It’s time for Germany to redefine its role in European leadership – Firstpost

The recent German elections have confirmed a significant rightward shift in their political landscape. However, this transformation presents a complex conundrum regarding the formation of a stable government. The leading CDU/CSU alliance has categorically ruled out any coalition with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), the second-largest party in the Bundestag. This decision leaves them with a limited set of options, primarily forming a coalition with the currently ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD), which holds 120 seats. With CDU/CSU’s 208 seats, this partnership could secure a stable majority in the 630-member Bundestag.

A two-party coalition is the preferred scenario, as a three-party government often leads to policy paralysis and instability. Germany needs a robust and cohesive administration capable of making decisive moves to restore economic stability and reinforce the social compact—both of which have suffered in recent years. Economic concerns, inflation, and shifts in global trade dynamics have pushed Germany into an introspective stance, similar to that of France, which has also been grappling with internal instability.

The Fragile Transatlantic Relationship

While German political parties have varying foreign policy priorities, many challenges they face stem from external factors, particularly upheavals in the transatlantic alliance. Germany’s economic vitality is crucial for it to maintain its leadership role in Europe. Since Brexit, Germany and France have attempted to provide cohesive leadership within the European Union (EU), but the SPD-led coalition government in Berlin saw a noticeable weakening of Franco-German coordination. Restoring this alignment is imperative.

Germany’s relationship with the United States underwent significant strain during the first term of Donald Trump’s presidency. The Trump 2.0 administration’s confrontational stance towards Europe and Germany raises anxieties in Berlin about long-term strategic autonomy. In between these two tenures of Trump, the Biden administration attempted to mend relations, but divergences persist—particularly concerning security in Eastern Europe and economic policies toward China and Russia.

The Russian Dilemma and Energy Security

Three years ago, before Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany and France believed that their diplomatic efforts, under the Minsk process, would suffice to manage the crisis without direct US intervention. However, the invasion rendered these efforts futile and placed NATO, led by the US, at the forefront of European security policy. Under pressure, Germany was forced to abandon its energy-based trade relationship with Russia, a move that has resulted in economic turmoil, including skyrocketing energy prices and disruptions in industrial output.

Now, with the US showing signs of recalibrating its stance on Russia—engaging in backchannel discussions while leaving Europe and Ukraine on the periphery—Germany is reassessing its long-term strategy. If the US disengages further from Ukraine, Berlin faces a critical question: should it continue to support Kyiv militarily, or should it push for a diplomatic settlement to facilitate a more stable energy and economic environment at home?

The economic repercussions of severing ties with Russia have been severe. Germany, known for its energy-intensive industrial base, continues to struggle with high costs and supply shortages. A new German administration will have to balance the need for energy security with the geopolitical risks of engaging with Moscow. While acting autonomously is an option, it remains uncertain whether Berlin would take such a step without US endorsement.

Europe’s Role in the Ukraine Crisis

Another pressing issue is the evolving European stance on the Ukraine war. While the US has shouldered the bulk of military support, European nations, particularly Germany, have significantly increased their defence spending—many now meeting the NATO benchmark of 2 per cent of GDP. Germany, in fact, has become the second-largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine, after the US. If Washington scales back its involvement, the responsibility of sustaining Ukraine’s efforts may fall squarely on Europe.

Some European leaders believe that fast-tracking Ukraine’s EU accession could serve as a long-term security guarantee, particularly given that NATO membership remains off the table due to concerns over Russian retaliation. The timeline for Ukraine’s EU integration, currently projected for 2030, could be expedited if Germany and France push for it as a security measure.

Germany, China, and the Future of Trade

Beyond security concerns, Germany’s economic future is deeply intertwined with its relationship with China. While the US has aggressively pursued a “China Plus One” strategy—aiming to reduce dependence on Beijing—Germany remains cautious. China is a critical market for German manufacturers, particularly in the struggling automobile industry. Many German companies rely on their Chinese operations for profitability, making a complete decoupling impractical.

Despite these economic incentives, Germany is exploring alternative markets in the Indo-Pacific, including India, in alignment with broader European diversification efforts. However, replacing China as a primary trading partner is a long-term challenge that Berlin cannot resolve overnight. This delicate balancing act—maintaining economic ties with China while appeasing the US and European allies—will be a defining challenge for the new German administration.

Navigating the Transatlantic Alliance

Once a coalition government is in place, the presumptive Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, will likely prioritise stabilising the German-US partnership. While European leaders, including those from France, Poland, and the UK, are engaging bilaterally with Washington, the Trump administration has shown less enthusiasm for working with the EU as a collective entity. This shift forces Germany to reassess its diplomatic approach.

Germany’s renewed commitment to NATO and its increased defence spending align with US strategic interests, but economic policy differences remain. The transatlantic economic partnership has now surpassed Germany’s trade relations with China, making it an indispensable pillar of German economic policy. However, Washington’s demand for increased European defence spending and alignment on global trade policies presents a challenge that Berlin must navigate carefully.

Conclusion: A New Chapter in German Politics

The new German government will inherit a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape. Domestically, the challenge of forming a stable coalition will be critical in ensuring effective governance. Internationally, Berlin must redefine its role in European leadership, manage strained relations with both Washington and Moscow, and sustain economic ties with China without alienating its fellow Western allies. How the new coalition places these German aspirations in their policy document will be an indicator.

As Germany steps into this new era, its ability to balance economic pragmatism with geopolitical realities will determine its success. A recalibrated approach toward the transatlantic alliance, an independent yet cooperative stance on European security, and a resilient economic strategy will be essential for Germany’s stability and leadership in the years to come. Only then can Germany truly lead Europe into an autonomous position.

The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.