With its ‘Axis of Resistance’ demolished, Iran faces a regional reset – Firstpost

Who would have thought at the beginning of 2024 that by the time the year was ready to pass into history, Iran which was fighting a successful proxy battle against Israel in Gaza, would find itself alone, vulnerable and unsure of itself by the end of the year, having been dealt repeated blows all through the year. As the events of the year unfolded, Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ was taken apart through a prolonged and very determined military campaign by Israel and the US.

As a result, Israel was able to completely eliminate Hamas’s military capabilities in Gaza. It also took apart Hezbollah in the North and invaded the West Bank and the Golan Heights, virtually eliminating any chances of a repeat of 7/10 terror attack into Israel. Along the way, the dramatic collapse of Syrian regime towards the end of the year was perhaps the final nail in the coffin as, with the fall of Assad regime in Syria, the vital link between Iran and its proxies was broken, leaving no direct avenue for Iran to provide military and material support to groups fighting against Israel in the ongoing war in Gaza.

How the ‘Axis’ unravelled

While the war in Gaza broke out in October last year, events commencing from 30th July this year, coming mostly in the form of targeted assassinations, made the maximum impact and have left an irreversible impact on the region. In a matter of months, all that Iran had invested politically and militarily to keep Israel occupied at its borders, fell apart.

It commenced with triple assassinations on 30 July when three key leaders were killed across three capitals on the same night. Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. In Beirut, an airstrike killed senior Hezbollah military commander and No.2 in hierarchy, Faud Shukra and in Damascus, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Forces of Iran, was killed too.

Sensing an opportunity, Israel soon expanded its operations to new areas, targeting other groups in the resistance. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) launched operations into the West Bank on 27th August, raiding key locations including the city of Jenin, in a bid to ‘root out militants’, dealing a severe blow to the Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and virtually eliminating any remaining resistance from the West Bank.

However, the most spectacular success for Israeli intelligence was yet to take place. The pager attacks targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon on 17 September, followed by explosion of mobile telephones of Hezbollah cadre on 18 September were a perfect example of long-term planning and foresight, deeply entrenched and infiltrated mechanisms and successful execution for maximum impact. While Hezbollah was still in a state of shock, IDF entered South Lebanon on 1 October, to drive Hezbollah northwards well clear of Litani River as well as degrade and destroy the military capability to the maximum. Along with the ground operations, successive elimination of senior leadership of Hezbollah continued, culminating in the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September, virtually dealing a death blow to Hezbollah. Although Hezbollah kept fighting hard and did not allow IDF to make any substantial gains on the ground, it was clear that it was ‘advantage Israel’ in South Lebanon. The ceasefire deal with Hezbollah on 26 November too was agreed upon, largely on Israeli terms.

In Gaza, Israel’s punitive strikes have continued non-stop. More than 46,500 people have been killed in Gaza and the Gaza Strip has been almost flattened to the ground. However, the killing of Hamas Chief and main architect of the 7th October terror attack, Yahya Sinwar on 16th October has not only delivered a deadly blow to Hamas militarily but has also led to leadership vacuum in Hamas itself.

Syrian debacle: The last straw

With Hamas, Hezbollah and PIJ taken care of, the only threat to future consolidation and regrouping within these groups came from Iran, their principal benefactor. And, for Iran, Syria was the most important lynchpin in all this, due to its geographical location abutting Israel and Lebanon as well as close ties with the Assad regime. The collapse of the Assad regime on 8 December in a matter of just over 10 days was shocking as well as dramatic.

It all started on 27 November when a coordinated assault was launched from the North and Northwest in Syria. The attack was led by the Sunni militant group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and was supported by the Syrian National Army (SNA), also known as the Free Syrian Army, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) made up of Kurdish fighters, also known as the Peoples’ Protection Units (YPG).

By 29 November, Idlib and Alleppo were in rebel control and by 8 December, the rebels entered Damascus. Syrian army did not offer any resistance and President Assad quickly flew out to Russia, seeking asylum. And with it, the last and perhaps the most vital link in Iran’s regional strategy across the Levant fell apart.

Fragile domestic situation adds to the woes

It is not as if Iran has lost out badly on its regional strategy only. Domestically too, it was a tough year which threw unprecedented challenges at the regime. The untimely death President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on 19 May 2024, led to untimely political uncertainty. Raisi was very close to the Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei and was widely considered to take over as the next Supreme Leader. His untimely death and the failing health of the Supreme Leader has led to great political uncertainty for the regime. It has led to speculations and rumors on Supreme Leader’s health as well as succession plan, with some media reports in November indicating that the Supreme leader has secretly picked his second son Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor and that he may abdicate before his death, which may not turn out to be a very popular choice in the country.

Also, the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as the president after he beat Saeed Jalili through a runoff held on 5 July 2024 was a surprise as it was expected that a conservative hardliner like Jalili would prevail over the competition and keep pursuing the hardliner approach of previous president.

Plus, some measures taken by the government has led to massive protests on the streets, especially when it comes to restrictions on women. A ‘Hijab Law’ which would have would introduced harsher punishments for women and girls for exposing their hair, forearms or lower legs and had been heavily criticized by rights activists, had to be withdrawn by the government facing severe all round backlash.

Economically too, Iran is facing tough times. The revenues have falling and the currency is in a free fall. The situation has got aggravated due to exacerbating inflation, unemployment, and poverty. Despite the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook published in November 2024 estimating that Iran’s inflation will decline to 31.7 per cent in 2024 from 40.7 per cent last year, the rate of inflation still remains high and a big worry for families in Iran. To add to the woes, Iranian currency ‘Rial’ hit an all-time low of 780,250 rials to the US dollar on 23 December 2024. Iran’s Economy Minister Abdolnasser Hemmati, acknowledged the economic difficulty being faced by the country and attributed it to the recent upheaval in Syria, tensions with Israel along with threats to the economy as US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office in January.

Energy crisis too has added to the worsening situation as government offices, schools, banks and businesses in major provinces and in the capital Tehran have been largely closed in December due to worsening fuel and power shortages as temperatures dropped to subzero levels. President Masoud Pezeshkian who had earlier announced blackouts across the nation, apologized to the public for the fuel shortages, signalling that the situation is unlikely to change during the winter, adding, “God willing, we will try next year so these things won’t happen.”

Iran is on the backfoot

With Hamas badly beaten in Gaza, Hezbollah degraded and demoralized in Lebanon and Syria overrun by rebels, situation could not have been worse for Iran in the region. The two rounds of exchange of direct military strikes with Israel, once in April and then in October have resulted in Iran being forced to join the battle directly with Israel, for the first time. It has resulted in its defences being exposed to Israeli or western attacks for the first time and its vulnerabilities in air defense greatly exposed.

Of the 3H (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) which have been fighting for Iran all along, only the Houthis still remain effective in targeting Israel with long range missiles. Plus, there is hardly any traction in the Arab world for the Palestine issue, except for routine statements condemning Israeli actions, leaving Iran and its proxies to do the heavy lifting, by continuing to fight for the cause militarily against Israel.

Domestically too, with all that is happening in the country, economy, Hijab Law, women rights, succession plan of Supreme Leader etc., Iran faces an uphill battle. The return of Donald Trump as US president in January 2025 and the threat of return of ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran presents a frightful situation, at least on the domestic front.

Need for Strategic Re-balancing

It is therefore clear that Iran cannot continue to fight the war in Gaza the way it has been fighting till now, as its resources as well as critical links have been rendered ineffective. Also, it is costing a lot, especially at a time when the economy is facing severe head winds. In such a situation, it is best to take a tactical retreat even if looks like accepting defeat in that moment, recalibrate and regroup before taking the next step. Taking a step back also gives time to carry out a detailed SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threats) analysis and come up with a fresh strategy for the future. It also helps in preserving what is left before it too becomes exposed or destroyed.

Iran may therefore look at the following options to rebalance itself in the region:

• With the ceasefire already in effect in Southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, persuade Hamas to accept ceasefire in Gaza for the time being, even if it seems like succumbing to defeat.

• Stop Houthis from firing missiles at Israel sporadically because a stray missile once in few days will not make any significant effect on the military situation. On the contrary, Israeli strikes in Yemen can cause long term damage to infrastructure.

• Pull out of the Palestine issue. If the Sunni Arab countries including Saudi Arabia and Jordan do not seem interested in preventing Israel from obliterating the hopes of a ‘Two State Solution’ forever, why should Iran, which is a Shia state, gamble its nationhood on it?

• Review and recalibrate support in the region. Ensure that Iraqi regime stays strong and aligned with Iran and that there is no trouble from Afghanistan or Pakistan.

• Open lines of communication with the new Syrian regime. If Iran could have close ties with Hamas and Taliban, both of which are Sunni Muslim groups, Iran can well align with new Syrian regime.

• Closer ties with Turkey is essential in the newly evolving dynamics in the region and Iran should work on it.

• Work on closer consolidation of ties with Saudi Arabia, UAE and other key countries in the GCC. Initiate confidence building mechanisms to help the Arab world overcome the insecurities with respect to Iran.

• Start working on how to deal with the Trump 2.0 in the US, especially with regards to its nuclear program. Iran should remember that the nuclear programme is its trump card and key to survival. In no way should it give it away in any form, under any pressure. Remember Ukraine! Could the Russia Ukraine war have panned out the way it has, if Ukraine had not given up its nuclear weapons?

• Work on an acceptable and smooth transition of leadership from the current Supreme Leader of Iran, to ensure regime continuity.

• Simultaneously, work on strengthening its military capabilities, especially in air-defense and air power. In this, key collaboration with Russia and China would be vital.

• Work on additional measures of reviving the economy and improving oil sales, keeping in mind that the option of selling oil through Syria is no longer there and that the Trump administration is likely impose greater restrictions on Iran’s trade in the coming months.

Conclusion

The list of options given above is neither complete nor prescriptive. However, the fact that Iran needs to recalibrate and rebalance is beyond doubt. The structures and alliances that it built across the region may have been dented but those can always be rebuilt. Iran is not a modern state carved out through random boundaries drawn in the sand by colonial powers. It is a civilizational state with proud history, which has so far dealt with everything that has been thrown at it in the past, with patience and perseverance. What is required now is smart thinking, building bridges across the Arab world and building up strength and capabilities internally.

Col Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and West Asia expert. During his service, he has been Director in Military Intelligence as well as Director in the Ministry of External Affairs. His X handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.