How Trump 2.0 has renewed the vigour of Quad – Firstpost
China stands as the singular economic and military challenge uniting the Quad—the US, India, Japan, and Australia coalition. For all the noise, Quad is still an awkward set, not quite a diplomatic grouping, neither a military alliance but jointly exercising and planning ways to deal with China and its ambitions to dominate the Indo-Pacific.
The China threat is enough for now to override the increasing internal contradictions of the group.
With Donald Trump back in the White House and Marco Rubio, a resolute China hawk, leading the State Department, the Quad finds itself with a new vigour. While Beijing’s assertiveness offers a unifying threat, Trump’s unconventional leadership and Rubio’s aggressive foreign policy are reshaping the group in ways that bring promise.
The US needs to have a political structure that provides confidence to the other partners even as it becomes more isolationist under Trump. While this will mean greater opportunity for each partner to flex its muscles, there is tension and nervousness that when push comes to shove, the partners will be left to face China alone.
The Thekedari offer
Under Rubio’s stewardship, Washington has adopted an uncompromising approach to China, pushing for the Quad to assume a more active military posture. Rubio has been instrumental in deploying additional US Navy carrier strike groups to the Pacific and bolstering aerial surveillance over the South China Sea. However, Trump’s prioritisation of domestic issues has also meant that America is increasingly “farming out” responsibilities to its allies, what we Indians call thekedari.
So India, Japan, and Australia are being asked not just to participate in exercises like Malabar but to actively contribute to joint deployments and patrols in contested waters. For India, this marks a significant shift from its historical policy of strategic autonomy. Such a transition would necessitate a dramatic increase in defence spending, potentially to 2.5 per cent of GDP—a politically and fiscally challenging proposition for New Delhi.
Japan’s role in this evolving Quad is critical. Having shed decades of pacifism, Tokyo is embracing its position as a frontline player against Chinese assertion. Under its rearmament program, Japan has doubled its defence budget and acquired long-range strike capabilities, allowing it to take a more proactive role in the Indo-Pacific. Already with the most powerful Asian Navy after China, it is adding modern drones as well as amphibious and airborne capabilities at a very rapid rate.
Its geographic location makes it indispensable for countering China’s provocations near Taiwan and in the East China Sea. Rubio has placed Japan at the centre of the Quad’s military strategy, encouraging closer coordination between Japanese forces and their Indian and Australian counterparts. Tokyo’s willingness to rearm is transforming the Quad into a more formidable and balanced coalition.
The four corners of contradiction
However, the group is not without its strains. Trump’s penchant for protectionist policies has resurfaced, potentially with new tariffs targeting imports from India, Japan, and Australia. While Rubio emphasises the importance of unity against China, Trump’s economic policies threaten to strain relations. India, reliant on its growing export relationship with the US, and Australia, a key supplier of critical minerals, find themselves at odds with Washington’s trade agenda. Japan, too, is wary of additional tariffs that could disrupt its tightly integrated supply chains. Such economic frictions risk eroding the trust that underpins the Quad, offering China an opportunity to exploit these divisions.
Beijing, for its part, has been quick to test the Quad’s cohesion. It has renewed overtures to India and Japan, offering diplomatic concessions and limited trade deals. However, its aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific and particularly against India undermine these efforts. Recent incidents, such as the harassment of Filipino vessels in the South China Sea and intensified military drills near Taiwan, and no sign of disengagement on the Himalayan frontier, highlight Beijing’s relentless threat.
At the same time, China risks overextension. By antagonising India on its Himalayan border, Japan over the Senkaku Islands, and Southeast Asian nations over maritime disputes, Beijing is spreading itself thin. This creates an opening for the Quad to counterbalance China’s overreach through coordinated strategies and expanded military presence.
For the Quad, the stakes have never been higher. Rubio’s push for a militarised response to China has injected urgency into the group’s activities, but Trump’s protectionism complicates its ability to present a united front. India, Japan, and Australia must now weigh the benefits of deeper strategic ties with Washington against the costs of economic tensions. Meanwhile, the transition from joint exercises to joint deployments will need significant political capital and indeed signals an escalation in the Quad’s ambitions, one that will test the resolve and resources of its members.
The Quad’s strength lies in its ability to adapt and align against a common threat. But the group’s future depends on whether its members can navigate their competing interests without undermining their shared purpose. In an increasingly fraught Indo-Pacific, the Quad remains a vital counterweight to China’s ambitions—a group imperfectly bound but united, for now, by a far greater threat.
The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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