Quad may have to adapt to new American priorities – Firstpost

The re-emergence of Donald Trump has been even more tumultuous than initially anticipated. Surprisingly, it is not Russia and China that have borne the brunt of Trump’s unpredictable policies, but rather the United States’ closest neighbours and European allies. This shift in focus has left many questioning the future direction of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which comprises the United States, India, Japan, and Australia.

At first, there seemed to be positive signals for the Quad under Trump’s renewed leadership. The United States invited the foreign ministers of India, Japan, and Australia to the presidential inauguration—a significant strategic gesture. This invitation was just one step below those extended to right-wing ideologues leading their respective nations. Moreover, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met separately with Quad foreign ministers on his first day in office and then again collectively with them. This demonstrated that the Quad remained a priority for the new Trump administration. By choosing the Quad as his first priority, Rubio emphasised the Trump administration’s likelihood of keeping a strategic equilibrium in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in view of China’s enhanced economic and military impact. However, the brevity of the Quad ministerial meeting suggested that greater strategic coherence and focus would be necessary moving forward.

India is set to host the next Quad Summit as part of the rotational framework, and New Delhi would undoubtedly welcome the opportunity to host President Trump early in his second term. However, several challenges must be addressed before that can happen. The Quad emphasises a closer strategic partnership among its members, with a focus on the Indo-Pacific. It also aims to act as a force for public good, particularly in ASEAN and the South Pacific. The question now is: where do these objectives stand under the new Trump administration?

The three Quad partners are attempting to understand and adjust to the evolving demands of Trump’s leadership. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are both expected to visit Washington in February 2025, well before Trump delivers his first State of the Union address on March 4, 2025. However, it remains unclear when the Australian Prime Minister will receive a similar invitation.

The primary focus of these summits will be to reinforce the strong relationships that India and Japan share with the United States while aligning them with the fresh priorities of the Trump administration. India has already taken proactive measures, such as reducing its average tariffs to ASEAN levels and handling illegal immigration issues discreetly—avoiding the confrontations experienced by countries like Colombia. Meanwhile, Japan, which does not face immigration challenges, anticipates greater economic engagement with the United States. Tokyo is preparing to increase its shale energy imports from the US, a practice it began during Trump’s first term, and is also looking to expand investment in American manufacturing.

With NAFTA under strain due to Trump’s tariff policies and threats against Mexico and Canada, Japanese companies may determine that investing directly in the US is the safer route. During Trump’s first term, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe presented a map showcasing Japanese investments across the United States and the employment they generated. While this initially seemed to satisfy the Trump administration, it also likely increased their expectations for even greater investment in sectors where gaps existed or where additional efforts could be made. Japan appears to recognise this reality and is adjusting accordingly.

A key strategic driver behind the Quad is China and its ambitions to establish regional dominance and dictate its own rules. Each Quad member’s relationship with China is crucial in this equation. If the US increases pressure on China, the other Quad nations could benefit. However, if Washington strikes a deal with Beijing, the Quad members will need to maintain their own strategic autonomy to avoid being left adrift in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

The evolving nature of US-China relations will significantly impact the Quad’s strategic influence. Early indications suggest that the Trump administration is not prioritising ASEAN and the South Pacific, leaving developmental initiatives in these regions in limbo. As a result, the Quad’s efforts to act as a force for public good in these areas will have to wait for a clearer U.S. policy direction. Currently, many foreign aid programs are temporarily shelved, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) itself is undergoing potential restructuring, raising misgivings about continued US commitment to development initiatives.

However, this does not necessarily mean that all Quad initiatives in the Indo-Pacific are cancelled. Instead, they are subject to review, and the Quad partners must be prepared for a scenario in which the United States expects them to take on greater responsibility, rather than relying on Washington as the primary driver. India, Japan, and Australia may need to step up their contributions to ensure the success of Quad initiatives in the region.

As the Trump administration moves forward, the Quad must navigate an uncertain geopolitical environment. The group will need to adapt to new US priorities while maintaining its core objectives of regional security, economic cooperation, and promoting a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the Quad can sustain its momentum or if it will face significant recalibration under Trump’s leadership. Meanwhile, China, ASEAN, and the South Pacific are watching the process.
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The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.