Is Merz’s win enough to secure a stable government? – Firstpost

On Sunday, February 23, general polls were held in Germany, marking a rare snap election held seven months ahead of its scheduled time. The early election was triggered by the collapse of the deeply unpopular and long-troubled three-party coalition government, consisting of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentalist Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), which had governed Germany since 2021. The fractious coalition, headed by Chancellor Scholz, collapsed in November after months of infighting over the budget.

Shorter Campaign

The 2025 election was only the fourth early election in Germany’s history, following the others in 1972, 1983, and 2005. As a result, the campaign was much shorter than typical German elections, where parties, politicians, the media, and pollsters usually have months to prepare for a set date.

Triad

This election holds significant weight due to both temporal and existential issues. Temporal concerns revolve around Europe’s struggle to find a strong continental leader at a time when recalibrating relations with Trump’s America has become urgent. The existential issues dominating the election include a triad: Germany’s economic slump (the German nation is currently facing a potential third consecutive year of recession), the ongoing energy crisis and inflation (particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine war), and the continued influx of migrants, with several violent incidents linked to migrants over the past year.

Loser All the Way

The center-left Social Democrats (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), whose withdrawal from the coalition triggered the snap election, emerged as the biggest losers. Here’s a breakdown:

One, the Worst Performance

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD received just 16.4% of the vote following the collapse of its “traffic light coalition” government—a dramatic decline from the 25.7% they secured in the 2021 election. This marks not only the SPD’s worst performance in a federal election but also its largest loss in terms of votes compared to previous elections. Owning responsibility for the loss, outgoing Chancellor Scholz said, “This time the election result is bad, and that is why I am also responsible for this election result.” He added, “The fact that an extreme right-wing party like the AfD is getting such election results in this country must never be something we accept.” Despite the crushing defeat, the SPD may still have some hope due to Germany’s electoral system, a point I will address later.

Two, Decimated

The Free Democratic Party (FDP), whose exit from the coalition triggered the snap election, faced the heaviest losses. With only 4.7% of the vote, the FDP failed to meet the 5% threshold required for representation in the Bundestag, thus exiting the lower house.

Brandmauer Cracks

In Germany, aligning with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has long been considered a taboo among the four mainstream parties. However, the 2025 election results have shattered this long standing barrier. The AfD surged to second place, doubling its vote share from 2021 to 20.8%, sending a worrying signal to mainstream parties. While they may despise the AfD, they can no longer afford to ignore the party, both within parliament and beyond. The rise of the AfD is not unique to Germany; 15 of the 27 EU states currently have hard-right support above 20%. The AfD has crossed a significant line in Germany, and for the first time since World War II, a far-right party has come second in a German national election, signaling that their rise may not be over.

And the Winner Is… Not Yet

With vote counting complete, the Federal Returning Office has reported that the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), won the election with 28.6% of the vote. Merz is likely to become the next German Chancellor, but this will depend on the complex process of forming a coalition with a majority in the Bundestag.

The Complex Conundrum

In German elections, voters cast two votes: one for a candidate to represent their constituency, and another for a party’s state list (the second vote). The first vote determines half of the parliament’s composition, ensuring district representation, while the second vote decides the number of seats each party holds in the Bundestag, based on their vote share. The Bundestag has 630 seats, with a 5% vote threshold for party representation, though exceptions are made for parties that win at least three electoral districts.

The King and the Kingmakers

While the CDU/CSU won the largest share of votes at 28.6%, they do not hold an absolute majority. They are projected to win 208 seats in the Bundestag. For Friedrich Merz to become Chancellor, CDU/CSU needs to form a coalition with other parties to secure a majority of 316 seats, the minimum required for control of the government.

Permutations and Combinations

Approximately two dozen parties contested the election, but only five are expected to be represented in the Bundestag. Their seat shares, in descending order, are CDU/CSU (208), AfD (152), SPD (120), Greens (85), and The Left (64), with others holding just 1 seat. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the FDP fell short of the 5% threshold but may still gain representation in the final count.

The crucial question now is which coalition will help Friedrich Merz secure the Chancellorship, and if he succeeds, how stable and enduring his coalition will be compared to the current government. Here are a few possibilities:

One, Strange Bedfellows

A coalition between CDU/CSU and AfD would give them a comfortable majority of 360 seats. However, this would be an unlikely alliance, as CDU has long ruled out partnering with AfD. Yet, given AfD’s strong position, CDU/CSU may need to rely on the far-right party for much of their legislative agenda. Merz’s views on migration are now closer to AfD’s than ever before, as evidenced by his party’s nonbinding approval for a proposal to drastically restrict migration, with AfD’s support.

Two, Victor Embraces the Vanquished

A two-way coalition between CDU/CSU (208) and SPD (120) would give a thinner majority of 328 seats, exceeding the 316-seat minimum. Known as a “Grand Coalition”, this combination is the most likely, as it has been acceptable in German politics, with CDU/CSU and SPD forming such coalitions in the past. However, the quality of governance from this cohabitation of the victor and the vanquished is uncertain, particularly in these politically and economically challenging times.

Three, The Three-Way Crowd

Another possibility is a three-way coalition involving CDU/CSU (208), SPD (120), and Greens (85), which would yield a majority of 403 seats. A second three-way combination of CDU/CSU, Greens, and Die Linke would also provide a majority, with 357 seats.

Hobson’s Choice

The German political landscape has become more fragmented than ever. While CDU/CSU has the largest vote share, they lack the sweeping mandate needed to reform Germany, as Friedrich Merz had hoped. Merz has ruled out a coalition with AfD, while CSU leader Markus Söder has ruled out working with the Greens, leaving CDU/CSU with Hobson’s choice of forming a renewed ‘Grand Coalition’ with the SPD. Historically, CDU/CSU and SPD have governed together multiple times, forming coalitions in 1966–1969, 2005–2009, 2013–2018, and 2018–2021.

What Next?

The fragmentation of German politics comes at a particularly fraught time, as Germany requires major reforms to address its struggling economy. These reforms include structural changes, pension reforms, and critical ‘debt brake’ adjustments. Moreover, Europe faces daily uncertainties due to the policies of US President Donald Trump. The German parliament must convene within 30 days of the election, but it may take months to form a stable coalition to bring Friedrich Merz to the Chancellorship. In the meantime, Olaf Scholz will serve as caretaker Chancellor, unable to make major policy decisions. The longer the delay in government formation, the greater the chaos and confusion.

The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.