What rise of right amid political crisis in Romania means for Europe – Firstpost

Romania, which became the first Soviet bloc ‘Iron Curtain’ country to join NATO in 2004 and the European Union in 2007, often receives little attention in the global media despite its strategic location. The country shares borders with the Republic of Moldova to the northeast, Ukraine to the north, Hungary to the northwest, Serbia to the southwest, and Bulgaria to the south. However, over the past three months, a series of political earthquakes have shaken Romania, leading to confusion, chaos, and disruption. Let’s trace recent developments in Romania:

Chaos, Confusion, and Crisis

Since the December 1989 revolution, which resulted in nearly 1,100 deaths, Romania has struggled with political turmoil, marking the collapse of the Iron Curtain and the birth of a democratic nation. Yet, the political earthquakes of recent months have been unprecedented, with their roots tracing back to the tumultuous period following the last presidential election.

Turbulent Times

Romania has been rocked by political, economic, and social turmoil since the 2019 presidential election. Like many European nations, the dual shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with which Romania shares a border, have exacerbated challenges.

Inflation soared to nearly 17 per cent in November 2022, among the highest rates in the EU, and millions of Ukrainian refugees flooded the country. This crisis has caused skyrocketing food and energy prices, leading to widespread protests from farmers, truckers, educators, and others.

An insightful article in Politico on November 28 highlighted the disparities in Romania, including gaps in education and the divide between Bucharest and the rest of the country. Unsurprisingly, campaigning in the first round of the presidential election largely focused on the soaring cost of living, with Romania having the EU’s largest percentage of people at risk of poverty. Resentment over handouts to Ukrainian refugees also played a major role in the election.

Despite the ongoing turbulence, the political maelstrom began in earnest only after the surprising result of the first round of the presidential election. But before diving into that, it’s important to understand Romania’s political system.

Semi-Presidential System

Romania’s government combines elements of both presidential and parliamentary systems. The president has substantial powers, such as appointing the prime minister, commanding the armed forces, and having the final say on foreign policy issues. The prime minister leads the government and handles domestic policy. The president serves a five-year term and has significant authority in national security, foreign policy, and judicial appointments. Given the president’s central role, the presidential election holds great significance in Romania, and the surprising outcome of the first round of voting on November 24 triggered a major political upheaval.

This is What Happened

On November 24, a little-known 62-year-old far-right independent candidate, Călin Georgescu, shocked the nation by securing 22.9 per cent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election. This unexpected result ended the campaign for the pre-election favourite, populist social-democrat Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, and set up a runoff between Georgescu and center-right opposition leader Elena Lasconi, who earned 19.2 per cent of the vote.

Also Ran the Race

Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), narrowly missed securing the second spot by a few hundred votes, with just 19.16 per cent support. For the first time since 1989, no PSD candidate made it to the presidential runoff. Another far-right candidate, populist nationalist George Simion, leader of the Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR), placed fourth with 13.87 per cent of the vote. After Georgescu’s surprising success, Simion urged his supporters to vote for Georgescu in the final round. Two other candidates—former Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) and former NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoana—fared poorly, with 8.79 per cent and 6.32 per cent of the vote, respectively.

Who is Călin Georgescu?

When Georgescu first declared his candidacy, he was a fringe figure in Romanian politics. Now, more details about him have come to light. Georgescu, a 62-year-old former representative for Romania at the United Nations Environment Program, holds a doctorate in pedology. He previously worked in Romania’s environment ministry and was a member of the far-right AUR party, from which he was expelled for his radical views. Known for his anti-NATO stance and admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Georgescu’s past statements have stirred controversy, such as his praise for Romania’s former dictator Ion Antonescu. These remarks led to a criminal investigation and Georgescu’s withdrawal from consideration as the AUR’s prime ministerial candidate.

Proving Poll-Pundits Wrong

Georgescu’s performance in the election defied predictions, with most analysts and pollsters giving him little chance of success. His surprising result, which defied expectations, marked one of the biggest upsets in Romania’s post-communist history. His campaign, based on the slogan “Restore the dignity of the Romanian nation”, was built around social media, particularly TikTok, where he used bots to spread his message widely. His success without the backing of a political party was a testament to his strategic use of digital platforms and outreach to the Romanian diaspora.

Stunningly Annulled

On December 6, just days before the scheduled second round of the presidential election, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the first-round results. The court’s decision came after President Klaus Iohannis declassified intelligence suggesting that Romania was the target of “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” that allegedly benefited Georgescu’s campaign. In light of this, the court ordered the annulment to ensure the correctness and legality of the election process.

Deepening the Turmoil

The annulment deepened Romania’s political turmoil. Allegations and counter-allegations emerged among key political players, and protests erupted in front of the Constitutional Court. Georgescu’s lawyer filed an appeal to reinstate the first-round results. In response, Romania’s ruling coalition set new dates for a rerun of the election on May 4 and May 18, nearly six months after the original vote.

Impeachment Motion

Following the annulment of the presidential election, the far-right’s support base surged. On January 16, three far-right parties, accounting for 35 per cent of parliamentary votes, brought forward an impeachment motion against President Iohannis. The motion accused Iohannis of playing a role in annulling the election results, which deprived Georgescu of a likely victory.

The End

On February 10, President Klaus Iohannis, after more than ten years in office, announced his resignation to prevent a certain impeachment. Iohannis’ resignation, effective on February 13, came as it became apparent that many lawmakers, including those from pro-European parties, would support the impeachment motion.

Writing on the Wall

Romania’s new presidential election dates are set for May 4 and May 18. However, the writing on the wall seems clear: unless an unexpected turn of events occurs, Călin Georgescu, the far-right ultranationalist, is poised to secure the presidency.

What It Means for Romania

If Georgescu wins, Romania will see a far-right president and possibly a far-right prime minister. Such a development would radically shift Romania’s foreign policy, potentially causing fissures with NATO and the EU, undermining its economy, and plunging the nation into deeper political and economic instability.

What It Means for Europe

Romania’s political shifts are consistent with the broader far-right surge that Europe is witnessing off late. The examples are Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) winning the country’s parliamentary election in September and Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) winning the state election in Thuringia, marking the first time a far-right party won a state election in Germany since World War II. France has witnessed a resurgence of the far right lately, and Victor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010, is the head of the right-wing populist Fidesz party in the country.

The increasing influence of far-right groups raises questions about the future of NATO and the EU, and only time will tell where Europe is headed to?

The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.