Backing the winners will take skill and time. India outreach buys that time. While Afghanistan has been a graveyard of empires, its own real weakness is its tribal feud, which often allows foreigners to back factions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, an Afghanistan mired in its troubles and possible conflict has historically been good for India’s security stability. It will also force Afghanistan to be more aggressive on Pakistan to gain ground in internal politics.

Pressuring Pakistan

Afghanistan also presents India with a unique lever to apply pressure on Pakistan. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan has many fathers, and that exacerbated Pakistan’s internal security woes. The TTP’s growing strength and its attacks on Pakistan’s military infrastructure expose Islamabad’s vulnerabilities. It is also particularly brutal and exacts a high number of casualties, poetic justice for India when seen from afar. India, with its burgeoning soft power through provisioning the Afghan cricket team and offering a little free grain to the Afghans, capitalises on this dynamic. For very little investment, India can keep Islamabad off balance.

Complexity and Opportunity

India’s approach to Afghanistan is akin to navigating a turbulent river, where the waters are murky but the destination is clear. The region’s geopolitical complexities require a careful calibration of policies that balance pragmatism with moral constraints. By engaging the Taliban cautiously—without formal recognition—India ensures that its long-term strategic goals are not derailed by short-term challenges.

In the near future, a lot of India’s Afghanistan policy will be behind the veil. It will need careful execution and a lot of free spending. In Afghanistan, money talks; results can be geopolitical multibaggers.

Afghanistan is no longer just a theatre of war or a pawn in great power rivalries. For India, overt goodwill and covert operations offer a semblance of threat neutralisation. The collapsing economy and internal shootouts of the clannish warriors should take care of the rest.

The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.



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