US sanctions on Pakistan part of carrot and stick policy – Firstpost
It’s been almost two weeks since Pakistan’s former all-weather ally, the United States (US),
sanctioned the country’s four entities, including the state-run aerospace and defence agency, for its ballistic missile development programme.
Announcing the measures on December 18, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that the sanctions package “targets proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery”.
According to the State Department, the Islamabad-based National Development Complex (NDC) acquired “items in furtherance of Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile programme, including special vehicle chassis intended to be used as launch support equipment for ballistic missiles and missile testing equipment” and development of ballistic missiles, including the Shaheen series.
The remaining three Karachi-based entities, Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International and Rockside Enterprise, have supplied equipment and missile-applicable items to NDC.
A day later, US deputy national security adviser Jon Finer caused an alarm. “Candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States,” he told a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace audience.
Highlighting Pakistan’s “increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors”, Finer said, “Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States.
The sudden sanctions and Finer’s alarming comments continue to make headlines with military analysts, security experts and columnists analysing them.
According to the interpretations of Joe Biden’s swan song in Pakistan ties, Islamabad’s long-range missile capability has jolted Washington, the terrorist nation endangers the US mainland and both Pakistan and China should be concerned considering their close missile development cooperation.
The main reason for the US sanctions is illogical and laughable. Pakistan and China watchers in India might have reasons to be excited, but the US reason for sanctioning the Pakistani entities is merely for public consumption.
First, the US being shocked by Pakistan’s WMD and missile development programmes is like being jolted by the rise of the Taliban and the Arab Mujahideen, led by Osama bin Laden, turning against the US, the development of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb by AQ Khan, the formation of the Islamic State in Iraq or the dislodging of Bashar al-Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
The US only acted when it was revealed that Khan had provided N-weapons-related tech to North Korea, Iran and Libya. The US intelligence knew about Khan’s activities in helping Pakistan develop nukes for more than two decades but remained silent.
America turned a blind eye to seeking the ISI’s help in countering the Soviets in Afghanistan as Khan stole centrifuge designs from the Netherlands and obtained materials and equipment for building nukes from agents in the US, the UK, Germany, South Africa, Switzerland, and Turkey.
The CIA’s Operation Cyclone was launched under President Jimmy Carter with the ISI’s help while Pakistan pursued nukes. Ronald Reagan approved a $3.2 billion economic and military package for Pakistan as the US supported the Mujahideen with Islamabad’s help until the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan in 1988. Therefore, the Pressler and Solarz amendments were rendered ineffective.
Despite authentic intel on Pakistani-Iranian nuclear cooperation and Saudi and Libyan financial assistance to Khan’s nuclear bomb project, the Regan and George HW Bush administrations looked the other way.
By 1987, Pakistan had a nuclear bomb. Subsequently, Khan turned to nuclear proliferation to assist countries, especially Iran, seeking nukes. Iranian scientists were trained in Pakistan in 1988 and were helped in the centrifuge programme in 1989.
Through a network of middlemen in around 12 nations, including the US, the UK, Turkey, Malaysia, the UAE, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, South Africa and Pakistan, Khan started selling bomb designs, advanced materials, centrifuges and components and logistical and technical assistance to other countries.
Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation also fuelled missile development as North Korea agreed to sell missiles in exchange for centrifuges with Khan visiting the country more than 10 times.
The US forced Pakistan to shut off the Khan network only after 9/11. In October 2003, a Tripoli-bound German cargo ship carrying 1,000 high-speed centrifuges was seized. America was alarmed that Muammar Gaddafi was pursuing a nuclear bomb. But the IAEA never interrogated Khan.
Second, the theory of Pakistan attacking the US mainland is ridiculous. Pakistan would need an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to attack the US and it doesn’t have one. Even if Pakistan develops an ICBM, it won’t attack America in the worst-case scenario—a US-China war in the Indo-Pacific or another military conflict with India in which Washington provides intel to New Delhi.
Third, ballistic missiles are of four kinds: short-range ballistic, or tactical, missiles (SRBMs) with a range of less than 1,000 km; medium-range ballistic, or theatre, missiles (MRBMs) with a range of 1,000-3,000 km, intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) with a range of 3,000-5,500 km and ICBMs with a range of more than 5,500 km.
Pakistan only has SRBMs, MRBMs, an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) and cruise missiles, including anti-ship.
The operational MRBMs in Pakistan’s missile inventory, Hatf 5 (1,250-1,500 km) Shaheen 2 (1,500-2,000 km) and Shaheen 3 (2,750 km), are capable of hitting India with the Shaheen 3 reaching as far as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The Abadeel MRBM, with a range of 2,200 km and capable of carrying multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, is under development. Both Shaheen 3 and Abadeel can carry nuclear and conventional warheads.
Pakistan doesn’t need an IRBM or ICBM with India as the only adversary in the subcontinent. Pakistan is developing its missile capability with a focus on India, not the US. The notion of Pakistan developing long-range missile capability to target the US is idiotic.
Fourth, the conclusion that China should be concerned about the sanctions is misconstrued. China has been assisting Pakistan in missile development for decades.
Several Pakistani missiles are either
copies and rebranded versions of Chinese missiles or have been made with its ally’s assistance.
The Shaheen 1 SRBM has several design and operational similarities with the Chinese DF-11 and DF-15 SRBMs. Shaheen 2 and Shaheen 3 MRBMs are similar to the Chinese DF-21 MRBM and DF-25 IRBM, respectively, regarding solid-fuel propulsion, mobile launch platform and overall configuration.
The Abdali SRBM series has a range, payload and design similar to the M-11 SRBM of China’s M-series.
The Hatf 5 MRBM series is a modified version of the North Korean Nodong-1 MRBM with China helping in refining and producing these missiles domestically.
The Babur land attack cruise missile has structural and technical similarities with the Chinese C-602 cruise missile and the Ra’ad air-launched cruise missile with China’s C-802 cruise missile.
Pakistan’s ASBM, SMASH, is a derivative of the Chinese CM-401ASBM in design trajectory and flight profile.
US sanctions have failed to deter China
The Pakistan-China missile cooperation continues despite several US sanctions on Chinese entities. In April, America slapped
sanctions on three Chinese companies for supplying missile items to Pakistan.
Xi’an Longde Technology Development Company Limited supplied missile equipment, including a filament winding machine that can be used to manufacture rocket motor cases, to NDC.
Tianjin Creative Source International Trade Co Ltd supplied stir welding equipment, which can be used to make propellant tanks space launch vehicles, and a linear accelerator system used in inspecting solid rocket motors.
Granpect Company supplied equipment for testing large-diameter rocket motors to Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission and NDC.
In September, four more Chinese entities were
sanctioned. Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry (RIAMB) procured equipment for testing large-diameter rocket motors, including the Shaheen 3 and Ababeel, for NDC under the Arms Export Control Act and the Export Control Reform Act.
In October, three Chinese companies, General Technology Limited, Beijing Luo Technology Development Co Ltd and Changzhou Utek Composite Company Ltd., were sanctioned for supplying brazing materials used to join components in ballistic missile rocket engines, in producing combustion chambers and supplying mandrels and other machinery used in the production of solid-propellant rocket motors.
Sanctions against powerful countries, like China or Russia, either fail or these nations find ways to circumvent them. For example, Russia continues its war against Ukraine despite several massive sanctions imposed by the US and the EU. China supplies critical components for Russian missiles and drones used to attack Ukraine despite sanctions on several Chinese firms.
China always has the option of helping Pakistan develop its missile programme by
supplying dual-use technology and using shell companies.
In January, a Karachi-bound ship from China containing two advanced Computer Numerical Control machines that could be used in Pakistan’s N-weapons programme was seized in Mumbai. A Pakistani firm, Pakistan Wings Pvt Ltd, facilitated the shipment and masked the original consignee as Cosmos Engineering.
In March 2022, a shipment of thermo-electric instruments sourced from Italy-based M/s Distek Strumenti & Misure S.r.I. (DSM) by Cosmos Engineering and meant for AQ Khan Research Laboratory was seized in Mumbai. In February 2020, an autoclave, used to sterilise pressure vessels, manufactured by a sanctioned Chinese company and destined for Pakistan, was found hidden at the bottom of a ship and seized in Gujarat.
Moreover, though the sanctions prohibit such state-owned Chinese companies from dealing with America, these entities have hardly any commercial relations in the US.
America’s Pakistan hypocrisy
Successive US administrations have shown their double standards in dealing with Pakistan with their carrot and stick policy—use of American military equipment in the 1965 War, backing Islamabad against New Delhi in the 1971 War, ignoring Khan’s nuclear proliferation, allowing the export of terrorists, including Mujahideen, to J&K and turning a blind eye to gruesome terrorist attacks in India.
As Donald Trump takes charge in January, India should be extremely guarded and aware of the decades-old American hypocrisy on Pakistan.
The latest sanction against the four Pakistani entities has generated excitement in India with some reports calling it a wake-up call for the US.
However, American sanctions against Pakistan date back to 1977, when the US terminated military and economic aid without officially invoking the Symington Amendment. Pakistan sought a French reprocessing plant but France halted the supply of nuclear equipment in August 1978 due to the sanctions.
Several other sanctions were imposed in the subsequent years: the Glenn/Symington Amendment in 1979, the Pressler Amendment in 1990, the Glenn Amendment again in 1998 and the 2017-18 sanctions based on the Foreign Assistance Act, 1961.
In all these decades, Pakistan developed an arsenal of 170 nuclear bombs and developed missiles with Chinese and North Korean assistance.
The latest US sanctions will also not deter Pakistan from developing its WMDs and missiles. Though the sanctions are serious considering that a government agency has been sanctioned, these entities can always create shell companies and continue to import ballistic missile technology and components. Moreover, NDC imports more from Chinese companies that Western companies.
As Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former representative to the UN, said, “This is the sixth or the seventh time in the last four years that sanctions have been imposed on Pakistani entities. They have zero impact.
Former UN and US Ambassador Dr. Maleeha Lodhi pointed out how U.S. sanctions on Pakistan’s entities were ineffective and would not alter Pakistan’s missile policy or defense priorities.@LodhiMaleeha @OmarButtPK @NewsroomptvW @MatiurRehman786 pic.twitter.com/6ZgSozHeeK
— PTV World (@WorldPTV) December 21, 2024
“They will not change Pakistan’s missile policy,” she added.
Hussain Haqqani also said that the sanctions suggest that “this is nothing more than an expression of disapproval”.
امریک اور پاکستان میں سفارتی سطح پر میزائیل پروگرام سمیت تمام موضوعات پر بات چیت جاری رہنی چاہئیے لیکن جس تنفیذی حکم کے تحت تازہ پابندیاں لگائی گئی ہیں اُسے پڑھ کر اندازہ ہوگا کہ یہ ناپسندیدگی کے اظہار سے زیادہ کچھ نہیں۔ ان پابندیوں میں کوئی کاٹ نہیں ہے۔ pic.twitter.com/0d5TxfLwSu
— Husain Haqqani (@husainhaqqani) December 19, 2024
The US changes its Pakistan policy per its strategic and military needs.
When America wanted to defeat the USSR in Afghanistan and hunt bin Laden after 9/11, it embraced Pakistan. When the Haqqani Network and the Taliban were hurting American interests, Trump cancelled $300 million in military aid to Pakistan in September 2018 for not acting against the terror groups.
In November of the same year, Trump suspended $1.66 billion in security assistance to Pakistan for not doing “a damn thing” for the US after saying that bin Laden was “living in Pakistan right next to the military academy [Abbottabad]. Everybody in Pakistan knew he was there.”
Pakistan doesn’t do “a damn thing” for US: Donald Trump. Referring to Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Trump said “.. living in Pakistan right next to the military academy, everybody in Pakistan knew he was there..” pic.twitter.com/HqPROhlmMR
— Naila Inayat (@nailainayat) November 18, 2018
Four years later, the US again confirmed its double standards. A few days after saying that Pakistan was “one of the
most dangerous countries in the world” due to its nuclear programme, Biden resumed military aid in October 2022. The US announced a $450 million F-16 sustainment package for Pakistan on the pretext of fighting terrorism.
It’s high time for India to realise the decades-long use-and-throw American policy. Yesterday, it was Pakistan. Tomorrow, it could be India.
America’s main aim is to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. India perfectly fits in the US strategic and military interests in the region.
The US wants to counter further Pakistani-Chinese collaboration. According to the Department of Defence’s
2024 annual report to Congress, ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China’, Pakistan is one of the more than 12 countries where China is “very likely considering and planning for additional military logistics facilities to support naval, air, and ground forces projection” beyond its base in Djibouti.
A December 2022
RAND report, ‘The People’s Liberation Army’s Search for Overseas Basing and Access, ’ also identifies Pakistan as a country where China could set up an overseas base. “There are strong indications that Djibouti will not remain China’s sole overseas military facility. “Four countries in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific scored in the top 25 per cent of all countries: Pakistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Myanmar.”
Pakistan’s maximum naval assets, supplied by China, are at the Karachi and Jinnah bases, where Chinese technicians are stationed. In 2013, Pakistan leased out Gwadar port to China for 40 years. In southwestern Pakistan, Gwadar is a major part of China’s BRI. It is near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which one-sixth of the world’s total oil consumption and one-third of LNG pass through daily.
The US fears China could set up a naval and air base at Gwadar port, where large Chinese warships could dock for repair, replenishment, and even permanent deployment. China, which has the world’s largest navy, could dominate the Indian Ocean if it does so.
Moreover, Chinese missiles can target American bases in the Western Pacific (Guam) and the Indian Ocean (Diego Garcia), ports and aircraft carriers in the region. A Pentagon war game based on 2030 in 2020 and a similar exercise in 2018 showed China targeting Guam in a war with the US over Taiwan.
The US ended its Continuous Bomber Presence programme in April 2020. The B-52, B1 and B2 bombers were removed over fears that the Chinese DF-26 IRBM, or ‘Guam Killer’, could target Guam, from where the three bombers undertook the Bomber Assurance and Deterrence (BAAD) mission in six-month rotations to reassure allies South Korea and Japan.
Though BAAD hasn’t been resumed, the US has started flying the bombers to Guam and Diego Garcia this year to flex its airpower.
In August, B-2s landed on Diego Garcia. In June, several B-2s landed in Guam for the first time in years. In May, B-1s arrived in Guam to support a routine Bomber Task Force deployment. In April, B-52s arrived on Diego Garcia.
US aircraft carriers in the region are also within the striking range of China’s DF-21 MRBM’s ‘carrier killer’ version DF-21D and the DF-26B, the anti-ship version of DF-26.
The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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