How Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ over Iran can hurt his MAGA dream – Firstpost

The return of Trump 2.0 has signalled resuming a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iran, formalised to target Iran’s oil export, military capability, and trade already under stress. It aims to put pressure on Iran to agree on the nuclear deal under threat.

For Iran, such capitulation will result in a key security asset being surrendered without assured guarantees. Thus, it is a zero-sum game with adverse fallout for West Asia. The consequences of US-Iran escalated tensions impact global markets, strategic security, and geopolitical alignments.

US Sanctions on Iran’s Oil Sector Under Trump 2.0

On 6 February 2025, the US Treasury announced that it would be “restoring maximum pressure” on Iran by imposing new economic sanctions on the Iranian oil industry. The latest restrictions target an international network of shipping tankers that transport oil from Iran to countries like China, with the proceeds allegedly used by the Iranian government to fund the development of nuclear weapons. Some key sanctions imposed are:

February 2025: The Department of State and the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned a combined total of 22 persons and identified 13 vessels as blocked property across multiple jurisdictions for their involvement in Iran’s oil industry.
March 2025: The US sanctioned Iran’s Petroleum Minister, Mohsen Paknejad, accusing him of facilitating billions of dollars in oil revenues for military and regional destabilisation efforts. The Treasury Department targeted Iran’s “shadow fleet”, a network of vessels and entities accused of falsifying documents to transport oil to China.
April 2025: President Donald Trump threatened secondary tariffs on nations purchasing oil from Iran and Russia, pressuring major buyers like China and India.
Sanctions Target Iran’s UAV and Ballistic Missile Procurement Networks: The US sanctioned six entities and two individuals based in Iran, the UAE, and China that have been involved in the procurement of key components on behalf of entities connected to Iran’s UAV and ballistic missile programs.

The US earlier had imposed financial restrictions on Iranian banks facilitating oil transactions, further tightening the economic squeeze. The present additional sanctions by Trump 2.0 target Iran’s oil exports, bringing its economy to its knees, while pressuring global allies to disengage economically with Tehran or face sanctions too.

The inflation rate stands at 37.1 per cent in March 2025, and the value of the rial is a record low of 1,000,000 rials to the dollar. Iran’s real GDP growth at 3.1 per cent for 2025 is also lagging behind the regional average of 3.9 per cent.

Deteriorating economic conditions and the lack of prospects for sanctions removals have the potential for social unrest with fractures within the society. This could see the fractured relationship between ultra-hardliners, reformists and the elite, impacting internal cohesion.

Iran’s Perspective and Response

US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that “there will be a bombing” if Iran does not make a new nuclear deal. Iranian officials also threatened to attack US allies who enable a strike, which may aim to discourage allies from allowing the US to use their facilities out of fear of Iranian retaliation.

Iran continues to threaten the US with military action to dissuade America from a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid new US threats to strike the nuclear facilities. Iran has explicitly identified three possible responses to an attack on its nuclear facilities: retaliation against US bases and forces in the region, disruption of international trade in the Straits of Hormuz, and conducting a direct attack on Israel. Iran is also rebuilding its long-range ballistic missile facilities, particularly solid fuel propellant stock damaged after Israeli strikes.

To stymie any social unrest or discontent, Syrian Interim President Ahmed al-Shara appointed loyalists to key cabinet positions in the new transitional government while nominally broadening his ruling coalition by appointing several minorities and technocrats to less-critical ministries.

Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei included demands that Iran curtail its missile program and its role in supporting its proxies and partners in the Axis of Resistance. Iranian officials have publicly stated that they are unwilling to make concessions to reach a new nuclear deal with the United States under President Trump’s desired timeline or terms.

The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) reportedly gave Iran a June 2025 deadline to conclude a nuclear deal before the E3 imposes snapback sanctions.

At the strategic level, the US and Israel are playing a zero-sum game which essentially offers Tehran a choice between accepting nuclear surrender or facing attack.

From Iran’s view, the current regional security landscape is a volatile mix of threats and limited strategic options. Israel’s potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear assets are an immediate danger. The US “maximum pressure” policy to choke Iran’s oil supply and communication chains with its regional allies impacts its strategic existence. These threats and sanctions are driving Iran to choose between nuclearising its strike capabilities or conceding on essential safeguards to Iran’s national security. The latter is most unlikely with zero assurances to make the deal attractive or acceptable.

Global Implications

The intensification of US sanctions on Iran has far-reaching consequences:

Oil Market Volatility: The restrictions on Iranian oil exports, combined with secondary tariffs on Russian oil, have led to fluctuations in global crude prices. Surrendering to the US pressures on China and India to comply under threat of sanctions could further cause disruptions in the global energy markets.
Military Escalation: With Iran ramping up its nuclear program in defiance of sanctions, there are concerns that military interventions or strikes by Israel/the US could become inevitable. This could flare up into a regional conflict, drawing in extra-regional powers into a wider conflict.
Humanitarian Ethics of Sanctions: The economic impact of sanctions on ordinary Iranians and the ethics of using economic measures as a geopolitical tool can disproportionately cause humanitarian crises and social unrest.

Regional Implications

Tensions between the US and Iran aggravate rivalries in West Asia. Besides the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel perceive Iran’s nuclear capabilities as an existential threat, potentially triggering an arms race in the region. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries understand that a cornered, nuclear or unstable Iran may be more dangerous than an expansionist Iran. West Asia thus remains cautious, as any direct conflict could have severe economic ramifications and escalate into a wider conflict.

India’s Dilemma

India finds itself in a geopolitical dilemma amid escalating US-Iran tensions. Both the US and Iran serve India’s economic and strategic interests. Iran is India’s main supplier of crude oil, but with US sanctions, India has been forced to cut its imports out of increased costs, relying on other suppliers.

Also, investments in Iran’s Chabahar port that would enhance Central Asia’s trade and relations are hindered by US sanctions. Any further sanctions could undermine India’s strategic interests in the region. This would impact its relationship with the US. The US is a strategic partner not only in India’s growth trajectory and technology sovereignty aspirations but also in balancing China in the Indo-Pacific.

India thus needs to carefully balance its relationships with both the US and Iran for the furtherance of its national interest. In the long term with US secondary sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil, India must revisit its energy security calculus for strategic autonomy.

Prognosis

The US-Iran tensions, fuelled by nuclear dynamics and economic sanctions, remain a critical challenge to regional and global stability. The spillover effect of these tensions extends beyond the two nations, affecting geopolitical alignments, global oil markets and regional stability.

The response options to US escalatory sanctions for Iran are limited. If Tehran chooses to confront military strikes, the likelihood of it becoming a nuclear-armed state increases significantly, pushing West Asia toward greater instability. Further, it risks oil prices soaring, the dynamics of choking the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, and retaliatory attacks on Israeli and American interests by Iran’s proxies. It could also lead to the possibility of internal unrest within Iran that could trigger a regime change. A combination of both could potentially turn Iran much like the aftermath of the Iraq War in 2003 or the ongoing crisis in Syria.

Israeli leaders may see this as an opportunity for neutralising the Iranian threat by strikes on the nuclear assets and reinforcing regional dominance. However, Israel itself faces multiple adverse fronts, internal dissension, and increasing global condemnation, all of which could hinder any misadventure.

The US must realise the focus on China could be diluted by its aggressive muscle-flexing focused on Iran and may de facto strengthen the Russia-Iran-China (North Korea?) axis. The trilateral partnership between China, Russia, and Iran challenges US dominance in the region, further shifting geopolitical alignments. Trump is creating too many tsunamis which will need to be reeled back before they boomerang into a crisis for MAGA. Diplomacy must come to the fore, not arm-twisting.

The author is former Director General, Mechanised Forces. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.