How far Trump’s desire to take over Greenland can be realistic – Firstpost
President-elect Donald Trump has expressed interest in acquiring Greenland. He is considering diplomatic and economic pressure on Denmark, aiming to expand American influence and cement his legacy. In the same breath, he wants Canada to become the US’ 51st state and also threatened to gain control of the Panama Canal. The US had earlier acquired Alaska from Russia in 1867 for $7.2 million (equivalent to $157 million in 2023), and it became the 49th state in January 1959. The US annexed Hawaii in 1898, which formally became the 50th state in August 1959.
The US, including its dependencies, currently has a land area of 9,147,590 sq km. It is the third largest after Russia (16,376,870 sq km) and China (9,326,410 sq km). Canada is fourth by land area at 9,093,507 sq km but has the world’s largest water area, 891,163 sq km. Greenland, an island, is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark with an area of 2,166,086 sq km. If the US were to acquire Greenland and make Canada its 51st state, the US’ land area would increase to a phenomenal 20,407,183 sq km, exceeding Russia’s by a significant figure. Just acquiring Greenland alone would mean an area of 11,313,676 sq km. Will Canada join the US? Many Canadians want to. Will Denmark part with Greenland, which has just 56,583 people? Is the debate.
Why Trump Wants Them
President-elect Donald Trump has reiterated his desire for the US to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal, calling both critical to American national security. Asked if he would rule out using military or economic force in order to take over the autonomous Danish territory or the Canal, he responded, “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two, but I can say this: we need them for economic security.” Amid all this, his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr paid a day-long personal visit to Greenland, arriving by private jet in the capital, Nuuk.
The US-Canada boundary is the world’s longest between two countries. Trump said the US spends billions of dollars protecting Canada, and “they should be a state”, he told reporters. Trump vowed to use “economic force” when asked if he would attempt to annex Canada and called their shared border an “artificially drawn line”. Among other things, Trump suggested renaming the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America”.
Greenland’s Ground Situation and Importance
Greenland is the world’s largest island that is not a continent and is a strategically important part of the Arctic region. Greenland is also home to a large American space facility. Trump had first expressed his interest in buying Greenland from Denmark in 2019.
A 2023 survey revealed that Greenland holds 25 out of 34 minerals classified as “critical raw materials” by the European Commission. These minerals include key materials for batteries, such as graphite and lithium, as well as rare earth elements used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. But Greenland banned the extraction of oil and natural gas for environmental reasons. Even the mining sector faces huge opposition from indigenous people. Therefore Greenland’s economy is largely dependent on fishing, which makes up more than 95 percent of its exports. They get annual financial support from Denmark, which funds about half of the public budget.
Greenland is part of NATO through the membership of Denmark and has strategic significance for the US military and for its ballistic missile early-warning system, as the shortest route from Europe to North America runs via this Arctic island. Trump suggested the island is crucial to military efforts to track Chinese and Russian ships, which he said are “all over the place”. It will help protect the free world, Trump said. He wants to make Greenland a part of the United States and does not rule out using military or economic power to get a hand over the island.
Greenland has wide-ranging autonomy, but its economy is largely dependent on subsidies from Copenhagen, and it remains part of the kingdom of Denmark. The island’s capital, Nuuk, is closer to New York than the Danish capital, Copenhagen. Greenland is geographically part of the North American continent, and it’s crucial for the United States to stop any other major powers from gaining a presence on the island. China has been attempting to lease land on the island.
Trump’s push for Greenland is growing stronger after a Greenlander in a MAGA hat shared a video urging, “Buy us. Buy Greenland”, criticising Danish exploitation. The man expressed his dissatisfaction with Danish governance, claiming that Greenland’s wealth, particularly its mineral resources, is exploited by Denmark, while the island remains unable to benefit fully from its riches.
It’s “not going to happen”, said Biden Administration’s US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, dismissing Donald Trump’s idea of taking over Canada and Greenland. Blinken added, “It’s not a good idea, so let’s not waste time discussing it.” The general feeling is that Trump will resort to diplomatic or economic pressure on Denmark to acquire the world’s largest island that isn’t a continent.
Reaction on Greenland
Both Denmark and Panama have rejected any suggestion that they would give up territory. Before, Trump Jr said he was going on a “personal day trip” to talk to people and had no meetings planned with government officials. When asked about Trump Jr’s visit to Greenland, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that “Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders” and that only the local population could determine its future. She said, “Greenland is not for sale and will not be in the future”, but stressed Denmark needed close cooperation with the US, a NATO ally.
Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede has stated that the island is not for sale and, in his New Year speech, stepped up a call for independence. Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, said, “We fully recognise that Greenland has its own ambitions. If they materialise, Greenland will become independent, though hardly with an ambition to become a federal state in the United States.”
Trump’s tacit threat of military action to take Greenland triggered warnings from both Germany and France, who said that the US even helping the island distance itself from Denmark could have diplomatic ramifications.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was among the first to issue a response to Trump’s statements, which he said sparked “incomprehension” among other European Union governments that he was in contact with. Several European leaders have cautioned Donald Trump against violating the sovereignty of other NATO allies. Borders must not be moved by force, and this principle applies to every country, whether in the East or West. The French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, was more assertive when he said during an interview that it was inconceivable that the EU would allow other states to attack their sovereign borders. There is also the likelihood of huge reactions from others, especially from Russia and China.
Reactions of Canada
It’s unclear how serious Trump is about adding territory, particularly when it comes to Canada, a country of 41 million people and the second-largest nation by area in the world (including water bodies). Donald Trump had threatened Canada with a 25 per cent tariff on imports from the country, which sends 75 per cent of all goods and services exports south of the border. A threat, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said, would destroy the Canadian economy. Trudeau was then slammed within his own Cabinet for his subdued reaction, resulting in his resignation.
Forced to resign as Canada’s prime minister over his muted response to Trump’s proposal to merge Canada with the United States, Justin Trudeau finally spoke out, declaring, “Not a chance.” In his first post on X since his resignation as prime minister, Trudeau said, “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States. Workers and communities in both our countries benefit from each other’s biggest trading and security partnership.”
Issue of Panama Canal
The Panama Canal is a man-made, 82-kilometre waterway in Panama that connects the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean. It is a conduit for maritime trade between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The project was started by France in 1881 but stopped in 1889 because of a lack of investors’ confidence due to engineering problems and a high worker mortality rate. The US took over the project in 1904 and opened the canal in 1914. The US continued to control the canal till its handover to Panama in 1977. After a period of joint American-Panamanian control, Panama took full control in 1999.
A Hong Kong-based company, CK Hutchison Holdings, manages two ports at the canal’s entrances. China’s influence in the Panama Canal has only grown since 2017, when then-president Carlos Varela severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognised China, further opening the door to China’s expanded footprint in critical Canal infrastructure and laying the groundwork for alignment with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
“Giving the Panama Canal to Panama was a very big mistake,” Trump said. He added that the canal “is vital to our country” and claimed “it’s being operated by China”. He had previously accused Panama of overcharging US ships to use the waterway. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino has rejected Trump’s claims and said there is “absolutely no Chinese interference” in the canal.
To Summarise
Canada’s becoming the 51st state of the US is much more complex. A weak Trudeau and current Canadian political flux can at best be played around for rhetoric. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum rebuked Trump’s vow to rename the Gulf of Mexico. He trolled Trump, suggesting renaming North America to “Mexican America”. Sheinbaum also refuted Trump’s claim that Mexico is “run by the cartels”, stating, “In Mexico, the people are in charge,” and emphasised that they are “addressing the security problem”.
Trump’s demand of Panama is to reduce fees on the Panama Canal or return it to US control, accusing the Central American country of charging “exorbitant prices” to American shipping and naval vessels. His remarks prompted a quick rebuke from Panama’s president, who said “every square metre” of the canal and surrounding area belong to his country. Trump will be able to press concessions on tariffs. There will be pressure on Panama to reduce Chinese influence.
Donald Trump’s gambit to buy Greenland may sound ridiculous, but it’s not impossible. If Trump is determined, he could try to buy it outright if the autonomous territory declares independence from Denmark. He could seek to make it a commonwealth like Puerto Rico. Or he could even weave Greenland into a deal like the United States has with Micronesia and the Marshall Islands that gives the US military unfettered access in exchange for defence and financial assistance. Alex Gray, the National Security Council chief of staff during the first Trump administration, says, “It’s not a one-size-fits-all, and we have precedent for doing a lot of options.” Denmark’s 17th-century purchase of St Croix from France—the territory was purchased by the US as part of a 1916 treaty and is now part of the Virgin Islands.
It’s not a completely new idea. The US, decades ago, offered to buy Greenland from Denmark, a long-secret plan that was revealed in the 1990s. If the US cannot buy Greenland, it could find ways to exercise more influence on the island, even try to add more bases to snoop on nearby Russia and China. It will reorient American foreign policy toward the Western Hemisphere as China and Russia turn their eyes toward the region.
“Denmark doesn’t claim to own it,” said Scott Anderson, a former State Department lawyer and national security expert. “I am quite confident that the government of Denmark, as we’ve seen them say things, doesn’t think it has the legal authority to sell Greenland to anyone.” The US hasn’t bought territory outright since snapping up the Philippines from Spain at the end of the 19th century. And international law has made it difficult, if not outright illegal, to buy, sell, or steal territory.
Greenland is about 50 times the size of Denmark. It is not easy for Copenhagen to defend it. If Greenland decides to become independent, the US could find a way to exercise more control over the island. The US has deals like that, called Compacts of Free Association (COFA), with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau in the western Pacific islands. Such a deal would give the US exclusive military access and the right to determine which other nations can base their troops in Greenland. This would keep the Chinese away, and the US will become as big an Arctic power as Russia.
Even Trump’s allies acknowledge that a negotiation for Greenland would be tricky because of the huge economic implications. Greenland has billions worth of unexplored minerals and hydrocarbons buried underneath its melting Arctic ice sheets. Also, Denmark, being part of NATO, is protected by the mutual defence pact provided by Article 5. While the self-governing island is not in the EU, it is still classified as an “overseas territory associated with the EU”. This implies that in the event of military action against Greenland, the EU’s mutual assistance clause would be triggered, which would oblige all member states to offer aid.
Essentially, it will be a large real estate deal. Denmark is having to spend almost $700 million maintaining Greenland. As the “climate gets warmer”, the Arctic trade route could cut US dependence on the Panama Canal. Greenland is a highway from the Arctic all the way to North America and to the United States.
Denmark is conscious of Chinese coercion to exploit the island. It will be more realistic for Trump to rope Greenland into a defence deal. The US and NATO allies have significant gaps in surveillance coverage in parts of the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The US could add more sophisticated sensors to add to the early warning radars that the Pentagon already has in place at Pituffik Space Base, on the northwestern tip of the island.
Will Greenlanders want to just switch to a new colonial master? Whether Trump is posturing or intends to follow through on his statements remains to be seen.
The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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