Trump 2.0 works well with a competitive multipolar world – Firstpost

When Donald Trump won the US presidential elections, many foreign policy experts predicted greater geopolitical turbulence and uncertainty ahead. Trump was presented as a destabilising actor, a leader who would disrupt global peace and security. However, with a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine, it is obvious that Trump’s approach to global affairs is not about destabilisation or isolationism, but rather engaging with the world on different terms, using unconventional strategies to secure global peace and security.

Unpredictability as a Strategic Tool

Many foreign policy experts have dismissed Trump as an irrational actor, impulsive in his decisions. However, certain trends in his behaviour make it clear that he strategically uses “unpredictability” as a tool to achieve his foreign policy objectives. His strategy is somewhat similar to former US president Richard Nixon’s “Madman Theory”, which deliberately used volatility and irrational behaviour as a weapon and kept rivals guessing about his next move in order to gain influence.

Unlike traditional diplomatic techniques, which rely on alliances, multilateral institutions, and long-term commitments, Trump’s strategy is based on transactional bargaining. His strategy is using US power in a different way—through aggressive deal-making and unusually intense diplomatic pressure.

By constantly shifting his stance and making unusual statements, he puts opponents into uncertainty and defensive mode, eventually forcing them to agree to deals they would otherwise reject. For example, in the ongoing Ukraine peace talks, President Donald Trump is pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give the US access to Ukraine’s critical mineral resources, such as titanium, lithium, and rare earth elements, in exchange for continued American support and as compensation for previous defence commitments. This plan is a calculated move to encourage a peace treaty with Russia and reduce Zelensky’s resistance to such an arrangement.

To understand Trump’s approach, one must consider his background in business, his mercantile outlook, and his art of deal-making. His worldview is shaped by hard bargaining, negotiation tactics, and economic pragmatism, setting him apart from career politicians, who frequently engage in diplomacy based on conventional norms and ideological commitments. Trump approaches foreign affairs with a profit-driven motive and a zero-sum mindset. His willingness to renegotiate trade deals, pressure NATO allies to increase defence spending, and push for transactional agreements in international security aligns with this approach.

Moreover, Trump has repeatedly warned that under Biden, the world is heading toward a third world war. The Democrats’ interventionist policies, disguised as “moral obligations”, have resulted in widespread destruction and human catastrophe. In contrast, Trump’s strategy, which is focused on pragmatism and savvy deal-making, provides a more successful path to global security.

Refocusing on the Indo-Pacific

One of Trump’s primary strategic objectives is to stop the conflict in Ukraine and shift the United States’ strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific. Unlike Biden, who defeated the real purpose of the US Indo-Pacific strategy and pushed Russia and China together toward a “greater geostrategic alignment”, Trump recognises the need to avoid such a dangerous partnership. During his administration in 2017, Trump formally included the “Indo-Pacific strategy” in US national security strategy and defence strategy. He referred to China as a “strategic rival”, acknowledging that Beijing, not Moscow, poses the most serious challenge to US global dominance.

China’s expanding military, economic, and technology capabilities constitute a long-term challenge to US dominance. If China gains supremacy in the Indo-Pacific, it would have a spillover effect in other parts of the world, undermining America’s global position. Trump’s strategy is clear: reach a favourable settlement with Russia while focusing US resources on strategically balancing China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Competitive Multipolarity

Many commentators believe Trump has made the world more uncertain, fragmented, and turbulent. However, this volatility is not primarily due to Trump; rather, it reflects the changing nature of the international system. Unlike the Cold War era, when two superpowers dominated global politics, today’s world is multipolar, with fierce competition among major powers like the United States, China, and Russia, as well as rising powers like India, etc. This dynamic is similar to a “perfect market situation”, where firms fiercely compete for economic gains in a highly competitive environment, resulting in higher uncertainty.

Furthermore, growing non-traditional security challenges such as pandemics, unregulated artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, and contestation over the existing model of globalisation have increased the international system’s complexity. Failures of multilateralism have added to these challenges. Trump’s deal-making approach is well-suited for navigating this unpredictable environment. Instead of fixed alliances and ideological commitments, he responds flexibly to changing circumstances, forging partnerships that benefit America in a volatile and competitive globe.

Why Trump’s Foreign Policy Benefits India

Trump’s transactional approach is consistent with India’s strategic objectives. Unlike Biden’s decisions, which have frequently limited India’s flexibility, Trump’s deal-making approach gives New Delhi more strategic space to pursue its geostrategic objectives. One of the most significant benefits for India is Trump’s greater willingness to engage with Russia. His potential deal with Moscow would give New Delhi more strategic flexibility, allowing it to pursue its interests more effectively and with greater autonomy, while reducing US pressure.

Under Biden, Russia-China’s growing strategic cooperation was compromising India’s long-term geostrategic objectives. A Trump-led US administration that seeks to limit Russia and China geopolitical alignment could work in India’s favour. Moreover, New Delhi’s strategic autonomy and its flexible alignment approach—free from the constraints of formal alliances—align well with Trump’s burden-sharing strategy. This synergy allows New Delhi to engage with Trump more effectively in a turbulent global landscape.

Furthermore, Trump’s foreign policy initiatives demonstrate a strong commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. Reflecting this region as his strategic priority and his continued engagement with New Delhi, his first foreign policy engagement, just a day after his inauguration, was with the QUAD grouping. Moreover, during Modi’s recent visit to the US on February 13, several consequential agreements were reached, including TRUST (“Transforming the Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology”), which focuses on cooperation in strategic technologies, and COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology), an agreement on defence industrial cooperation roadmap, strengthening India-US ties.

Moreover, unlike Biden, who often limited this strategic cooperation to the Indo-Pacific, Trump has also shown his greater readiness to cater to the security interests of India in the South Asia region as well. For example, during their recent joint press conference in the US, in response to a question on Bangladesh and alleged US deep-state involvement there, Trump said, ‘I will leave Bangladesh to PM Modi, and he has been working on it for quite some time,’ implying greater synergy and cooperation between Washington and New Delhi in the South Asian region ahead. Unlike Biden, who pursued inconsistent strategies in this region, Trump’s approach is more strategically coherent and forward-looking and provides New Delhi with greater strategic choices.

Furthermore, Trump’s aggressive approach against Pakistan and his engagement with other countries in this region have traditionally secured India’s security interests. As during his first term, he suspended military aid to Pakistan and refrained from criticising India’s abrogation of Article 370, reflecting a greater concern for India’s security objectives in the region. His hardliner approach pushed Pakistan to reduce its backing for extremist groups, reducing security threats to India.

His non-interventionist approach to the domestic politics of other countries and hard stance on terrorism also work in India’s favour. However, the recent issues in India-US relations, such as the deportation of undocumented Indian immigrants and the potential tariff imposition, should be handled with strategic pragmatism, as they are unlikely to affect the fundamental strength of this ‘comprehensive global strategic partnership’. He has been very tough even on his close strategic allies, like Canada, Denmark, and Mexico. It only requires a pragmatic approach and strategic negotiation tactics to deal with transactional Trump, and New Delhi is in a better position to do so.

Moreover, recently India’s Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated that New Delhi is negotiating a trade deal with the US and described it as the ”mother of all trade deals”, reflecting New Delhi’s strong commitment to finding pragmatic solutions and deepening its economic ties with the US.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s foreign policy is frequently perceived as erratic, impulsive, and reckless. In reality, it is a calculated strategy based on transactional deal-making, psychological manipulation, and pragmatic realism. Unlike Biden, whose interventionist methods have destabilised global affairs, Trump aims to achieve peace via leverage and strategic pressure. For India, Trump’s second presidency could result in huge strategic gains. His approach to Russia, strategic focus on the Indo-Pacific, and transactional diplomacy provide India greater options in navigating its changing geopolitical situation. Far from being a destabilising force, Trump’s leadership is consistent with the realities of today’s multipolar world, making him a more suitable leader for global stability than the interventionist Democrats.

Imran Khurshid is a visiting research fellow at the International Centre for Peace Studies, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.