on | Netanyahu’s nightmare after Gaza ceasefire – Firstpost
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stalled for months a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in Gaza. It took intense pressure from the United States and the families of Israeli hostages still held captive by Hamas to compel Netanyahu to sign the multi-phase peace deal brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt.
Why was Netanyahu fiercely opposed to a truce with Hamas? There are three principal reasons.
One, the 15-month war with Hamas hasn’t resulted in the total destruction of Hamas. That was the non-negotiable objective of the war following the lethal Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Despite Israel assassinating the top leadership of Hamas and killing over 46,000 people in Gaza, including an estimated 30,000 women and children with many more bodies buried under rubble, Hamas has reportedly recruited 20,000 new fighters to its ranks. Far from destroying Hamas, Israel has given it a second wind.
Two, the ceasefire deal, once all phases are completed, will re-legitimise Hamas, giving it a role in the reconstruction of Gaza. Infrastructure companies in the US, Europe, Middle East and India are eyeing one of the most lucrative rebuilding projects in decades. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, a real estate developer, plans to make Gaza a modern, high-tech enclave. That bodes ill for Israel’s long-term security.
Three, once lasting peace breaks out over the region, the issue that haunts Netanyahu and most Israelis is the likely establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state.
Netanyahu has gone on record to declare that he will never accept an independent Palestine co-existing side-by-side with Israel. His party, Likud, makes the point clear in its official manifesto.
This is what Likud’s Party Platform says: “The Government of Israel will enable the Palestinians to manage their lives freely, within the framework of self-government. However, foreign affairs and defence, and matters which require coordination, will remain the responsibility of the State of Israel.”
Netanyahu, who has long headed Likud, clearly regards a future Palestinian state as an Israeli colony with limited “self-government”. Defence and foreign affairs will remain with Israel. To ensure its goal is spelt out unambiguously, the clause declares: “The government of Israel will oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.”
That’s not how the rest of the world sees it. Spain, Norway and Ireland are among 146 countries that recognise Palestine as a sovereign, independent country. The US has consistently used its veto to deny Palestine full membership of the United Nations.
In violation of international norms, Israel has meanwhile allowed Israeli settlers to illegally occupy large tracts of land in the West Bank under the nominal control of the toothless Palestinian Authority (PA) which is complicit with violent Israeli settlers. Over 4,50,000 Israelis now illegally occupy land in the West Bank, despite universal global condemnation, launching frequent armed attacks to occupy the homes of the 3 million Palestinians who live there.
Netanyahu is thus faced with an intractable triple problem: a rejuvenated Hamas rather than a defeated Hamas; reconstruction and transformation of Gaza into a modern enclave that could pose a future threat to Israel’s security; and strong global pressure on Israel to establish an independent Palestine.
Netanyahu delayed as long as he could signing the peace deal which he insists is temporary. He warns that Israel “reserves the right to resume the war”. For Israel, peace in the region is a poisoned chalice. War is Israel’s default option.
Peace carries the promise of economic prosperity to the whole region – from Gaza to the West Bank and further on to Lebanon. Israel loses its monopoly of prosperity in the region.
How long, Israelis wonder, before re-armed Hamas and Hezbollah pose an existential threat to Israel while an independent Palestine emerges from the rubble of Gaza?
Washington consensus?
Netanyahu’s best hope to avoid – or delay – these outcomes lies in Washington. While Trump is strongly pro-Israel, he is a pragmatist. He knows that an independent Palestine is a geopolitical inevitability. As a real estate developer, he also knows that reconstruction in Gaza represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
War in the Middle East has long benefited the US military-industrial complex (MIC). Without US weapons and intelligence, Israel would be untenable as an independent state. Netanyahu has tried to prolong the war in Gaza – sacrificing the interests of the families of Israeli hostages, many of whom have died in the 15-month captivity – even as he stands accused of corruption in the Supreme Court. The war delayed hearings in the case which have only recently begun.
Israel’s best hope of long-term security is to accept an independent Palestine, a rebuilt Gaza, withdrawal from the West Bank and establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia which has made an independent Palestine a precondition to normalising diplomatic and commercial ties with Israel.
General elections in Israel have been postponed due to the Gaza war. While the attacks on Hezbollah, Iran and Syria have boosted Netanyahu’s popularity, a new opinion poll showed that if elections to Israel’s 120-seat parliament, the Knesset, were held today, Netanyahu’s Likud and its coalition partners would struggle to win a majority.
Trump may be happier dealing with Netanyahu’s post-election successor. His relationship with the Israeli prime minister has been distinctly cooler than former President Joe Biden enjoyed.
India is watching developments closely. If peace holds in the region, the ambitious sea-rail-road India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) can be a trade game-changer.
An independent Palestine may be the price Israel will have to pay to ensure its security in a post-Netanyahu era.
The writer is an editor, author and publisher. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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