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How Trump 2.0 can impact India’s northeast border – Firstpost

How Trump 2.0 can impact India’s northeast border – Firstpost



The last few years have been a time of change for India’s neighbourhood. A new government was chosen in Sri Lanka and Nepal; Imran Khan lost the confidence motion, ceasing to hold the office of prime minister; the Taliban took over Afghanistan; the military junta took control of Myanmar; and there was a regime change in Bangladesh. While all these developments have an impact on India’s bilateral relations and security, it is the northeastern border of India that has been much in the news. With the chaos in Myanmar since the military coup in 2021 and Bangladesh’s unstable internal security, it is not a surprise that India’s northeastern border, one of the most volatile regions in Asia, is on high alert.

But apart from the internal conflict in both these countries and multiple stakeholders, all eyes are now on the Donald J Trump presidency and how the US will engage with these countries. After all, it has been widely speculated that the US had a definitive role in the unceremonious ouster of the democratically elected leader of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina. In Myanmar too, the much talked about Burma Act HR 5497 was welcomed by various anti-junta groups in Myanmar in the hope that there would be increased US pressure on the Tatmadaw.

India, on the other hand, has had to navigate a serpentine route. India called for peace but did not sever ties even at the behest of Western powers. Many would conclude that the fall of Bangladesh might be the West teaching India a lesson for not adhering to their policy on the war. India’s stance undoubtedly put pressure on India-US ties. Today, India is uncomfortable with the new regime in Bangladesh, especially because of the security implications for its northeastern borders and concern for the safety of minorities in Bangladesh.

However, on Diwali last year, the then president hopeful, Donald Trump, gave a strong message on X condemning the violence against minorities in Bangladesh. He wrote, “Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America, and under my administration we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.” While his statement has been widely seen as a positive indication for India-US relations, there are many other matters, such as Khalistani separatist groups and individuals on American soil, that need resolution.

The Muhammad Yunus-led interim government has had a good relationship with Washington, which Yunus will not want to jeopardise with Trump. But typical of Trump, he may not have forgotten what Yunus said when he won the 2016 elections against Hillary Clinton. Yunus, an old friend of the Clintons, had said the victory had shattered him so much that he could barely speak or move around. He likened the results to a solar eclipse and the future full of dark days.

Additionally, with Tulsi Gabbard, an ISKCON devotee and now Trump’s choice for Director of National Intelligence, there is expected to be a pushback against the attack on temples and arrest of ISKCON functionaries. Even though US foreign policy will serve its own national priorities first and not change unless there are threats to its own interests, Trump’s positive relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi might be an influencing factor. For India, its northeast borders are large and porous and are under constant threat from militant organisations from Bangladesh and ethnic armed organisations from Myanmar, making it a priority for Modi.

Recently, Bangladesh, in a direct provocation to India, had released Islamist Jashimuddin Rahmani Hafi, who had plotted terror attacks on India. Rahmani, the chief of the al-Qaeda affiliate, Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), asked West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to “declare independence from Modi’s rule”. The recently freed terrorist also said that “India will be partitioned, and Islamist flags hoisted over Delhi”. With multiple such incidents, the threat is not just to India but also to the rise of Islamic radicalisation and regional stability, which is imminent. The Trump administration would benefit from viewing the impact of displacing a democratically elected government with an interim one from the lens of India’s security. Nevertheless, the one issue that is entirely predictable is that the interim government will not be successful in pushing its agenda to resettle Rohingya refugees in other countries like the US.

Similarly, in the case of Myanmar, a country whose resistance, ethnic armed organisations under the umbrella of the National Unity Government (NUG), has depended largely on support from the US and other Western countries. The Thai-Myanmar border has over 90,000 refugees spread over nine camps that have been hoping to immigrate to the US for decades. Since the 2021 coup, there are 45,000 more hoping to move to the US under the Temporary Protection Program. However, with Trump at the helm, it’s unlikely that there is going to be any movement on this front. Trump is also likely to scrutinise the aid being dispensed to Myanmar under the Burma Act, which allocated $121 million for 2024. This could be debilitating for Myanmar.

A United Nations Development Program (UNDP) report has stated that the condition of Rakhine state is a famine in the making. By March-April 2025, domestic food production will only cover 20 per cent of the state’s needs, and over 2 million people are at risk of starvation. Critically, the result of this scenario would be more missionaries, aid agencies, and activism, some, if not all, with vested interests, finding a foothold in the region. It was not long ago that Sheikh Hasina, as the prime minister of Bangladesh, had alleged Western interest in carving out a Christian state from parts of Bangladesh, Myanmar, and a third country that she did not name. Nevertheless, it was not lost on anyone that she was alluding to India on its northeastern border.

With the impending disaster of starvation and the ongoing conflict and migration, it is only reasonable to expect India’s northeastern borders to be burdened with the fallout of Myanmar’s internal issues. The Manipur conflict in India was possibly the first indicator of the impact of Myanmar’s conflict on India. With Trump in Washington, his “America First” policy will directly have an impact on Myanmar, with ripples felt through the northeast region of India.

Furthermore, if the Trump administration meddles with the Malacca Strait or St Martins Island, it is possible that China may need to increase its footprint in Myanmar. The $8.9 million rail link that has been planned from Kunming to Kyaukphyu by China will become a priority as it will connect to the Kyaukphyu deep sea port. And any changes in the much talked about St Martin’s Island may promote China to increase its surveillance on the Coco Islands, which happen to be only 55 km away from India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, leading to anxiety for all stakeholders in the Bay of Bengal.

India must prioritise its northeastern borders while building upon the goodwill that Modi built with Trump in 2016. India certainly is more prepared for the Trump presidency today than it was for his first term. While Trump attends the Quad summit this year, India will welcome him as it did in 2020, with enthusiasm. But the US must also realise that India’s large democratic population is of consequence to the world and that it has a close civilisational relationship with the neighbourhood.

Any attempt at destabilising the region will result in a loss of trust and goodwill. Once, famously, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called out the “cherry-picking” by the West. He said of the European mindset that “Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems. That if it is you, it’s yours; if it is me, it is ours”. Therefore, for India, the direction that the Trump presidency will take towards India’s security concerns, especially on its northeast borders, will be evident through his diplomatic engagements in India’s neighbourhood.

Rami Niranjan Desai is an anthropologist and a scholar of the northeast region of India. She is a columnist and author and presently Distinguished Fellow at India Foundation, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.



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