In the era of Trumpism, Ukraine should find a safe escape – Firstpost

When I began writing this piece on March 1, it was intended as a commentary on the very public, live-televised humiliation of Volodymyr Zelenskyy by Donald Trump and his understudy, JD Vance, in the Oval Office on February 28. Undoubtedly, it was a chaotic spectacle with no parallel in modern times. And the biggest loser in that reality TV shouting match was statecraft and civil diplomacy.

As I finish this piece, much has changed in less than a fortnight. First, on March 11, Donald Trump completed 50 days in his second inning of ‘Trumpism’—a period in which he has upended the “world order”. Second, that same day marked the 1,111th day of the Russia-Ukraine war—a war now in a stalemate, but where a resurgent Russia has suddenly gained the upper hand.

This piece addresses both: 50 days of Trump and 1,111 days of war and beyond. But first, a brief look at how Trump has upended the world in these 50 days.

Fifty Days of Disruption

On March 11, President Trump completed 50 days in office during his second term. In this brief period, he has upended the entire global order. In a whirlwind start, Trump has shaken America’s executive branch, European security, the liberal international order, global economics, and much more. These 50 days have seemed like a lifetime for the world, given the disruptive, deleterious, and pervasive impact of new Trumpism.

Trump has successfully derailed the carefully crafted post-World War II compact of economic, geopolitical, and strategic architecture among Western powers, bringing Europe dangerously close to its figurative “five minutes to midnight” moment. This has forced Europe to prepare for a future without America. As if that weren’t enough damage, Trump has also left the world reeling in turmoil due to his nonsensical trade wars, which have affected both friends and foes alike.

Trump’s first geopolitical targets have been the Western Hemisphere and ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East. He has already threatened to override the sovereignty of Greenland, Canada, and Panama to assert US dominance. He also aims to acquire Gaza for real estate development and has fundamentally altered the course of the Russia-Ukraine war with his dangerous unilateral dealings with the aggressor, Russia. These actions have made the future of Ukraine increasingly uncertain.

End of an Era

In the new Trumpism, the signal to the world is unmistakable: It is the end of an era. The United States’ eight decades of commitment to defense, diplomacy, and international development have all but ended. And as if America has lost its moral compass, Trump is shedding friends and befriending autocrats. He has upended the foundations of the existing world order. The US commitment to multilateralism, the transatlantic partnership, and even the norm of sovereignty have been irrevocably broken.

Trump is disregarding gradual, nondisruptive changes and calling for an immediate and radical reordering of the world. If he has his way, the global system we’ve known is in real danger of being obliterated.

The Dismemberment Time

The disruption and destruction caused by Trump may take time, but the dismemberment of Ukraine could happen sooner. Whether it’s due to a newly energised Vladimir Putin or as part of Trump’s curated plan to end the war with Russia emerging victorious, the future looks grim.

The Ukrainian president has been reduced to a pawn in the game of chess between Europe and America. His continued presidency is now uncertain, with Trump already on record saying on March 9 that “Ukraine may not survive even with American support”.

Down on His Knees

Close on the heels of the Oval Office spat, Trump paused all military assistance and sharing of critical intelligence with Ukraine. This move forced Zelenskyy to bend on his knees, profoundly thanking Trump for his leadership (duly tutored over a week by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron). The result? “Team Ukraine” agreed to a 30-day ceasefire to the three-year-old war, with terms dictated by the US. Ironically, there is no guarantee that Russia will honour this temporary ceasefire, even if it is brokered by Trump’s team, though Moscow says that the ceasefire must result in lasting peace.

Damage Done

War is an uncertain game of marshalling supplies, troops, and firepower to sustain the fight and fend off advancing armies. Ukraine had been doing a decent job since Russia’s invasion more than three years ago—saving 80 per cent of its territory and inflicting substantial damage on Russian forces.

But then came the mortal blow: the US pause on military aid and intelligence sharing. This move was ostensibly Trump’s way of punishing Zelenskyy and forcing him to bend. The pause brought uncertainty into Ukraine’s military planning, disrupting their strategy just when they had stalled Russia’s offensive in eastern Donetsk and started to win back small patches of land.

The pause was the signal Putin’s forces were waiting for. Energised, Russian forces inflicted incalculable damage on Ukrainian troops, making major gains in Kursk and other regions, driving Ukraine’s forces out of territory they had held since last August. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defense, the recapture of a dozen settlements and over 100 square kilometers of territory accelerated after the US paused military aid.

Lifted and Resumed

In typical Trump fashion, after inflicting massive damage on Ukraine with his pause in military aid and intelligence sharing (the latter being the more damaging), the pause was lifted. This came after the Ukrainian delegation, led by President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, signed a “Joint Communique” curated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman acting as an intermediary.

Before the talks, Zelenskyy met the Saudi de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to secure a favourable deal.

But the question remains: will Zelenskyy survive as president of Ukraine? More importantly, will Ukraine survive as an independent nation, either as a democracy championed by Europe or with a Kremlin-supported leader as desired by Putin?

Took Candy from the Baby

Despite his complete capitulation in Jeddah after the Oval Office showdown, the future of Ukraine remains uncertain. On March 9, Trump, in an interview with Fox News, gave a clue: not only did he call Zelenskyy “ungrateful”, but he also said that Zelenskyy “took candy from a baby”—his description of the Biden administration’s military and political support for Ukraine. He added that Ukraine may not survive as a nation.

Even though the pause on sharing aid and intelligence was brief, it gave Russia a tremendous advantage. Putin will undoubtedly ask for his pound of flesh, even for the short-term ceasefire.

Dancing to Trump’s Tune

Zelenskyy is now forced to dance to Trump’s tune: willing to pause the fighting and agreeing to sign a mineral-sharing deal that Trump is keen on. But there is an imminent danger to Ukraine. A peace deal may come at a heavy price: Ukraine may lose 20 per cent of its territory already under Russian occupation, with its current frontlines frozen into a de facto border between Ukrainian and Russian-occupied territories.

American negotiators have already indicated that Ukraine will have to give up some of its territory for the war to end. For Russia, the ceasefire has double benefits: it gets time to regroup its forces and solidify its strategy for the war.

Trump Takes it All

The moral of the drama that began on February 28 in the Oval Office and continues to unfold is this: Trump takes it all, while Zelenskyy becomes a pawn between Europe and America. In less than 15 days, the great ‘resistor’ of Europe has quickly transitioned into an ‘ungrateful supplicant’, now committed to ‘vassalage’ under ‘Trumpistan’.

Unsurprisingly, the joint communique issued after the talks in Jeddah makes no mention of the security cover Zelenskyy has been asking America to provide. Instead, it’s clear that Ukraine will sign a critical minerals deal with the US, which Trump sees as a “reparation” to American taxpayers for the aid sent to Ukraine. The amount Trump demands? An astounding $500 billion. He remains firm in his proposition that any security cover for Ukraine should be provided by Europe.

1,111 Days After

March 11, the day of the first official peace talks between Ukraine and America after the Oval Office debacle, also marked the 1,111th day of the Russia-Ukraine war. On that day, Ukraine launched what could be the biggest drone attack on Russia since the war began—at least 91 drones targeted Moscow and more than 240 drones aimed at other regions across the country. The attack hit Moscow’s oil refinery, which supplies a third of the city’s fuel, and also killed at least three people and injured 18.

Not to be Outdone

Russia, for its part, has continued its relentless bombardment of Ukrainian civilian and military targets, intensifying after Trump’s arrival. The new normal? 100 drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles launched every night.

Over to Putin

The talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, have been able to get Ukraine agree to have a 30-day ceasefire, which has been an achievement given the public confrontation that happened in the White House on February 28. After the talks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “We’ll take this offer now to the Russians, and we hope that they’ll say ‘yes’, that they’ll say yes to peace.”

As for Ukraine, Andriy Kovalenko, a national security council official, has said the recent drone attack, on March 11, should encourage Russian President Putin to accept the Kyiv’s proposals.

Now it’s over to Putin. Which side is he on—war or peace? In either case, he will extract his pound of flesh. However, Moscow has said that the ceasefire proposed by Ukraine’s side will work only if it brings ‘lasting peace’ and addresses the ‘root causes’ of the war. It has already flagged a red light and put a string of conditions to accept the ceasefire. If Russia agrees to a settlement with Ukraine, even if the latter loses 20 per cent of its territory, Ukraine should consider itself lucky—with or without Zelenskyy at the helm.

The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.